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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

In his opinion essay, “Democrats Are Getting Richer, and It’s Not Helping” at The New York Times, Thomas B. Edsall writes, “I asked Mike Lux, one of the founders of Democracy Partners, a consulting firm serving progressive clients, if the rising affluence and education levels of white Democrats weaken the party’s claim to be the representative of the working class….Lux replied by email: “Of course it does. The foundational idea that Democrats are the party of working people (and its corollary that Republicans are the party of business and the wealthy) has grown much more tenuous than it once was. Democrats are lost without that core idea.” …Lux argued that conversations with working-class voters show they “want a candidate and a political party that will fight hard for you. Right now, they don’t think that is the Democrats.”…Both parties have some elements of elitism. The Republicans have a hard case to make when Trump’s cabinet is full of billionaires and they let big business write their own rules, and when they are cutting taxes for billionaires and paying for it by cutting Medicaid and V.A. benefits and food for hungry children…But, yes, the Democratic Party has some elements of elitism. To survive, we need to re-emphasize our working-class identity and that we are fighting for regular folks. We need to not talk down to folks and not spend so much time hanging out with celebrities.”

“Although this is the second mayoral cycle where the city has used a ranked-choice format—final tabulations are set to be run next week—Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist who has vowed to lower the cost of living in the city, will be the Democratic nominee,” J. Miles Coleman writes at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “As of this writing, Mamdani leads the field with 43.5% of the vote, while Cuomo is at just over 36%. The third-place finisher, City Comptroller Brad Lander, took about 11% of the vote. During the closing weeks of the race, Lander and Mamdani ran as, essentially, a ticket: Lander told his supporters to rank Mamdani as their second choice, and vice-versa. So we can reasonably expect Mamdani to receive much of Lander’s voters once ranked-choice tabulations kick in. Cuomo has already conceded the primary…While Mamdani was clearly gaining steam throughout the primary campaign, the outcome is still a surprise. Though Cuomo, to say the least, did not leave office in 2021 under ideal circumstances, his name recognition, track record in Democratic politics, and financial advantage gave his candidacy something of an “inevitability” factor. In some years, that may have played to his advantage. But the Democratic electorate, which seems frustrated with national leadership that it perceives as too risk-averse, did not seem willing to simply stick with the devil they knew…But Mamdani didn’t only win with college educated progressives. In Lower Manhattan, Mamdani took most precincts that cover Chinatown. Going back near the “Commie Corridor,” Mamdani got some of his largest margins in the city in the Latino-majority precincts of Bushwick, an area that makes up the heart of New York’s 7th District. During the campaign, one of his visible supporters was Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D, NY-7)—according to calculations by Split Ticket’s Armin Thomas, NY-7 was Mamdani’s best congressional district in the city, giving him 65% yesterday…”

“On a bigger picture note,” Coleman adds, “though Mamdani was behind in several polls heading into Election Day, there were signs he was closing in on Cuomo. The difference—or, lack thereof—between voting methods also offers some support for the idea that late deciders broke to Mamdani. During the early voting period, which took place last week, it was clear that many of the aforementioned pro-Mamdani areas were punching above their weight. So, if Mamdani was racking up a lead with early voters, surely Cuomo would do better with voters who waited until Election Day, or so the conventional wisdom went…So, what’s next in the race? As many of our readers probably know, under New York’s fusion voting system, non-major parties have their own “lines” in the general election, although they can also endorse major-party nominees. In the case of this race, the Working Families Party (WFP), which typically aligns itself with Democratic nominees, endorsed Mamdani last month. Had Mamdani lost the Democratic primary, he could have still appeared in the general election as the WFP candidate…As a bit of a historical aside, Mario Cuomo was similarly denied the Democratic nomination for mayor in 1977 and ran in the general election as the Liberal Party’s candidate, although he still lost to then-Rep. Ed Koch (D). While the younger Cuomo could theoretically continue to campaign under the Fight and Deliver banner, the apparently decisive margin that he lost the Democratic primary by may give him some pause (while Cuomo conceded the Democratic nomination last night, he did not rule out staying in the race)…Aside from Mamdani, and possibly Cuomo, the general election will, to a degree, be a rematch of 2021. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who was elected four years ago, exited the Democratic primary to run as an independent—although, in part because of a litany of scandals, his approval ratings are generally low. Curtis Sliwa, founder of the anti-crime Guardian Angels group, was the GOP’s 2021 nominee and was unopposed for the nomination this year. There may still be some twists and turns in the general election if the anti-Mamdani forces are able to coalesce, although their options for doing so are not great right now…For now, Mamdani’s apparent victory could represent a watershed election in New York’s political history. At a national level, while Democrats nominated center-left candidates earlier this month for the key gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, Mamdani’s win this week gives Democrats a much different and much more left-wing candidate than they are fielding in those other significant 2025 races.”

At Daily Kos, slipperyone writes: “Last weekend, the Atlanta Journal ran a report on the possible effects of Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” on rural healthcare in Georgia, and the results weren’t pretty. According to a study by the American Hospital Association, Medicaid cuts in the bill could result in a reduction in funding of $50.4 billion nationally and $540 million in Georgia over the next 10 years. Another study from the University of North Carolina listed hundreds of hospitals nationwide, including four in Georgia, at risk of closing down services or shutting down completely. One of the Georgia hospitals mentioned in the report was in Fannin County, which voted 83% for Trump last year. Another was in Irwin County, which voted 77% for Trump in 2024. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 310,000 Georgians would lose all insurance if the bill passes…The bulk of those losing insurance are lower-income individuals, who are disproportionately located in rural counties with small total populations. Georgia has 159 counties, many with total populations under 20,000. Without paying patients, the hospitals in these counties can easily become distressed. Further, doctors won’t practice in areas where they can’t make a living, leading to severe physician shortages as well.”

2 comments on “Political Strategy Notes

  1. Victor on

    Leftist Democrats have had a string of victories in deep blue cities.

    Woke politics is alive and well.

    This is not good for national politics and probably bad for local and state politics as well.

    At the national level we have yet another Democrat who can be easily caricatured.

    At the state level we have yet another elected official with virtually no track record being elected to an incredibly powerful office.

    At the local level we may have yet another big city Mayor who turns out not to know how to govern.

    Mamdani could join the list of Brandon Johnson of Chicago, Karen Bass of Los Angeles and London Breed of San Francisco, specially if he follows on Bill de Blasio’s footsteps and focuses less on local governance and more on personal ambition (a problem also for centrists like Rahm Emanuel).

    “Centrists” have a lot to be blamed for when it comes to New York City specifically.

    Centrists failed to field a competitive and untainted candidate and also failed to coalesce around one of the other liberal candidates to block the far left one.

    Cuomo’s candicacy was disgraceful. His endorsement by the establishment even more so (the Clintons’ endorsement specially so).

    The whole reason for Cuomo’s candidacy was reduced to “confronting Trump”.

    But Cuomo’s personal history discredited him. The center brought little to the table other than indirectly doubling down on Cuomo’s own triangulation as Governor with Republicans in the state legislature far after this was necessary.

    The center also never accepted accountability for the disaster of current Mayor Adam’s administration.

    By centralizing Trump’s figure in local politics, what the center achieved was creating an opening for the far left.

    The far left could push pro-immigrant and anti-war messaging to the point that (de facto) abolition of ICE and (an anti-West) “global intifada” could become acceptable discourse for Democratic primary voters.

    While New York City left of center Democratic primary voters may feel self-satisfied with their choices, uncommitted voters will be left wondering what is still going on in deep blue cities.

    AOC’s decision to again call for Trump’s impeachment is the kind of empty rhetoric that lead to Trump being not only reelected but capturing the majority of the popular vote.

    While Mamdani’ supporters may say he centered affordability as his main campaign message, everything else about the race and the state of New York politics points to an overall broken political system and toxic political culture for which Democrats, only Democrats and all types of Democrats are to blame.

    The facts that Cuomo’s succesor Governor Hochul has such low approval ratings and that US House and US Senate Democratic Minority Leaders Schumer and Jeffries are seen as such ineffective strategists and uncharismatic spokespersons all point to the damage that a New York controlled Democratic establishment does to the national brand.

    Reply
  2. Victor on

    Democrats oppose attacks on Iran while saying the last ones failed, thereby making additional attacks necessary. Otherwise they expect unilateral disarmament from Iran?

    Russia has said that Iran’s weapons program is military in nature. Iran’s Parliament has voted to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran is killing or jailing further political opponents. Does it look like Iran is willing to unilaterally disarm?

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