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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: How Doug Jones Can Beat Roy Moore

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his blog:

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It won’t be easy. But the Washington Post/Schar School poll, a poll that gives Jones a 3 point lead among likely voters, shows how it will happen, if it does happen. First, overwhelming support from blacks, combined with solid turnout (this poll has blacks at about a quarter of likely voters, which is good but not unreasonably high). Then mega-swings in the white vote relative to 2016. Trump carried the white vote by 70 points in Alabama in 2016. In this poll, Moore carries the white vote by a mere 30 points (63-33).

The Post poll allows one to break down the white vote by college and noncollege. The poll has white noncollege voters supporting Moore by “only” 42 points. That sounds like a lot but compared to Trump’s 77 point margin among this group in 2016, it’s not bad. And there are twice as many white noncollege voters as white college voters so that swing, if it happens, will loom pretty large in determining the outcome. We can’t break white noncollege down between men and women but judging from other data in the poll, it seems plausible that white noncollege women will drive the swing. How much they move could determine Alabama’s next Senator.

One comment on “Teixeira: How Doug Jones Can Beat Roy Moore

  1. Candace on

    Someone should remind voters in Alabama that Deconstruction Bannon will only endorse people he believes will be the worst person for the job.
    What is it about Moore that says explosive fail to Bannon?

    Also I thought conservatives were upset about all of the negative dumb guy stereotypes about white men, particularly fathers in media. That concern doesn’t transfer over to politicians?
    If Homer Simpson was mean enough, Steve Bannon would endorse him.

    Reply

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