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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Political Strategy Notes

“The results of an initial round of research shared exclusively with POLITICO — including 30 focus groups and a national media consumption survey — found many young men believe that “neither party has our back,” as one Black man from Georgia said in a focus group,” Politico’s Elena Schneider writes in “Democrats set out to study young men. Here are their findings. A widely mocked project to get under the hood about why Democrats are losing young men has sobering results.”  Schneider adds, “Participants described the Democratic Party as overly-scripted and cautious, while Republicans are seen as confident and unafraid to offend…They also said they now feel overwhelmed by economic anxiety, making “traditional milestones,” like buying a home or saving for kids’ college, “feel impossible,” an analysis of the research said…“The degree to which those economic concerns are also impacting how they think about themselves and quote-unquote success of being a man, and living up to their own expectations or the expectations of their family or society,” [pollster John] Della Volpe said. “There’s another layer of economic anxiety that I don’t think I fully saw until now.”…Young men’s feelings of crisis are connected to their exodus from the party, SAM’s research suggests. SAM’s national survey found that just 27 percent of young men viewed the Democratic Party positively, while 43 percent of them viewed the Republican Party favorably. The polling sample included 23 percent self-described Democrats, 28 percent Republicans and 36 percent independents…In last year’s presidential election, the gender gap leapt to 13 percentage points nationally, up from 9 percentage points in 2020, the Democratic firm Catalist found in its final 2024 analysis that men’s support for Kamala Harris dropped by 6 points, winning just 42 percent of men — the lowest on record in recent elections.”

Alex Gangitano reports on the GOP split in “Musk calls for killing House’s ‘big, beautiful bill’” at The Hill: “Elon Musk on Wednesday called for killing the House’s “big, beautiful bill” and for a new spending bill to be drafted after he threw a wrench into GOP leadership’s plans to pass President Trump’s bill of legislative priorities by July 4…“A new spending bill should be drafted that doesn’t massively grow the deficit and increase the debt ceiling by 5 TRILLION DOLLARS,” Musk said on his social platform X…He later added on X, “Call your Senator, Call your Congressman, Bankrupting America is NOT ok! KILL the BILL.”…Musk, who was at the helm of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), called the legislation passed by the House “pork-filled” and a “disgusting abomination” on Tuesday. His stinging criticism doubled down on his previous comments that the bill undermines the cost-cutting efforts of DOGE…Musk’s criticism gave political cover to the fiscal hawks in the Senate who were already critical of the legislation, including GOP Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.), Mike Lee (Utah) and Rand Paul (Ky.)…Paul said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that if four conservatives band together, they could force Senate GOP leaders to agree to bigger spending cuts and possibly “separate out” language to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion…Similarly, Lee called for the Senate to “make this bill better.”…The group wants to see deeper spending cuts while other Republicans, like Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Josh Hawley (Mo.) and Jerry Moran (Kan.), are worried that House language to cut Medicaid spending will hurt their constituents.”

“Most companies are already raising prices or plan to because of tariffs, data shows,” Alex Harring reports at CNBC.com: “Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows a majority of companies have passed along at least some of President Donald Trump’s tariffs onto customers, the latest in a growing body of evidence indicating the policy change is likely to stretch consumers’ wallets…In May, about 77% of service firms that saw increased costs due to higher U.S. tariffs tariffs passed through at least at least some of the rise to clients, according to a survey conducted by the New York Fed that was released Wednesday. Around 75% of manufacturers surveyed said the same…In fact, more than 30% of manufacturers and roughly 45% of service firms passed through all of the higher cost to their customers, according to the New York Fed’s statics…Price hikes happened quickly after Trump slapped steep levies on trading partners, whether large or small. More than 35% of manufacturers and nearly 40% of service firms raised prices within a week of seeing tariff-related cost increases, according to the survey…The New York Fed’s survey is the latest in a salvo of data releases and anecdotal reports that have shown companies’ willingness to pass down cost increases despite pressure from Trump not to do so…Nearly nine out of 10 of the 300 CEOs surveyed in May said they have raised prices or planned to soon, according to data released last week by Chief Executive Group and AlixPartners. About seven out of 10 chief executives surveyed in May said they plan to hike prices by at least 2.5%…“The administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of Covid-19,” one respondent said in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey published Monday.”

Some observations from “Resurrecting the Rebel Alliance: To end the age of Trump, Democrats must relearn the language and levers of power” by Barry C. Lynn at Washington Monthly. “The task ahead for Democrats is not merely to resist and slow the predations and destructions of President Trump. It is not merely to knock the Republicans out of power in 2026 and 2028. It is to establish a new political economic regime which ensures that our liberty and prosperity are never again threatened by any homegrown oligarch or autocrat. And Democrats must do so in a world filled with great enemies, eager to exploit the chaos sown here in America by Trump and the oligarchs, to topple us…None of this will be possible until Democrats first fully recover America’s original language of liberty. Doing so is the only way to relearn the wisdom about power and political economic structure baked into this language. It’s the only way for Democrats to convince the American people they actually understand how to make their lives better, and have the courage to act. And the only way Democratic elites can prove they understand their own responsibility for today’s crisis, and fully grasp the threats to their own lives and the lives of their own children…Reformers tend to blame political cowardice on cupidity and corruption. What I’ve learned over the past 25 years is that fatuousness, especially when combined with lack of imagination, often plays a much bigger role…Yes, Democratic Party elites’ failure to recognize the continuing bite of inflation played a big role in Harris’s loss. But the Democrats’ inability to speak honestly about the threats posed by concentrated power left much more than prices unaddressed…When voters turned to the Democratic Party, by contrast, they heard the treacly language of charity—of condescension—delivered in the tones of a courtier class that itself stands on unfirm ground…Since the election, Democrats have been presented with three options for retaking power. The first, courtesy of James Carville, is to play possum till the hillbillies miss us. Second, championed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is to oppose everything Trump does, everywhere, all at once. Third is to cozy up to good oligarchs, so they can shelter us until the MAGA storm blows over. This thanks to Ezra Klein and the “abundance movement.” …The better path is to honestly admit the radical nature and full immensity of the political threat we face, which is the direct merger of the power of the private monopoly and the state. And our own complicity in creating this crisis. And all the ways the old libertarian thinking continues to lead us back into darkness, superstition, and savagery.”

2 comments on “Political Strategy Notes

  1. Victor on

    We need more coverage of state and local developments in the deep blue states that drive/control the Democratic party.

    New York has an important Mayoral primary upcoming and possibly/probably also a gubernatorial one.

    The donors and activists influencing those campaigns also end up dictating the terms of intra-party debate.

    By the time they become national names, like AOC, it is too late.

    Reply
  2. Victor on

    The Washington Monthly article is a must read for all the historic myth busting it accomplishes.

    The crisis of masculinity is directly tied to the fall of confidence in a college education among men and their underperformance in school compared to women, specially among the working class.

    Reply

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