John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 44 percent of Florida RV’s, according to a new Quinnipiac University Poll conducted 10/22-26 .The Poll also found that, among the 16 percent of Flordians who have alread voted, Kerry leads by 56-39 percent.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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March 22: Ex-Democrat Tulsi Gabbard Can’t Decide Which Bad Ticket She Wants to Join
One of the odder phenomena of the 2024 presidential election is a certain 2020 Democratic candidate who has strayed very far since then. I took a look at her options at New York:
A month ago, when ex-Democratic congresswoman and 2020 presidential wannabe Tulsi Gabbard showed up at a Mar-a-Lago event, I wrote about the logic that could make her a highly unconventional but not entirely implausible 2024 running mate for Donald Trump. Once a major backer of Bernie Sanders, Gabbard’s trajectory toward MAGA-land has been steady since she left the Democratic Party in the fall of 2022, a main course she served up with a side dish of jarring candidate endorsements (e.g., of J.D. Vance). Even when she was still a Democrat running for president, though, her orientation was more MAGA-adjacent than you might expect, as Geoffrey Skelley explained in 2019:
“Gabbard’s supporters … are more likely to have backed President Trump in 2016, hold conservative views or identify as Republican compared to voters backing the other candidates. …
“In fact, Gabbard has become a bit of a conservative media darling in the primary, with conservative commentators like Ann Coulter and pro-Trump social media personalities like Mike Cernovich complimenting her for her foreign policy views. In a primary in which some 2020 Democratic contenders have boycotted Fox News, Gabbard has regularly appeared on the network. Just last week, Gabbard even did an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, a far-right political outlet. She’s also made appeals outside the political mainstream by going on The Joe Rogan Experience — one of the most popular podcasts in the country and a favored outlet for members of the Intellectual Dark Web, whose purveyors don’t fit neatly into political camps but generally criticize concepts such as political correctness and identity politics.”
So her parting blast at Democrats as controlled by an “elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness” didn’t come out of nowhere.
But much as Gabbard might be an outside-the-box running mate for the 45th president, it does seem there is another 2024 presidential candidate whose extreme hostility to mainstream institutions and difficult-to-categorize views might make him a better match for her: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. And sure enough, according to NBC News, the wiggy anti-vaxxer is interested in Gabbard:
“The four-term former member of Congress from Hawaii is now getting consideration for both former President Donald Trump’s and independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s tickets, two sources familiar with the candidates’ deliberations told NBC News.”
The prospect of choosing between these two politicians appears to have left Gabbard feeling she’s in the catbird seat:
“As one source said, Gabbard would be more likely to seriously consider running as Kennedy’s vice presidential nominee had she not been swept up by the possibility of serving with Trump. This person said Gabbard ‘was enticed’ by the chance of serving on Kennedy’s ticket but is now focused on the possibility that Trump will select her.
“’My understanding is that Tulsi is convinced that Trump is going to pick her,’ this person said. ‘Had that not been the case, she probably would have gone with Kennedy.’”
Since Kennedy has scheduled a running-mate reveal for March 26 in Oakland, we’ll know soon enough whether he chose Gabbard and Gabbard chose him. Others rumored to be on his short list include New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, former Minnesota governor Jesse Ventura, and California entrepreneur and major RFK Jr. donor Nicole Shanahan.
As NBC notes, it’s more than a bit unusual for people to be considered for multiple presidential tickets:
“[I]t’s exceedingly rare for a politician to attract interest from more than one presidential ticket or party. (Ahead of the 1952 election, Democrats and Republicans led dueling efforts to draft another politically ambiguous veteran, Dwight Eisenhower, the former supreme Allied commander in Europe during World War II, for the presidential race.)”
It’s hard to say what Tulsi Gabbard would think of this comparison. After all, Ike was a bit of a warmonger.
“Quinnipiac Poll: Kerry, Bush tied Among FL RV’s
John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 44 percent of Florida RV’s, according to a new Quinnipiac University Poll conducted 10/22-26 .The Poll also found that, among the 16 percent of Flordians who have alread voted, Kerry leads by 56-39 percent. ”
So does that mean that 5% of the people who voted are still undecided or is nader picking up those votes?
What can we discern if anything from the 16%? Are they coming from Democratic areas? Jebbie was making excuses recently on MTP about hurricane damage in Republican areas, with those affected having higher priorities than voting for Bush.
At this point, when a poll is posted, can you give a comparison to the most RECENT poll, from the same jurisdiction and pollster, so that TRENDS can be assessed. Then it would always be good to summarize what other polls are saying (eg the other two most recent Fla polls are also close, and trending from their previous polls in the same direction, w numbers.) It would take up just a little extra space but would make it much more easier to make sense amidst a blizzard of individual data bits.
The Broward County thing shows how completely easy it still is to steal elections. Note that the POSTAL SERVICE might be involved, which is national. “Oh but that’s forbidden!” Well, remember what the word “Law” means to Tory types like Bush. To them, obedience to (their) power is the holy writ of what THEY call ‘natural law’. Honest elections are mere dust in the balance by comparison. Only by an approach to modern methods of discovery that jettisons the catch-22s that applied in Florida 2000 can there be any chance of an honest election –(or fighting terrorism, but I’ll get into that after the election).
The means of stealing elections are so myriad, that only by aggressively pursuing what is underground, and not relying on the means of laundering these issues that exist within the system that exists for the PURPOSE of stealing/railroading elections and then laundering it, can people hope to have honest presidential and Congressional elections
Great news. Just a point of clarification regarding the sentence, “among the 16 percent of Flordians who have alread voted, Kerry leads by 56-39 percent.”
Does this mean,
a) 16% of all eligible voters in FL have already voted through early voting, and among those that have already voted, Kerry leads 56-39
OR
b) Among all voters who have voted through early voting, 16% of early voters have been polled and within that 16% sample of early voters, Kerry leads 56-39
Do you see the confusion? I can’t tell whether the 56-39 figure is representative of 100% of the early vote, and the early vote constitutes 16% of those eligible to vote on Nov. 2; or whether the 56-39 figure is representative of 16% of all early voters, and we don’t know what the ratio of people voting early represents among all people eligible to vte on Nov. 2.
I wrote a state-by-state synopsis called “The Gore States Today” at Daily Kos and thought I’d share it here, too:
http://dailykos.com/story/2004/10/28/132557/30
(Just copy and paste the URL into your browser if clicking on it doesn’t take you to the page.)
I wonder if that includes the missing 58,000 absentee ballots? 🙂
I agree, i am no expert but here is how i feel about it, in 2000 Bush had 49.2 % of the vote, he has less support now he is at about 47%-48%. People who are going to vote for him already know, everyone else who hasn’t made up their mind hasn’t made up their mind for a reason, becasue they don’t like something about Bush. Also, people regester to vote for a reason, even if only half of the new regestered voters vote, that will put kerry over the top, people don’t fight to keep the status-quo, the fight for change, and i think on election day, kerry will win by a comfortable margin, 30 votes in the true battle ground states.
No wonder there are reports this morning of Repub goons waiting outside early polling places in Florida, telling old ladies there are no elevators or air conditioning and that the wait is 6 hours long.
Can’t we DO something about those guys?