The tariff hit won’t fall evenly across American households: The Budget Lab’s analysis shows the new policy is a textbook example of what’s known as a regressive tax. That is, the tariffs will eat up a larger share of the earnings of lower- and middle-income families than they will for wealthy households.

In the short run, households in the second-lowest income decile — families earning roughly between $30,000 and $60,000, according to the Census Bureau — will lose about 4% of their disposable income due to Trump’s 2025 tariffs. Meanwhile, the richest households in the top quintile — those earing $175,000 and above — will only lose 1.6% of their income, according to the Budget Lab’s analysis.

Matthews adds that “Consumers should expect to see apparel prices to rise by 17% due to Trump’s 2025 tariffs, while the prices of fresh produce will rise 4% and motor-vehicle prices will go up by 8.4%, the equivalent of an additional $4,000 for a new car.”

For Democrats, Eric Levitz writes at Vox, “The party would probably be better off with a more focused message. This doesn’t mean defending the ideological abstraction of “free trade,” but rather, emphasizing that a Republican president has just enacted a historically large middle-class tax hike, which is increasing prices and risking recession…Ultimately though, I’m not sure that Democrats need to sweat the details here. Swing voters tend to be more politically disengaged than partisans, and are not hanging on every word posted from the House Democrats’ X account. For them, rising prices and falling 401(k) values are likely to make the case against Trump’s trade policies more eloquently than any Democrat ever could.”