Nearly anything is possible in today’s chaotic political landscape. Now that the Musk-Trump meltdown seems to be on a more permanent footing, it is  reasonable to ask if Musk’s stated plans for a new “American Party” could end up helping – or hurting – Democrats.

At Newsweek, Martha McHardy reports that “A new survey conducted by Quantus Insights between June 30-July 2 among 1,000 registered voters found that 40 percent of voters—including many Republican voters—say they would consider backing the Tesla and SpaceX CEO’s party over traditional GOP or Democratic candidates. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.”

McHardy continues, “The poll suggests Musk’s new party could split conservative coalitions and draw in independents…According to the survey, 14 percent of voters said they would be “very likely” to support or vote for Musk’s proposed party if it were launched, while 26 percent said they would be “somewhat likely.” Another 38 percent said they were not likely to support it, while 22 percent remained unsure…

“The survey also revealed clear divides across party lines and demographics,” adds McHardy. “Among men who identify as Republicans, interest was especially strong: 23 percent said they are “very likely” and 34 percent say “somewhat likely” to back the America Party—a total of 57 percent expressing openness to Musk’s political brand. Male independents were also a promising base, with nearly half (47 percent) saying they’re likely to support it…In contrast, Democrats appeared far more skeptical. Just 7 percent of male Democrats said they would be “very likely” to support Musk’s party, while 36 percent said they would not likely back it at all. Among female Democrats, only 5 percent are “very likely” supporters.”

It’s possible that Musk’s American Party, Like Howard Hughes’ ‘Spruce Goose,’ won’t get too far off the ground, at least not before the midterm elections, which, ahem, are next year. Musk has all the money he needs to launch a serious third party. But there may not be enough skilled and available personnel available to staff it yet. Experienced and committed political operatives working in both parties have already been reduced to the hard core believers. Musk needs experienced campaign workers more than armchair advisors, and the former are in limited supply.

Year One of  Musk’s American Party could look like a Keystone Kops routine – lots of players running around, yammering like Munchkins in the Wizard of Oz, cluttering up the media and trailing money wherever they go. It’s not a good look. But it might squeeze just enough votes from the small universe of genuine swing voters, grumbling Independents, plus stay-at-homers who can be nagged to the polls, to make a difference in a few major elections.

As Musk recently put it, “Extremely concentrated force at a precise location on the battlefield,” can make the difference in any number of midterm elections. Put another way, “Can money buy turnout of specific demographic groups in narrowly defined locations? I think we may find out conclusively next year. Musk undoubtedly believes so, and he could cite the 2024 presidential election as ‘exhibit A’ in his argument.

On top of that, the study noted above and others indicate that a lot of people are disgusted with both political parties.  True conservatives have a lot of doubts about the debt-loving GOP right now, Musk’s broadside attacks againstTrump’s BBB have been compelling from a conservative standpoint.  It appears that a smaller number of  liberals differ enough with the Democratic Party to go Third Party….so far.

If Musk is smart, and refuses to disparage Black and Latino voters, he will win some support from those groups. A percent here, a percent there, and pretty soon it can add up to a pivotal electoral coalition. Or he may go the cynical way and try to build his base by bashing D.E. I. and immigrants.

That Cheshire cat you see grinning in the background is J. D. Vance, who is well-positioned to become the GOP’s front man, should Trump suddenly crash. He already has the VP slot and the big Silicone Valley dough lined up. It’s not hard to imagine sugar daddies Thiel and others funding him. My hunch is that Democrats need a fresh face in ’28 to beat him and whoever the American party runs.