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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

LA Times Poll: Dems Gain in Congressional Races

The new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll just out gives the GOP a lot to worry about. The poll, conducted 6/24-27, paints “a gloomy picture for the Republicans in Congress,” with Dems poised to make substantial gains in the November elections.
The poll indicates Dems enjoy a 14-point advantage among registered voters in races for congressional seats “if elections were held today.” The poll also reveals a widening gender gap, more like a gender gulf, really, with women now giving Dems a 26 point advantage in their congressional districts. The poll found that 54 percent of all respondents wanted the Dems to control both houses of congress.
The poll also indicates that, even though Bush apparently gets a small post-Zarqawi bump in his approval ratings, he is more of a liability for congressional candidates than an asset. More than one-third of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for a congressional candidate who had Bush’s endorsement or who supported his policies, 45 percent said it would not matter and less than a fifth said they would be more likely to vote for a Bush-supported candidate.
The poll also addresses current opinion trends on a range of issues, including Iraq and immigration. For the time-challenged, LA Times columnist Ron Brownstein has a wrap-up here.

2 comments on “LA Times Poll: Dems Gain in Congressional Races

  1. Alan Abramowitz on

    Actually the results of the generic vote question are far from meaningless–there is a fairly strong correlation (about .8) between the results of the generic vote question and the actual seat swing in House elections . The current Democratic advantage of 10-12 points, if it continues into the fall, predicts substantial Republican losses in the House elections.

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  2. Jon Oetting on

    We have to remember that these generic congressional ballot polls are essentially meaningless as an indicator of the Democratic party’s chances of winning a majority in the House or Senate. Winning a majority is all about winning individual congressional districts, not the nation as a whole. Most analysts following individual district races are predicting a gain of a few seats for Dems, but not necessarily enough to win a majority in either house.

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