Those who have long trusted the impartiality of the Bureau of Labor Statistics should get ready for a new era of hyper-partisan statistics, thanks to President Trump’s latest initiative to politicize all government institutions. As Nicholas Kerr reports at abcnews.com: “Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers called President Donald Trump’s accusation without providing evidence that the top Bureau of Labor Statistics official manipulated jobs report numbers “a preposterous charge” on Sunday…Trump ordered the removal of Erika McEntarfer, the U.S. commissioner of Labor Statistics, on Aug. 1 after the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added a mere 73,000 jobs in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised down totals for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs…”These numbers are put together by teams of literally hundreds of people following detailed procedures that are in manuals. There’s no conceivable way that the head of the BLS could have manipulated this number,” Summers said…He added, “The numbers are in line with what we’re seeing from all kinds of private sector sources. This is the stuff of democracies giving way to authoritarianism. It — firing statisticians goes with threatening the heads of newspapers. It goes with launching assaults on universities. It goes with launching assaults on law firms that defend clients that the elected boss finds uncongenial. This is really scary stuff.” even a few Republicans balked at Trump’s BLS tantrum. As USA Today’s Francesca Chambers quotes former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: “”When he gets news he doesn’t like, he needs someone to blame because he won’t take the responsibility himself, and this is the action of a petulant child. Like, ‘You give me bad news, I fire the messenger,'” Christie told “This Week” host George Stephanopoulos.”

Meanwhile, Jason Ma reports in “Top economist warns the U.S. is ‘on the precipice of recession’ — and it will be hard for the Fed to come to the rescue” at msn.com: “Indicators from the past week paint an overall picture of an economy on the edge of a downturn, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. Not only is the labor market weakening, but consumer spending is flat while construction and manufacturing are shrinking, he warned, adding that the Federal Reserve will have a hard time reviving growth with inflation still above its target…The shocking jobs report on Friday wasn’t the only red flag. Indicators from the past week paint an overall picture of an economy that’s headed for a downturn, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi…After months of looking remarkably resilient in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the economic outlook has suddenly turned gloomier…“The economy is on the precipice of recession. That’s the clear takeaway from last week’s economic data dump,” Zandi wrote in a series of posts on X on Sunday. “Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue.” All of which helps explain why Trump’s has suddenly decided to  politicize the BLS.

Here is a map of the “2025/2026 Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings” according to Kyle Klondike and J.Miles Coleman at Sabato’s Crystal Ball:

Kondik and Coleman share their analysis of the North Carolina U.S. Senate race: “We suspect Cooper will lead Whatley in forthcoming polls, but that alone shouldn’t be taken as a sign that this is truly a Leans Democratic race. Cooper’s (hypothetical) polling so far has been decent but not incredibly strong in a state where it’s not uncommon to see Democrats lead in polls but fail to close the deal on Election Day. In a couple of polls from March and April matching him up with Tillis, Cooper led Tillis 47%-43% in a Public Policy Polling survey and 46%-44% in a Change Research poll (both are Democratic firms). More recently, the Republican firm co/efficient found Cooper leading Tillis 49%-31% (this was after Tillis decided to retire) while Cooper was tied with a generic Republican 48%-48% (and, if you look at the poll, you’ll see that the wording used was more than just “generic Republican”—it was “A Republican supporter of the Trump agenda to cut taxes, secure our border, and eliminate government waste,” phrasing that could nudge a respondent in the Republican direction). More broadly, a “generic,” nameless candidate can often poll better than an actual person would, but it’s also notable that Cooper doesn’t quite hit 50% in any of these polls. The 50% mark is not a necessity for a candidate winning—many winning candidates, including incumbents, don’t consistently hit it—but if Cooper polls around 50% on a somewhat regular basis, the case for looking at him as a true favorite in the race would be stronger…The political environment will likely be Democratic-leaning to some extent next year, although it’s an open question as to whether it will be a re-run of 2018. Democrats do lead in scattered generic ballot polling so far, although their leads are not as robust as they were at this time in 2017. Likewise, Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater but is also not as bad as it was in 2017. North Carolina is a state where both sides seem to have a high floor but where Republicans have the easier path to pluralities. Cooper’s strength as a candidate combined with the environment may eventually give the Democrats the easier path in this race—but, at this early juncture, we’re just not confident enough in that proposition materializing to designate Cooper as the favorite. One final thing to remember is that North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2006 or 2018, two Democratic midterm wave years. So Republicans in the state weren’t tested in those years the way they were in many other key states…Don’t get us wrong—Cooper’s run is a great development for Democrats. We just wanted to note why we nonetheless think this is still a Toss-up race as opposed to a Leans Democratic one.”