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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

Good Americans of all political views should deplore the assassination of GOP activist Charlie Kirk in unequivocal terms. The New York Times editorial on the assassination put it well: “Such violence is antithetical to America. The First Amendment — the first for a reason — enshrines our rights to freedom of speech and expression. Our country is based on the principle that we must disagree peacefully. Our political disagreements may be intense and emotional, but they should never be violent. This balance requires restraint. Americans have to accept that their side will lose sometimes and that they may feel angry about their defeats. We cannot act on that anger with violence…Since last year alone, a gunman killed a member of the Minnesota State Legislature and her husband and shot another Minnesota politician and his wife; a man set fire to the home of Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania; and a would-be assassin shot Donald Trump on the campaign trail. In 2022, an attacker broke into Representative Nancy Pelosi’s home and fractured her husband’s skull. In 2021, a violent mob attacked Congress, smashing windows and brutalizing police officers. In 2017, a gunman shot four people at a Republican practice for the congressional baseball game, badly wounding Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana.” Free speech remains the essential cornerstone of American democracy. Those who resort to violence to try and silence the views of others are committing the most unAmerican of atrocities.

A choice quote from Democratic strategist James Carville, from “Bringing back working-class Democrats” by Scott Reeder at The Illinois Times: “Carville agreed that the trans rights debate has become an albatross for Democrats, particularly those in rural areas…“It got ginned up,” he said. “When we were using phrases like ‘defund the police,’ or ‘reparations’ or that kind of stuff, people were willing to believe other things about Democrats like we wanted to have males running in girls’ track meets or we wanted to have gender-neutral bathrooms. … as we recede from this identity stupidity, it’s going to become less and less potent. … This was a giant mistake. There’s no other way to say it.”…In an interview with IT, the chief political strategist for President Bill Clinton said the Democratic Party’s brand has been damaged in rural areas…“I don’t think you can overestimate the damage that the language of the identity left has (done to) hurt rural Democrats. … Language really took a toll on the brand of the party, and you know, thank God people are pushing back on it. I’ll give you an example: ‘Defund the police.’ They are the stupidest three words in the history of the English language. Only 15% of the party (liked) this language, but its damage to the general party brand was much greater. This was an idiotic idea, and everybody knows it now. And it’s going to take probably this (election) cycle to wash most of the stench off of us.”

In “Trump’s ICE Just Wrecked Massive Business Investment Deal for the U.S.,” Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling writes at The New Republic: “South Korean businesses have suspended at least 22 U.S. projects after an ICE raid on a Hyundai Motor factory site in Georgia detained hundreds of South Korean workers…Some 475 employees, including 300 South Koreans, were taken into custody Thursday at the Savannah-area battery plant. Videos released by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials showed the detained workers in shackles and chains. The raid shocked Seoul, a key U.S. ally, where people expressed a sense of betrayal by Washington…The facility was part of a $4.3 billion joint venture that was slated for completion later this year. It was expected to create 8,500 jobs that would support the car company’s nearby electric vehicle plan, but construction on the factory was put on pause after the raid…Work on at least 22 other factory sites with ties to South Korea has also been halted, reported The Korean Economic Daily. Those facilities are involved in industries related to automobiles, shipbuilding, steel, and electrical equipment…South Korean companies with U.S. business interests have canceled travel plans and recalled their U.S.-based staff, fearing that their employees could be affected by more raids…“Korean workers are being treated like criminals for building factories that Washington itself lobbied for,” a company executive in Seoul told the business newspaper. “If this continues, investment in the U.S. could be reconsidered.” More here.

Josh Marshall writes in “What’s Unmentioned in the Intra-Dem Shutdown Debate” at Talking Points Memo: “As we’ve been discussing for a week there’s a big argument among Democrats about the looming shutdown fight. Senate Democrats seem set on making it a negotiation about Obamacare subsidies, the biggest part of the BBB cuts that kick in before 2026. Meanwhile, you have a growing chorus of people who aren’t Senate Democrats saying this is wrong. It’s not time for small-bore policy revisions. You’ve got to do something dramatic to rein in Trump’s increasingly dictatorial rule. I also see Lakshya Jain and Matt Yglesias saying that yes, maybe it’s time for a confrontation. But if you’re going to have a confrontation, you need to make that stand on the issue where your issue advantage is the greatest. And that’s on the health care subsidies. And at least on the first part of that I absolutely agree. Tariffs are actually pretty salient too. But let’s set that aside for a moment. Because there’s an unspoken part of this equation that makes all the difference…So let’s get that clear and on the table…Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats are making it very clear they don’t want a shutdown. They may be willing to risk one, but they really want to avoid it. Their thinking is that Trump’s getting unpopular on his own and a shutdown gives him an opportunity to spread the blame. Suddenly the Democrats own part of everything going haywire. That is a big part of the reason for focusing so tightly on the Obamacare subsidies. Because there’s already a slice of Republicans who very much want to do the same thing. That’s mostly the endangered members in the House and to a degree in the Senate. The leadership and White House won’t say so of course but they’d probably like to kick those cuts past the 2026 midterms as well because they are almost as invested in those endangered members not losing their races as the members themselves are. Donald Trump personally is probably even more invested than some of them are.” More here.

2 comments on “Political Strategy Notes

  1. Victor on

    https://www.joshbarro.com/p/more-democrats-need-to-say-it-sports

    This issue will not go away. The states rights approach is entirely contradictory, specially for a Democratic party that has not defended any major societal issue as a state question for a very long time (and that -as noted in the article- actually tried to use federal powers to settle this question).

    Gay marriage was a major political question from 1993 to 2015 (14 federal election cycles).

    During this period Democrats did actually come up with many compromises and had more credibility arguing for local approaches, but only after rebuking activists again and again.

    This made activists more creative in their campaign to convince public opinion.

    The current approach is damaging in the long term to transgender people. In the end culture matters more than the law.

    The law will never achieve societal acceptance by itself and under the radar discrimination would continue as well as prolonging the political fight needlessly.

    The legalistic approach is very similar to the one taken by the abortion rights movement from Roe until the reversal of Roe. It is a fundamental mistake.

    Reply
  2. Victor on

    “Democracy” is not the winning argument for a shutdown that many centrist pundits think it is. It has never been.

    On the question of defense of democracy, the public has been evenly split for a very long time between which party embodies the idea.

    One reason for this is because one party has been focused on procedural democracy and the other on substantive democracy. Democrats have been focused on defending institutions against the perceived bigoted majorities while Republicans have been saying that democracy has become flawed and is ignoring the will of the masses.

    As long as the public doesn’t identify Democrats as the party that “looks out for people like me”, I believe any talk of grandiose tactics is doomed.

    Tactics can’t overcome failed strategy and damaged brand, much less entirely contradictory ideology/philosophy.

    So the next question is which party is more primed to capitalize on the possible second order effects of a shutdown.

    Democrats have spent the past year complaining about attacks on public sector unions and grants, only to now say that actually this doesn’t matter as much as defending the (by now gone) status quo ante on budgetary governance and some abstract notion of democracy.

    Democrats are going to further break with traditions of budgetary bipartisanship because Republicans are using every lever of legislative majoritarianism combined with executive power?

    Democrats are complaining incessantly about Trump using the dictatorial powers of a presidency they said was virtually impotent during the Obama and Biden years?

    The same pundits that came up with the condescending “Green Lantern” defense of Obama’s timidity now say we must shut down the government with barely a few weeks to communicate this to a public that is at probably its highest point of political cynicism ever.

    This is simply rich.

    Wait, the pundits are the rich ones who again won’t suffer any consequences for their political malpractice.

    Reply

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