It’s traditional in American politics to fret about “October surprises,” the unanticipated events that throw off years of plans and calculations. October has barely begun, but Hurricane Helene with its terrible destruction already has people wondering, so I wrote some preliminary thoughts about how to assess it at New York:
The upcoming presidential election is so close that it could easily be swayed by external developments. Perhaps a widening war in the Middle East will turn heads in one direction or the other, or possibly a dockworkers strike will shake the steadily improving economy and help Republicans. But the major event we already know about is Hurricane Helene, which took a horrific toll on a swath of coastal and inland communities stretching from Florida to Virginia. Confirmed deaths from the storm have already reached 175, with more likely as rescue crews sift through the wreckage and reach remote areas. Damage is expected to reach as much as $160 billion, making the storm one of the deadliest and costliest in U.S. history.
While the human tragedy of Helene remains front and center, it’s impossible to forget entirely that the nightmare storm hit late in a very close and highly consequential presidential election, and two battleground states (Georgia and North Carolina) were very much affected. Here’s what we know about the possible political fallout.
A lot of what we know about the impact of a major destructive storm on the willingness and ability of citizens to vote comes from Hurricane Sandy, which hammered parts of Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York in October 2012 during the run-up to a reasonably competitive presidential election. Sandy, to be clear, was much more proximate to Election Day (hitting the United States on October 29, eight days before the election) than Helene. On the other hand, early voting has become more significant since 2012, and mail ballots were going out in North Carolina when Helene roared across the area. The major study on the electoral impact of Sandy concluded that the famous “superstorm” did not have a significant impact on voter turnout in 2012.
There’s some talk in North Carolina of flooded polling places that may not be usable any time soon and fears of extended disruption of mail service. However, in all but a few isolated places, there should be plenty of time for recovery in the month before Election Day. Individuals, of course, may experience dislocations and psychological effects that might interfere with all kinds of civic participation, but it will be hard to anticipate the magnitude of such collateral damage.
The Washington Post took a look at the communities experiencing the most death and destruction from Helene and quickly concluded Trump country was most affected:
“As of writing, the federal government has issued disaster declarations in 66 mostly rural counties across four states: 17 in Florida, 11 in Georgia, 25 in North Carolina, and 13 in South Carolina. The declarations follow Helene’s path, from the section of Florida where the state bends along the Gulf of Mexico, through eastern Georgia and into the western Carolinas …
“Overall, counties in those four states that weren’t declared disaster areas voted for Joe Biden by a slight margin. Counties that were declared disaster areas backed Trump by a nearly 16-point margin. In all four states, counties that were included in the federal government’s disaster declarations were more supportive of Trump than were counties that didn’t receive that designation. In Georgia and North Carolina, non-disaster counties gave more votes to Biden.”
The disparate impact is most notable in North Carolina, a red-hot battleground state and the one where Helene’s impact was most heavily concentrated:
“Trump won North Carolina by a bit over one percentage point in 2020. If no one in the counties currently undergoing a Helene-related disaster had voted, Biden would have won by more than three points. If those counties are unable to vote at the same level as they did four years ago by the time Election Day arrives, that could spell trouble for the former president.”
But again, it’s a long time until Election Day.
People who have lost homes or other possessions to high winds and (especially) flooding and/or who lack power or other essentials for an extended period of time are especially dependent on emergency assistance and may be grateful if it arrives expeditiously. Beyond for those immediately affected, the perceived competence and compassion of government entities dealing with disaster relief and recovery efforts can affect how voters assess those in office, particularly in a high-profile situation like that created by Helene.
An American Enterprise Institute study of Sandy suggested that the Obama administration’s response to the storm was a major factor in the incumbent’s ability to win late deciders in 2012, topped by this finding: “Fully 15 percent of the electorate rated Obama’s hurricane response as the most important factor in their vote.”
At the other end of the spectrum, the George W. Bush administration’s tardy, confused, and seemingly indifferent response to the calamity of Hurricane Katrina in August and September of 2005 had an enduringly negative effect on perceptions of his presidency, even though it occurred nowhere close to a national election, as Reid Wilson explained:
“Voters, already turning skeptical over the mismanaged war in Iraq, blamed Bush for the unfolding disaster in New Orleans. Bush’s approval rating hit 45 percent in Gallup surveys the month after Katrina; they never again reached that high. The number of Americans who said the country was headed off on the wrong track rose north of 60 percent and stayed even higher for the rest of Bush’s presidency.”
While FEMA and HUD are typically the federal agencies most involved in disaster response and recovery, presidential leadership in a disaster always gets attention, too, and the risk of negative publicity or graphic displays of unmet needs won’t go away immediately. Bureaucratic backlogs in distributing funds and approving applications for assistance could cause voter unhappiness long after the initial damage is addressed.
Barring unexpected developments or a major series of screwups in the federal response, Hurricane Helene is likely to mark a big moment in the lives of people in and near the areas of devastation but probably won’t much affect their voting behavior. Obviously the campaigns and their allies will need to adjust their get-out-the-vote operations and show some sensitivity to the suffering of people whose lives were turned upside down. We can only hope the election itself and its aftermath don’t add violence and trauma to the damage done.
Kamala’s team has apparently chosen a “don’t rock the boat” strategy overall. So it is betting it is already going to win.
Walz’ performance was mostly about not alienating voters who may switch back to Trump.
The only red line at the debate was therefore the peaceful transfer of power.
Walz performed moderately on most other issues.
The problem is this strategy relies on voters caring enough about a lot of less salient issues and be willing to give Kamala a chance regarding the two highest salience issues.
Democrats are playing a weak hand on the economy and immigration. They have a contradictory record on tariffs, borders and energy.
Trump and Vance have been able to tie Kamala to Biden’s record without being able to argue that Trump was also in office in an aggressive way).
Vance was better able than Trump to exploit Democrats’ weaknesses. He clearly did a better SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats). Democrats are extremely vulnerable going into the future against non-Trump candidates given their past records.
Democrats are unable to articulate narratives about the Republican party as a whole. This is how Democrats end up paying the price for neoliberal globalization even though they are a left wing party.
Democrats are fearful of claiming their actual legacy as their (exclusive) own. Even on healthcare, they insist on calling it the Affordable Care Act even after Obamacare became popular.
Attacks against Republicans would have to target the party as an ideology, be thorough, aggressive and repetitive. They could target infrastructure spending, fiscal deficits, trade deficits and the legislative and judicial record on healthcare, childrearing, abortion and immigration.
Democrats could hang the “do nothing” sign around the Republican Congress (if it wasn’t for people like Manchin/Sinema).
Vance exemplifies even better than Trump the Republican strategy of trying to appear like a party that cares about the economic wellbeing of people, even while blocking almost all actual legislation (either in Congress or thru the courts). Democrats’ strategy in Congress lets the GOP get away with this too.
The debate format clearly favours the lying side.
On this occasion the absence of introductory statements hurt Walz. He was caught off guard by the Iran question, was hurt by having to answer first right off the bat and failed to bring up Republican’s isolationist strategy (exemplified by Vance even more than Trump).
The 2 minute format lets Republican candidates get away with a litany of lies. The format should be reduced to 1 minute or preferably 30 seconds, with multiple follow up questions from moderators and rivals.
The question choices by moderators were very often disgraceful. From the choice of beginning with a foreign affairs question to the framing of questions with very negative leads (specially those regarding Kamala’s plans), the moderators’ interventions actually subtracted at almost every turn.
Trying to appear impartial is a tough job when you have an insurrectionist party. So it was disappointing to see Walz’ not better prepared or able to pivot foreseeable questions towards Democrats’ strengths and Republicans’ weakness.