As it happens, I was in the eastern time zone yesterday, and thus following the primary returns from Wyoming and Washington involved some serious sleep deprivation. Newcomers to the West Coast like me complain a lot about having to get up early in the morning to deal with East Coast people and news, but it sure is nice to have those three extra hours when sluggish machines and poll workers are slowly churning out election returns.
The Wyoming GOP gubernatorial primary created the only cliffhanger of the night, with former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead leading State Auditor Rita by just over 700 votes. Right-wing crusader Ron Micheli finished a strong third, and political scion Colin Simpson a relatively poor fourth. Mead self-funded to the tune of $900,000, and had to overcome RINO accusations, particularly from Micheli. Myer’s loss denies Wyoming the certainty of a female governor, since state party chair Leslie Peterson won the Democratic nomination by a 48-39 margin over Pete Gosar.
In Washington, which uses the “Top 2 Blanket Primary” system that voters in California are soon to encounter, the primary was mostly a positioning test for the general election. The one outcome thought to be in doubt going into yesterday was in the 3d congressional district, where national Republican party favorite Jaime Herrera burnished the GOP’s diversity image by winning a general election spot alongside Democrat Denny Heck for the seat held by retiring Democrat Brian Baird. Would-be conservative spoiler David Castillo finished far back.
In the U.S. Senate race, two-time gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi did himself some good by winning 34%, while Tea Partyish former NFL player Clint Didier came in at a disappointing 12%. Incumbent Patty Murry has 46%, though that percentage is likely to rise a bit when late mail ballots from the Democratic bastion of King County trickle in.
Over at RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende has collected data from previous “blanket primary” results in Washington that show a very close relationship between primary and general election performance for major-party candidates. He suggests yesterday’s results show Murray to be very vulnerable; Herrera a virtual lead-pipe cinch to win; and a couple of Democratic incumbent congressman in some peril. I do wonder if Sean is paying attention to when Washington primaries have been held in the past; some were in September, when you’d guess turnout would be higher than in August, and public opinion a bit closer to where it would wind up in November. But he’s got the datasets, so his conclusions are worth considering.
Finally, there was one other notable contest out west last night: a special “general election” in California to choose a successor in the state senate to Abel Maldonado, who was appointed Lt. Gov. earlier this year. Republican Sam Blakeslee defeated Democrat John Laird (confirming the order of finish in the special primary held in June), mainly based on strong performance by Blakeslee in his House district. But what’s interesting about this result is that about 158,000 votes were cast in this obscure state legislative election. The total two-party vote in Wyoming’s primary was just over 127,000. Wyoming has two seats in the United States Senate. Think about that next time you wonder if the ability of 41 Senators to control the national agenda via the filibuster might be a tad undemocratic.
Month: August 2010
Democracy Corps has an important report on voter attitudes, “The Big Decisions Ahead on Economic Renewal and Reduced Debt,” which should be of considerable interest Democratic candidates and their campaigns.
The DCORPS analysis is based in part on a new poll, co-sponsored by Democracy Corps and Campaign for America’s Future, with support from MoveOn.org, AFSCME and SEIU. The analysis provides compelling data indicating that candidates who advocate cuts in Social Security benefits and show little interest in creating jobs “face major voter backlash.”
The poll, which was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from 7/26-29, provides revealing opinion data and analysis on social security, job-creation and deficit-reduction. From the Democracy Corps analysis of the data:
Voters are united on this key point: Social Security and Medicare are off-limits as a way to reduce the deficit…As Social Security celebrates its 75th anniversary this week in the midst of this troubled economy, voters across the political divide want these programs defended….Voters say spending cuts for Social Security and Medicare should not be part of any deficit reduction plan by a wide 68 to 28 percent margin.
DCORPS founder Stan Greenberg and Campaign for America’s Future (CAF) co-director Robert Borosage held a ‘press call’ on August 12th discussing the implications of the poll for the debate over jobs and deficits. On the same call, progressive leaders from MoveOn.org Political Action and CAF announced major campaign to get candidates on record opposing any cuts in benefits, including raising the retirement age.
In his recent HuffPo article, on the tea party and Republicans Democratic strategist Robert Creamer, who lead the effort to stop Bush’s privatization schemes, explains:
Major Progressive organizations have launched a new coalition to press Members of Congress to defend Social Security and Medicare, and the issue has vaulted to the top of the issue agenda for Democratic candidates across the country. Democratic House Members conducted more than 100 events to commemorate the 75th Anniversary of Social Security over the last weekend — and to pledge their opposition to privatizing Social Security or cutting its benefits. That includes commitments not to raise the retirement age — an idea that is just terrific for guys who fly around in corporate jets, but doesn’t go over so well if you happen to haul bricks on construction sites or flip mattresses in hotel rooms for a living……Americans United for Change — which was first organized to run the successful campaign to defeat Bush’s 2005 attempt to privatize Social Security — has launched a major new initiative to stop the “Republican sneak attack on Social Security and Medicare.”
…The public soundly rejected President Bush’s attempt to privatize Social Security in 2005. You’d think that the experience of the stock market meltdown where millions of people saw their life’s savings go up in smoke would be enough to convince even the most orthodox right-winger that it’s a terrible idea to tie Social Security to the ups and downs of the stock market. But economic reality doesn’t seem to break through the Republican’s ideological and self-interest blinders.
The polling data suggests that House GOP leader John Boehner’s call for Social Security benefit reductions to pay for tax cuts for rich could sink Republican candidates. Adds Creamer:
Congressman Paul Ryan, who would be Chairman of the House Budget Committee if the Republicans were to take back control of the House, has published a detailed “Roadmap” on how he would privatize Social Security and abolish Medicare and replace it with vouchers for private insurance. Much of that “roadmap” was actually included in the Republican budget alternative that Ryan convinced the Republicans to support last year. Now that vote has begun to come back to haunt some of the members who would just as soon keep their economic views safely in the closet before the voters cast their ballots.
It appears Democrats have much to gain by focusing media attention on GOP “reforms” that weaken Social Security, whether reduction in benefits or raising the retirement age. Seniors over age 60, who comprised 29 percent of the electorate in the 2006 midterms, will likely be a pivotal force on November 2nd. As Creamer notes of Republicans,
…Many of those swing districts that they would so dearly like to win this fall have lots of senior voters. They had been counting on scaring those voters into supporting Republican candidates with visions of “death panels” and lies about health reform-induced cuts in Medicare.
But it looks like Republicans made a serious mistake, says Creamer:
Many of those seniors don’t like “government spending” — but by that they are definitely not referring to their Social Security or Medicare. They view both as social insurance — as programs they have paid into throughout their working lives in expectation that they would be entitled to the advertised benefits — the same way they would under any insurance plan. In focus groups the moment you tell these voters that Republicans support privatizing Social Security or replacing Medicare with vouchers for private insurance, Republican support plummets.
…The Republicans have a lot to worry about when it comes to these issues. Polls show that if the voters are talking about Social Security and Medicare on Nov. 2, Republican fortunes will drop like a rock. In fact, these two issues are like kryptonite to Republican chances. That’s why you’ll see mainstream Republicans scramble like mad to downplay their true intentions — and change the subject over the weeks ahead. Republican Leader John Boehner — who completely supports Ryan’s “Road Map” — made the mistake several weeks ago of blurting out that he supported raising the Social Security retirement age to 70. Since then he has ducked and weaved when it comes to Social Security.
Despite the gloomy projections of Democratic defeat in the upcoming midterms, the DCORPS analysis indicates that Dems have a formidable card to play regarding the Republicans’ unpopular positions on Medicare and Social Security. And if Dems can find a way to show that GOP candidates are equally-clueless about the public’s desire for a stronger federal investment in creating jobs, predictions of a Republican takeover of congress may prove to be a misguided fantasy.
This item by J.P. Green was first published on August 15, 2010.
Politico‘s Ben Smith presents a memo by Administration poll analyst Joel Benenson arguing that “Republican unpopularity could be the Democratic Party’s best defense against its own unpopularity.” According to Benenson’s bullet points:
• Today’s NBC/Wall St. Journal poll underscores the fact that with fewer than 90 days until the mid-term elections, the Republican Party’s standing is at one of its lowest points ever and its competitive position vs. the Democrats looks much as it did in the summers of 1998 and 2002, neither of which were “wave” elections.
• The NBC/WSJ poll shows that not only is the Republican Party’s image at its lowest point ever in their polling, their ratings are still lower than Democrats’ and their party image has worsened much more than the Democrats when compared with the last midterm elections in 2006.
See also Ed Kilgore’s post on the survey here. Further, Benenson adds,
• Only 24 percent of Americans gave the Republicans a positive rating while 46 percent were negative for a net of -22 (28 percent were neutral). This positive rating is not only a historic low, it is down 9 points since May — just three months ago. In addition, in July of 2006, a year in which Republicans lost 30 seats, their rating stood at 32 percent positive, 39 percent negative for only a -7 net rating or a change in the net rating of -15. During the same period the Democratic rating slipped only slightly by a net of -4 points from 32/39 in July 2006 to 33/44 today.
• This overall outlook is also consistent with an ABC/Washington Post poll from a month ago (7/13/10) that showed Americans’ confidence in Republicans in Congress to make “the right decisions for the country’s future” lagging behind Democrats:
– 73 percent say they are not confident in Republicans in Congress while 26 percent say they are, for a net negative confidence rating of -47 points.
– Democrats in Congress are at 32 percent confident (6 points higher than the GOP) and 67 percent who say they are not confident (6 points lower than the GOP), for a net confidence rating of -35, which is 12 points better than the congressional Republicans.
• When asked in the NBC/WSJ poll whether they prefer Democratic or Republican control of Congress after the November elections, 43 percent said Democrats and 42 percent said Republicans. While Democrats had a 10-point margin in 2006 when they gained 31 seats, the previous two midterms also showed a deadlocked preference in the summers of 1998 and 2002 in the NBC/WSJ polls. In both of those elections, the gains were only in single digits: 5 seats for the Democrats in 1998 and 8 seats for the Republicans in 2002.
• In addition, a Pew poll from early July showed that Republicans have a significant image deficit among Americans on the question of which party is “more concerned about people like me.” In that survey of 1800 Americans, 50 percent said Democrats were more concerned about people like them while only 34 percent said Republicans were.
Cherry-picked as Benenson’s data may be, all three polls appear to be methodologically-solid. If Benenson is right, Dems are in a better position, image-wise than Republicans. There’s plenty of room for improvement for Dems, but the GOP is in a deeper mess in terms of the way they are viewed by the public.
This item by Ed Kilgore was first published on August 11, 2010.
Last night’s primary returns from four states were enough to keep me up past my bedtime. The biggest upset was probably Dan Malloy’s easy win over Ned Lamont in the CT Democratic gubernatorial primary, though the size of Michael Bennet’s eight-point win over Andrew Romanoff in the CO Dem Senate primary certainly surprised me. Three races expected to be very close–the Republican gubernatorial and Senate races in CO, and the GOP gubernatorial runoff–were in fact very close. Karen Handel’s concession to Nathan Deal in GA, with absentee ballots still to be counted and just over two thousand votes separating the candidates, was a bit of a surprise after a long and bitter campaign. Ken Buck’s 52-48 win over Jane Norton showed the value of political “home cooking;” virtually all of his margin can be attributed to a stellar performance in his home county (Weld) and the one next door to it (Larimer). You wish there could have been an exit poll for the CO GOP governor’s race to find out what voters thought they were doing when they cast ballots for Dan Maes. And you’d like to know if there was a point in the long evening when former Senator and now gubernatorial nominee Mark Dayton thought his long political career was finally over.
But here’s the really interesting thing: Democrats are at the moment front-runners in the gubernatorial contest in all four of these states, three of which currently have Republican governors. That’s a bit of good news for the Donkey Party during a tough year.
Sometimes media coverage of the midterm elections comes across as a sort of undifferentiated Visigothic raid on Democrats by Republicans everywhere. But it’s a little more subtle than that, as indicated by Politico‘s Alex Isenstadt in a survey of the two parties’ strategies for controlling the House in November.
Interestingly, the DCCC has a two-to-one financial advantage over the NRCC, at $34 million to $17 million. That’s reflected in the targeted TV ad time the two committees are reserving for the stretch run, with the DCCC planning $49 million in total ad expenditures, and the NRCC $22 million.
The DCCC’s money, unsurprisingly, will be overwhelmingly focused on defending vulnerable incumbents, with 54 of its 60 targeted races in seats held by Democrats. The NRCC is currently reserving ad time in a more limited 40 districts, all now held by Democrats, with a mix of targets:
The bulk of the Democrats in the crosshairs are vulnerable first-term legislators sitting in Republican-oriented seats. Many are clustered in the South, including Rep. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.), Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.), Rep. Travis Childers (D-Miss.), Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) and Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.).
Republicans are also looking toward a handful of Republican-leaning seats that have been left vacant by Democratic retirements. Among them: Arkansas’s 1st District, Indiana’s 8th District, Kansas’s 3rd District, and Tennessee’s 8th District.
A number of seasoned Capitol Hill veterans are being singled out for rough treatment. Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Ky.), Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas), Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.), Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Edwards, and Spratt – all of whom face their most difficult reelection campaigns in years – are on the GOP fall hit list.
In a nod to the perilous election environment, Republicans are also probing for fresh pickup opportunities in Republican-friendly districts that until recently looked to be locked down by savvy Democrats. Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.), Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.), and Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.)- all of whom hold wide cash on hand advantages over their opponents and won by comfortable margins in 2008-will have ads run against them.
At present Republicans aren’t planning to spend anything defending their own vulnerable incumbents in Hawaii and Louisiana.
But in general, their strategy indicates that some of the wilder estimates of Republican House gains this year really do depend on a “wave” that operates independently of individual campaigs in individual districts. Republican money is focused on a much narrower range of possibilities. In all the discussions about high GOP expectations this year, we should take a moment to hear money talk.
The most buzzworthy progressive commentary out there right now is without a doubt John Judis’ New Republic piece on the “Unnecessary Fall” of Barack Obama.
It’s essentially a summary of what Judis has been writing since the Obama inauguration, with growing urgency, and also the most impressive presentation of the “populist critique” of Obama as a politician who has missed crucial opportunities to mobilize middle-class support for policies aimed at curbing corporate power, instead becoming the symbol of corporate “bailouts” that have fed right-wing populism.
But while much of what Judis writes–particularly his examination of the political consequences of steps Obama took on TARP before even taking office–is very compelling, he goes too far, in my opinion, by comparing Obama’s “fall” to that of Jimmy Carter, another would-be “outsider reformer” who lost the allegiance of middle-class voters.
I suspect in using the Carter analogy Judis is encouraging Democrats to avoid the optimism associated with the most commonly cited Obama doppelganger, Bill Clinton, who, after all, was comfortably re-elected after the electoral disaster of 1994.
But the differences between Carter and Obama just can’t be ignored:
(1) Carter’s initial mistep, by most accounts, was ignoring the views and needs of congressional Democrats. Obama, by most accounts, has gone (if anything) overboard in consulting with and deferring to congressional Democrats.
(2) Carter was elected by a coalition that began to disappear the very day after the 1976 elections, thanks to his dependence on very conservative southern Democrats who supported him as a regional gesture but who truly belonged to, and soon migrated towards, the GOP. The main problem with Obama’s 2008 coalition is that it was disproportionately composed of demographic groups who rarely participate that much in midterm elections. But they aren’t going away in future presidential elections, and show no present signs of moving back towards the GOP.
(3) Despite his occasional efforts to place himself “above politics,” Jimmy Carter actually ran a 1980 general election campaign for a second term that was highly partisan and populist. Indeed, it was so abrasive that it helped Ronald Reagan, the veteran of nearly twenty years of right-wing politics, come across as a unifying figure. It’s not clear yet how Obama is going to present himself in 2012, but he certainly still has every approach available, including those that folks like Judis have been urging on him all along.
You should read Judis’ full account carefully, and make your own judgment as to whether Obama’s approach to Wall Street was dictated by the realities of a capitalist economy in which propitiation of financial markets by the White House is the only way to avoid complete economic catastrophe, or instead the by-product of a non-confrontational politician advised by people too close to the problem.
But I personally think Judis is judging the political trajectory of the Obama presidency far too hastily, and projecting a Carter-like “fall” that could look very different not far down the road, when right-wing populists are exposed for their anti-middle-class agenda, and Democrats regain their authentic voice.
by James Vega
In the aftermath of the elections of 2000, 2002 and 2004 Dems widely bewailed the superior “message discipline” of the Republicans. The GOP was credited with successfully guiding its members to focus on a small number of clear slogans and themes while Democrats tied themselves in knots.
In consequence, one key theme of a recent strategy meeting about the coming elections between Senate Democrats and senior staff and the Obama White House was that “there will be intense emphasis on keeping all candidates, offices and parties coordinated on the same message”.
Read the entire memo.
by James Vega
In recent weeks the DNC, OFA and other Democratic campaign organizations have refined their message strategy to define the coming election as a stark choice between two vastly different alternative futures rather than a referendum on Obama’s first year and a half in office and to suggest that a wide range of distasteful policies will be pursued if the Republicans win control of the House of Representatives.
This is fine as far as it goes but it does not bring into focus the distinct and uniquely aggressive threat that the militarized and hyper-ideological “take back our country” campaign poses to Democrats across the country.
Read the entire memo.
by James Vega
In recent days an important discussion has emerged among progressives about the proper strategy for the progressive movement. As Bill Scher, the Online Campaign Manager of the Campaign for America’s Future described it:
Read the entire memo.
This item by TDS Co-Editor William Galston is cross-posted from The New Republic.
Beneath the headlines of the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal survey are some key findings about the voter attitudes that will define the terrain of this year’s midterm election. For this Democrat, at least, they are deeply disquieting.
Three sets of findings jumped out at me. The first addresses the kind of election this will be.
· When asked if their representative’s positions on national issues or performance on local issues would be more important in influencing their vote for congress, 46 percent or respondents said national and 41 said percent local. In 2006, voters split 40 to 36; in 1994, 35 to 51.
· When asked a follow-up question about the relative importance of domestic issues such as the economy, health care, and immigration versus international issues such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and terrorism, 73 percent said domestic and 12 percent said international, while 15 percent rated them of equal importance. In 2006, the corresponding breakdown was 43/28/28.
In short, the survey supports what most observers have long believed: to a greater extent than usual, national issues will shape this year’s midterm, and of those issues, domestic issues are unusually dominant. (We know from numerous other polls that among domestic issues, concerns about the economy swamp everything else.)
In this context, we proceed to a second set of findings, which concern President Obama and the economy.
· Compared to when Barack Obama became president, only 31 percent of respondents think the country is better off, while 40 percent think it’s worse off and 28 percent believe it’s about the same.
· Only 37 percent are very or quite confident that Obama has the right set of goals and policies to improve the economy, versus 63 percent who are only somewhat or not at all confident. The represents a significant deterioration from June 2009, when “very” or “quite confident” totaled 46 percent and “only somewhat” or “not at all” stood at 53 percent.
· The public’s evaluation of Obama’s handling of the economy has deteriorated in recent months, from 48 approve, 46 disapprove in May to 46/50 in June and 44/52 today. This is consistent with the increasing pessimism the survey reports. In January of this year, 53 percent thought that that recession had not yet hit bottom and still had a way to go. Today, that figure stands at 64 percent.
· Perceptions of the president’s stance toward the business community don’t seem to be working in his favor. 29 percent see him as too anti-business, versus only 14 percent who view him as too pro-business.
This brings me to the third set of findings–public attitudes about the congress and political parties.
· Today, only 6 percent of respondents rate this congress as above average or one of the best, while fully 60 percent view it as below average or one of the worst. (By contrast, the breakdown before the 2006 midterms was 5 to 56; before the 1994 midterms, 7 to 44.)
· For the first time since 2004, Republicans enjoy an edge over Democrats on dealing with the economy.
· After a five year period in which Democrats held the advantage on reducing the federal budget deficit, Republicans have moved into an eight point lead.
· As recently as 2007, Democrats were favored over Republicans to control federal spending by a margin of 36 to 20. Now that has reversed, with Republicans favored 37 to 23.
In sum, this midterm election will be dominated by national issues, especially the economy; the public is losing confidence in President Obama’s economic program; public evaluations of the performance of the Democratic-led congress could hardly be worse; and Republicans have regained the advantage on key economic issues.
Not all the news in this survey is bad for Democrats. The generic vote is roughly tied–not great, but it could be worse. And by 43 to 39 percent, respondents were more worried by the absence of Republican alternatives to current policies than they were by the prospect that Democrats won’t change those policies.
Still, I came away from this survey with an even deeper sense of foreboding about the fall. To avert disaster, Democrats will have to exploit every local and candidate advantage they have, and their GOTV effort will have to overcome truly daunting obstacles.
