John Kerry leads George Bush 48-44 percent of Florida RV’s, according to a new Florida Insider Poll conducted 10/12-14 — a 7 point gain over the previous Insider poll taken just before the 3rd presidential debate.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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April 19: Will Chaos of Chicago ’68 Return This Year?
A lot of people who weren’t alive to witness the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago are wondering if it’s legendary chaos. I evaluated that possibility at New York:
When the Democratic National Committee chose Chicago as the site of the party’s 2024 national convention a year ago, no one knew incumbent presidential nominee Joe Biden would become the target of major antiwar demonstrations. The fateful events of October 7 were nearly six months away, and Biden had yet to formally announce his candidacy for reelection. So there was no reason to anticipate comparisons to the riotous 1968 Democratic Convention, when images of police clashing with anti–Vietnam War protesters in the Windy City were broadcast into millions of homes. Indeed, a year ago, a more likely analog to 2024 might have been the last Democratic convention in Chicago in 1996; that event was an upbeat vehicle for Bill Clinton’s successful reelection campaign.
Instead, thanks to intense controversy over Israel’s lethal operations in Gaza and widespread global protests aimed partly at Israel’s allies and sponsors in Washington, plans are well underway for demonstrations in Chicago during the August 19 to 22 confab. Organizers say they expect as many as 30,000 protesters to gather outside Chicago’s United Center during the convention. As in the past, a key issue is how close the protests get to the actual convention. Obviously, demonstrators want delegates to hear their voices and the media to amplify their message. And police, Chicago officials, and Democratic Party leaders want protests to occur as far away from the convention as possible. How well these divergent interests are met will determine whether there is anything like the kind of clashes that dominated Chicago ’68.
There are, however, some big differences in the context surrounding the two conventions. Here’s why the odds of a 2024 convention showdown rivaling 1968 are actually fairly low.
Gaza isn’t Vietnam.
Horrific as the ongoing events in Gaza undoubtedly are, and with all due consideration of the U.S. role in backing and supplying Israel now and in the past, the Vietnam War was a more viscerally immediate crisis for both the protesters who descended on Chicago that summer and the Americans watching the spectacle on TV. There were over a half-million American troops deployed in Vietnam in 1968, and nearly 300,000 young men were drafted into the Army and Marines that year. Many of the protesters at the convention were protesting their own or family members’ future personal involvement in the war, or an escape overseas beyond the Selective Service System’s reach (an estimated 125,000 Americans fled to Canada during the Vietnam War, and how to deal with them upon repatriation became a major political issue for years).
Even from a purely humanitarian and altruistic point of view, Vietnamese military and civilian casualties ran into the millions during the period of U.S. involvement. It wasn’t common to call what was happening “genocide,” but there’s no question the images emanating from the war (which spilled over catastrophically into Laos and especially Cambodia) were deeply disturbing to the consciences of vast numbers of Americans.
Perhaps a better analogy for the Gaza protests than those of the Vietnam era might be the extensive protests during the late 1970s and 1980s over apartheid in South Africa (a regime that enjoyed explicit and implicit backing from multiple U.S. administrations) and in favor of a freeze in development and deployment of nuclear weapons. These were significant protest movements, but still paled next to the organized opposition to the Vietnam War.
Political conventions are different today.
One reason the 1968 Chicago protests created such an indelible image is that the conflict outside on the streets was reflected in conflict inside the convention venue. For one thing, 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey had not quelled formal opposition to his selection when the convention opened. He never entered or won a single primary. One opponent who did, Eugene McCarthy, was still battling for the nomination in Chicago. Another, Robert F. Kennedy, had been assassinated two months earlier (1972 presidential nominee George McGovern was the caretaker for Kennedy delegates at the 1968 convention). There was a highly emotional platform fight over Vietnam policy during the convention itself; when a “peace plank” was defeated, New York delegates led protesters singing “We Shall Overcome.” Once violence broke out on the streets, it did not pass notice among the delegates, some of whom had been attacked by police trying to enter the hall. At one point, police actually accosted and removed a TV reporter from the convention for some alleged breach in decorum.
By contrast, no matter what is going on outside the United Center, the 2024 Democratic convention is going to be totally wired for Joe Biden, with nearly all the delegates attending pledged to him and chosen by his campaign. Even aside from the lack of formal opposition to Biden, conventions since 1968 have become progressively less spontaneous and more controlled by the nominee and the party that nominee directs (indeed, the chaos in Chicago in 1968 encouraged that trend, along with near-universal use of primaries to award delegates, making conventions vastly less deliberative). While there may be some internal conflict on the platform language related to Gaza, it will very definitely be resolved long before the convention and far away from cameras.
Another significant difference between then and now is that convention delegates and Democratic elected officials generally will enter the convention acutely concerned about giving aid and comfort to the Republican nominee, the much-hated, much-feared Donald Trump. Yes, many Democrats hated and feared Richard Nixon in 1968, but Democrats were just separated by four years from a massive presidential landslide and mostly did not reckon how much Nixon would be able to straddle the Vietnam issue and benefit from Democratic divisions. That’s unlikely to be the case in August of 2024.
Brandon Johnson isn’t Richard Daley.
Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley was a major figure in the 1968 explosion in his city. He championed and defended his police department’s confrontational tactics during the convention. At one point, when Senator Abraham Ribicoff referred from the podium to “gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago,” Daley leaped up and shouted at him with cameras trained on his furious face as he clearly repeated an obscene and antisemitic response to the Jewish politician from Connecticut. Beyond his conduct on that occasion, “Boss” Daley was the epitome of the old-school Irish American machine politician and from a different planet culturally than the protesters at the convention.
Current Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson, who was born the year of Daley’s death, is a Black progressive and labor activist who is still fresh from his narrow 2023 mayoral runoff victory over the candidate backed by both the Democratic Establishment and police unions. While he is surely wary of the damage anti-Israel and anti-Biden protests can do to the city’s image if they turn violent, Johnson is not without ties to protesters. He broke a tie in the Chicago City Council to ensure passage of a Gaza cease-fire resolution earlier this year. His negotiating skills will be tested by the maneuvering already underway with protest groups and the Democratic Party, but he’s not going to be the sort of implacable foe the 1968 protesters encountered.
The whole world (probably) won’t be watching.
The 1968 Democratic convention was from a bygone era of gavel-to-gavel coverage by the three broadcast-television networks that then dominated the media landscape and the living rooms of the country. When they were being bludgeoned by the Chicago police, protesters began chanting, “The whole world is watching,” which wasn’t much of an exaggeration. Today’s media coverage of major-party political conventions is extremely limited and (like coverage of other events) fragmented. If violence breaks out this time in Chicago, it will get a lot of attention, albeit much of it bent to the optics of the various media outlets covering it. But the sense in 1968 that the whole nation was watching in horror as an unprecedented event rolled out in real time will likely never be recovered.
Despite Strategic Vision’s leanings, the Boca Raton News story has SV admitting that Kerry picked up 5 points in Ohio from the debates. No other specifics were given about their Ohio numbers.
The Newsweek poll that showed Kerry with a lead among men while Bush leads among women simply shows that that poll is absolutely worthless. Anyone with a shred of intelligence knows that the gender gap is about 8-10 points and that there is simply NO chance that Kerry will win the men while losing the women. Can’t possibly be true and any poll that shows otherwise is a complete waste of newsprint. The most ridiculous part is that Newsweek editors print this result with a straight face, without even bothering to mention that if true it would be an immense historic shift in voting patterns!
In answer to the Texeira pronunciation question, on the assumption that Ruy is too busy crunching numbers to respond, I have it on good authority that his last name is pronounced Te-SHER-a.
I will take a stab at the question about the newly registered voters:
According to zogby, Kerry has a small lead among newly registered voters 49-42.
I suspect that most of the undecides among the newly registered voters will go to kerry. I think it will end up being something like 55-45.
http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10022
Hopefully this will help the democrats change the 39D to 35R. to 40D 34R, and with the massive get out the vote effort, maybe even a little better.
Teixeira, a Portuguese (and Brazilian) surname is pronounced “Teshera.”
partial answer to Bob H —
I’m sure you know much of this generally and are looking for specific numbers, but the polls of late have been showing an increasing divergence between ‘sure to vote’ voters — Bush lead, all the way to ‘registered’ — Kerry lead, sometimes substantial. It is difficult to say what level of turnout means which candidate gets what since it depends on WHOSE supporters turn out! A lot of the ‘registered’ voters not turning up as likely are probably recent registrants, including a large proportion of them young and concerned about the draft. THAT demographic’s turnout may well determine the presidential AND the Congressional outcome.
I understand that the number of new registered voters in CO. is so huge that the Sec. of State has said that people will have to work night and day to complete the data entry before 11/2. That augurs well for Ken Salaszar and Kerry/Edwards in that more new voters in that state are more likely to be Dem supporters than not. Anyone have a view on that?
I have been wondering about the simple advantage of always having your name listed first in the publishing of survey after survey. In the asking of the questions the names are usually rotated, but in reporting results Bush is almost always listed first. Bush, then Kerry? Why not Kerry, then Bush?
Hi everyone,
Well, I am very happy to see this poll as I live in Palm Beach County (Jupiter) Florida and I have to say that I was getting very worried about Kerry’s numbers and him not being able to gain any ground on Bush. I also have to say that the Repulicans down here are very hungry for a Bush win and I see more Bush stickers on cars that I do Kerry stickers. I am apart of the democratic club down here and the democrats don’t appear to be very motivated. I can’t believe it since this was such a democratic county. Julia
If you track Dale’s Electoral College Breakdown, the numbers slowly get better and better. He doesn’t post this latest florida result, and if he did Kerry would be ahead. I also agree that the Bush/Rove campaign is spinning in circles right now trying to get a grip! Yes!
Much Kudos to Our Guy for a brilliant performance in the debates with an historical result of turning the race around!
“He would rather protect his rich friends than help you all in the middle class”
That’s a democratic campaign that stands up and fights!
I think this election will be determined by two factors: turnout and fraud. Maybe the high Democratic turnout will cancel out the Republican fraud.
Neither factor can be assessed by polls right now.
New newsweek poll puts kerry down by 2 among reg. voters, and down 50-44 among likely voters.
However, This poll seems extremely strange. It has Bush with a lead among women, and kerry with a lead among men. I somehow don’t believe it.
This election has reached the tipping point. BC04 is flying apart at the seams, the media (pathetic as they are) have juicy stories just landing in their lazy laps — Voter highjinx abounding, more Bush docs, Iraq spiraling and the Dow puckering. Is there enough time? Kerry 52% Bush 46%, Kerry +40 EVs
How does one pronounce
TEIXEIRA?
The new Newsweek poll shows Bush ahead by a few points with registered, more ahead with likely, voters.
What was interesting in the article, and the first time I’ve seen it broken down was this concerning new voters: “Kerry now leads Bush 57 percent to 36 percent among those who identify themselves as first-time voters”
Turnout.
Addy
Can Ruy make some comments about how turnout is likely to affect the race, and what he guesses it might be? Kevin Philips discussed this last night on NOW, and seemed to imply that a 55% turnout combined with Bush approval at 47% or so means Bush is swept into the trash. 55% would seem to favor the good guys?
Altough this post is not about polling I felt it was an important read in attracting conservative swing Republicans.
“The conservative case for Kerry ”
Clyde Prestowitz
Washington, DC
http://tinyurl.com/4g7ov
As a former Reagan-administration official, registered Republican, born-again Christian, and traditional conservative, I am going to vote for John Kerry. So are many other old-line Republicans. Here’s why…
TERROR … Oct.27 …. I’m not afraid of no stinkin terror, I have a handy supply of duck tape & plastic
It’s been noted on another thread already, but the Washington Post poll (ending Oct. 10) shows a tie, both in LV and RV in Florida.
This is all great news to me. In my heart, I think I’d started to concede Florida to Bush. Having it in play is huge. Assuming Kerry gets Pennsylvania (and I saw one report that Bush was pulling out of there to focus on Ohio and Florida), then either Ohio or Florida would likely be enough to put him over the top. It gets a bit tricky with other states, but it would look awfully good. I’m very excited about having two big targets to pursue instead of just one.
Speaking of seniors in the swing states, there are huge numbers of “snow birds” who travel between FL and the northern swing states of OH, PA, MO and WI. And many of them have children who are aware of the health care problem.
It makes sense that Rove wants to keep inserting distractions like Mary Cheney in order to prevent focus from resting too long on any substantive issues.
I guess we should expect that on October 27 there will be a “terror alert”.
Furthermore, Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster. More so than other pollsters, Strategic Vision show stronger support for Bush. Yet even they say that Kerry picked up many points in Ohio, Wisconsin etc
This poll is particularly encouraging, partly because Insider pollster Matt Towery is a Republican. The analysis argues compellingly that health care reform gives Kerry serious traction with seniors, who have the highest turnout rates. I hope the Dem campaign takes note and runs strong health care reform ads in OH, PA and MO, as well as FL.