This just in from Michael McDonald of George Mason University:
New York just reported its certified election results. With only two states (Maine and Pennsylvania, I use their AP reported results) left to certify we have the following popular vote results:
Bush: 61,816,317 (50.62%)
Kerry: 58,824,880 (48.17%)
Total: 122,124,783 (turnout rate: 59.9% of voting-eligible population)
Bush’s popular vote margin is now 2,991,437 or 2.45 percentage points. In all likelihood, it will go lower when Pennsylvania certifies their results.
New York’s turnout is now 2.2 percentage points higher than 2000, meaning that turnout was up in every state.
Interesting. That means, among other things, that you could already round his victory down to 2 points, if you were dealing with whole numbers. And even if you’re dealing with two significant digits, very soon his margin will likely round down to 2.4 (instead of up to 2.5) which will further promote the sense it was a 2 point victory.
So: the mighty Bush win is now down to 2 points. Spread the word.