From: “Democrats, GOP test their playbooks as Trump looms over elections in New Jersey and Virginia: In both states, Democratic candidates for governor are distancing themselves from their party’s far-left wing in campaigns focused instead on rising costs” by the Associated Press: “Democrats and Republicans are testing dueling playbooks in fall elections that will decide the leadership of Virginia and New Jersey — and perhaps a new direction for the parties heading into next year’s midterms…In both states, Democratic candidates for governor are distancing themselves from their party’s far-left wing — and its most divisive people and priorities — in campaigns focused on rising costs and the economy under President Donald Trump’s leadership. The move reflects what some operatives see as a critical lesson from the 2024 national elections, when Democrats faced a backlash for supporting so-called “woke” social policies…As Democrats race to the center, their GOP opponents in both Democratic-leaning states are largely unwilling to separate themselves from Trump, his controversial policies or his “Make America Great Again” supporters. Trump’s GOP continues to rally around him, shrugging off low approval ratings and opposition to his federal workforce cuts that have especially affected Virginia. That’s even as the Republican candidates hope to attract independents and even moderate Democrats to win in November…It is a delicate balance, and one that could inform both parties’ strategies a year before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress.”

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman report about “The 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Races: Rating Changes in Virginia, Iowa, and Maine” at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and note; “As the post-Labor Day sprint to the November gubernatorial races begins, we are upgrading Democrats in Virginia, moving that race to Likely Democratic. New Jersey remains as Leans Democratic…For the 2026 races, open seats in Iowa and Maine get more competitive in our ratings…Republicans should be able to easily win a new seat in Missouri as the result of a new proposed gerrymander, the latest development in the fast-moving redistricting wars…Overall, Republicans hold 27 governorships and Democrats hold 23. Democrats are favored to flip Virginia this year, and Republicans are favored to flip Kansas next year. Otherwise, Democrats are defending the three Toss-ups. Democrats will hope to cut into the Leans Republican category—specifically Georgia, Iowa, and Nevada—to try to make gains while playing defense elsewhere. Maybe some longer-shot targets come into play for them, too, like Alaska or Ohio. Midterm years sometimes feature gubernatorial waves in favor of the non-presidential party, which was a feature of years like 2006, 2010, and 2018, all years that the party not holding the presidency netted roughly half a dozen governorships in the midterm election. But that doesn’t seem as likely this year unless there is a Democratic megawave that leads to upsets that aren’t really on our radar right now. As of now, we think the net gubernatorial party change might be more modest, as it was in 2014 and 2022. And it’s not out of the question that Republicans will come out of the 2026 gubernatorial cycle with a net gain in governorships, which would cut against the normal midterm trend of presidential party loss.” The map:

The rift among Trump’s business supporters just got a lot wider. In “Billionaire CEO who voted for Trump sounds the alarm on Fed attacks,” Matt Egan reports at CNN Business:  “While many CEOs have stayed silent during President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve, hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin is speaking out about the dangers…Trump risks “stoking both higher inflation and higher long-term rates” by undermining the independence of the Fed, Griffin co-wrote in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal on Sunday titled “Trump’s risky game with the Fed.”…“The president’s strategy of publicly criticizing the Fed, suggesting the dismissal of governors and pressuring the central bank to adopt a more permissive stance towards inflation carries steep costs,” wrote Griffin, CEO of Citadel; and Anil Kashyap, a professor at the Chicago Booth Business School and a consultant to the Chicago Fed’s research department…The duo warns that history shows how this strategy can backfire, including the Nixon-era pressure on the Fed in the 1970s that set the stage for the Great Stagflation crisis…In a worst-case scenario, if the Fed visibly bows to political pressure and permits inflation to rise unchecked, tens of millions of retired Americans will see their savings diminished,” Griffin and Kashyap wrote. “Senior voters — tired of bearing the brunt of inflation — could cost the administration dearly in the midterms.”

Nor will business leaders be much impressed by what the Trump Administration has done to public appreciation of capitalism’s role in American society. As Jeffrey M. Jones reports in “Image of Capitalism Slips to 54% in U.S.” at Gallup: “Americans are more positive toward capitalism than socialism, but the 54% viewing capitalism favorably is down from 60% in 2021 and near that level in most prior years. Americans remain more negative (57%) than positive (39%) toward socialism, with little movement in these attitudes over time…Gallup first measured Americans’ opinions of various economic systems or aspects of the U.S. economy in 2010 and has repeated the question six times since then, including in an Aug 1-20 survey…Democrats and independents view capitalism less positively this year, each showing eight-percentage-point declines since 2021. For the first time, less than half of Democrats (42%) view capitalism positively, while a slight majority of independents (51%) still do. Republicans’ views are essentially unchanged, with three-quarters holding a positive opinion…Stability in U.S. adults’ opinions of socialism obscures Democrats’ more positive views of it over time, from 50% rating it positively in the initial 2010 reading to roughly two-thirds in three readings since 2019. Those increases have been mostly offset by declines in positive ratings of socialism among Republicans. Independents’ ratings of socialism have generally been steady…Democrats are the only partisan group of the three that views socialism more positively than capitalism — 66% to 42%, respectively. Independents are modestly more pro-capitalism than pro-socialism (51% vs. 38%), while Republicans are overwhelmingly so (74% vs. 14%).” Not that advocating for any particular “ism” is going to win votes for any candidates. But there appears to be a split in public attitudes toward big vs. small business. “This year’s survey asked Americans to evaluate free enterprise, big business and small business in addition to capitalism and socialism. Americans are overwhelmingly positive toward small business (95%) and free enterprise (81%), as they have consistently been. They are far more negative toward big business, with 37% rating it positively and 62% negatively.”