Bush leads Kerry 48-44 among nation-wide RV’s in a new Time magazine Poll conducted 9/21-23. (Bush was up by 12 among RVs in Time’s poll 2 weeks earlier).
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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March 28: RIP Joe Lieberman, a Democrat Who Lost His Way
I was sorry to learn of the sudden death of 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman. But his long and stormy career did offer some important lessons about party loyalty, which I wrote about at New York:
Joe Lieberman was active in politics right up to the end. The former senator was the founding co-chair of the nonpartisan group No Labels, which is laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign on behalf of a yet-to-be-identified bipartisan “unity ticket.” Lieberman did not live to see whether No Labels will run a candidate. He died on Wednesday at 82 due to complications from a fall. But this last political venture was entirely in keeping with his long career as a self-styled politician of the pragmatic center, which often took him across party boundaries.
Lieberman’s first years in Connecticut Democratic politics as a state legislator and then state attorney general were reasonably conventional. He was known for a particular interest in civil rights and environmental protection, and his identity as an observant Orthodox Jew also drew attention. But in 1988, the Democrat used unconventional tactics in his challenge to Republican U.S. senator Lowell Weicker. Lieberman positioned himself to the incumbent’s right on selected issues, like Ronald Reagan’s military operations against Libya and Grenada. He also capitalized on longtime conservative resentment of his moderate opponent, winning prized endorsements from William F. and James Buckley, icons of the right. Lieberman won the race narrowly in an upset.
Almost immediately, Senator Lieberman became closely associated with the Democratic Leadership Council. The group of mostly moderate elected officials focused on restoring the national political viability of a party that had lost five of the six previous presidential elections; it soon produced a president in Bill Clinton. Lieberman became probably the most systematically pro-Clinton (or in the parlance of the time, “New Democrat”) member of Congress. This gave his 1998 Senate speech condemning the then-president’s behavior in the Monica Lewinsky scandal as “immoral” and “harmful” a special bite. He probably did Clinton a favor by setting the table for a reprimand that fell short of impeachment and removal, but without question, the narrative was born of Lieberman being disloyal to his party.
Perhaps it was his public scolding of Clinton that convinced Al Gore, who was struggling to separate himself from his boss’s misconduct, to lift Lieberman to the summit of his career. Gore tapped the senator to be his running mate in the 2000 election, making him the first Jewish vice-presidential candidate of a major party. He was by all accounts a disciplined and loyal running mate, at least until that moment during the Florida recount saga when he publicly disclaimed interest in challenging late-arriving overseas military ballots against the advice of the Gore campaign. You could argue plausibly that the ticket would have never been in a position to potentially win the state without Lieberman’s appeal in South Florida to Jewish voters thrilled by his nomination to become vice-president. But many Democrats bitter about the loss blamed Lieberman.
As one of the leaders of the “Clintonian” wing of his party, Lieberman was an early front-runner for the 2004 presidential nomination. A longtime supporter of efforts to topple Saddam Hussein, Lieberman had voted to authorize the 2003 invasion of Iraq, like his campaign rivals John Kerry and John Edwards and other notable senators including Hillary Clinton. Unlike most other Democrats, though, Lieberman did not back off this position when the Iraq War became a deadly quagmire. Ill-aligned with his party to an extent he did not seem to perceive, his presidential campaign quickly flamed out, but not before he gained enduring mockery for claiming “Joe-mentum” from a fifth-place finish in New Hampshire.
Returning to the Senate, Lieberman continued his increasingly lonely support for the Iraq War (alongside other heresies to liberalism, such as his support for private-school education vouchers in the District of Columbia). In 2006, Lieberman drew a wealthy primary challenger, Ned Lamont, who soon had a large antiwar following in Connecticut and nationally. As the campaign grew heated, President George W. Bush gave his Democratic war ally a deadly gift by embracing him and kissing his cheek after the State of the Union Address. This moment, memorialized as “The Kiss,” became central to the Lamont campaign’s claim that Lieberman had left his party behind, and the challenger narrowly won the primary. However, Lieberman ran against him in the general election as an independent, with significant back-channel encouragement from the Bush White House (which helped prevent any strong Republican candidacy). Lieberman won a fourth and final term in the Senate with mostly GOP and independent votes. He was publicly endorsed by Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani, among others from what had been the enemy camp.
The 2006 repudiation by his party appeared to break something in Lieberman. This once-happiest of happy political warriors, incapable of holding a grudge, seemed bitter, or at the very least gravely offended, even as he remained in the Senate Democratic Caucus (albeit as formally independent). When his old friend and Iraq War ally John McCain ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, Lieberman committed a partisan sin by endorsing him. His positioning between the two parties, however, still cost him dearly: McCain wanted to choose him as his running mate, before the Arizonan’s staff convinced him that Lieberman’s longtime pro-choice views and support for LGBTQ rights would lead to a convention revolt. The GOP nominee instead went with a different “high-risk, high-reward” choice: Sarah Palin.
After Barack Obama’s victory over Lieberman’s candidate, the new Democratic president needed every Democratic senator to enact the centerpiece of his agenda, the Affordable Care Act. He got Lieberman’s vote — but only after the senator, who represented many of the country’s major private-insurance companies, forced the elimination of the “public option” in the new system. It was a bitter pill for many progressives, who favored a more robust government role in health insurance than Obama had proposed.
By the time Lieberman chose to retire from the Senate in 2012, he was very near to being a man without a party, and he reflected that status by refusing to endorse either Obama or Mitt Romney that year. By then, he was already involved in the last great project of his political career, No Labels. He did, with some hesitation, endorse Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016. But his long odyssey away from the yoke of the Democratic Party had largely landed him in a nonpartisan limbo. Right up until his death, he was often the public face of No Labels, particularly after the group’s decision to sponsor a presidential ticket alienated many early supporters of its more quotidian efforts to encourage bipartisan “problem-solving” in Congress.
Some will view Lieberman as a victim of partisan polarization, and others as an anachronistic member of a pro-corporate, pro-war bipartisan elite who made polarization necessary. Personally, I will remember him as a politician who followed — sometimes courageously, sometimes foolishly — a path that made him blind to the singular extremism that one party has exhibited throughout the 21st century, a development he tried to ignore to his eventual marginalization. But for all his flaws, I have no doubt Joe Lieberman remained until his last breath committed to the task he often cited via the Hebrew term tikkun olam: repairing a broken world.
Nice Blog!
Reference the New York Times article on voter pick up in Ohio: the same information is also being reported by media outlets in Ohio, not a hotbed of liberalism.
Oh, the selected prime minister of iraq comes here and in effect tries to interfere with the election. he lies about what is happening in Iraq and the cons are outraged at Kerry? Excuse me, boys! The one to be outraged at are the liars, bush and alawi. And as i recall newsweek and cnn both use gallup poll numbers. that has been shown to be out of touch with reality. so where is the real discussion? where is the discussion about over 1000 dead in iraq? the WMD? the missing osama? the deficit? What in the world is wrong with you conservatives(not anappropirate name) more like big spenders? You attack the truth teller and applaud the liar. what is is the night gallery in real time? bush is a liar and a loser. he is losing the election. they lied to you about iraq. the media kissed up and carried it along. now why is there any question that the media is not doing it again. i would assume they were without any real indication they had reformed. duh!
Elrod,
Sorry to disappoint you but insofar as GWB is concerned, Saletan is no centrist – Indeed, he is a card carrying member of the Michael Moore (FahrenHype 911), Whoppi Goldberg (Kiss my ___), Terry McCaulliffe wing of the Dem party – In other words, he’s a Bush Hater in sheep’s clothing.
As for your supposition that Kerry’s attacks are resonating, reasonable people will disagree – Especially when you consider the battleground poll released last night showing he’s trailing GWB by 6 points.
Frankly, any benefit from his anti-Iraq War speeches was mitigated by his condescending and haughty attack on the very courageous PM of Iraq; Who couldn’t even thank us without having to see Kerry’s mug & gait flailing away on a subject which he knew very little about other than what sees on CBS and in the NY Times.
The Time poll is the best news I’ve read in awhile! 36R – 30D among RVs and the gap is closing. More important is Kerry’s attack on Bush’s Iraq policy is clearly hitting. The idea of a Bush-Iraq credibility gap is a powerful one. Hopefully Kerry can drive that point home in the debates.
BTW, this Will Saletan article on debate tactics is great. Saletan is a centrist who probably understands swing voters better than most of us.
http://slate.msn.com/id/2107141/
NEWSFLASH: BATTLEGROUND POLL – GWB 51%, KERRY 45%, GWB JOB APPROVAL 53%…
http://www.tarrance.com/Week2charts.pdf
Kerry is also behind 20% in fighting terrorism and Iraq; It’s tough for Kerry to win facing numbers like that.
I see many posters here are getting excited about the new Dem registration being reported by the NY Times in FLA & OH, and how these new Dems are not being captured in surveys. I have news for you all: The NY Times, like CBS, is in the tank for Kerry, and is trying desperately to salvage his candidate, especially since all their Abu Gharib, Richard Clarke, etc., stories couldn’t do the trick.
They also have reported very little on all the stories of possible vote fraud being perpetrated by Dems – ie 20,000 with dual NY & FLA voter registration reported by the NY Daily News a few weeks back, dead Dems in WIS with voter registration cards, et al.
They also do not fully explain how this phenomena is not the typical voter registration churn, or capture the intensity and enthusiasm likely to occur among Reps this year because of anger over the CBS fraud, the over the top hatred of President Bush, Kerry’s trashing and unpopularity with the military, etc.
My advice to Kerry supporters: Believe the NY Times at your peril.
To win, Bush must carry Ohio. Similarly, Kerry must take PA. to win. The question then might be, is Ohio more within the reach of Bush than PA is within the reach of Kerry?
Seems to me that Kerry must put more resources into PA to assure a win. Once he’s sure that the Keystone State is safely locked up, he can make his move on Ohio. The sooner he locks PA up the better his chances overall.
My biggest concern is the one someone mentioned: The lengths to which Republicans will go to reject Democratic voter registration. Republicans are notorious for doing such things to gain advantage, since they know they can’t win heads up.
El Guapo, you were great in THE THREE AMIGOS.
Regarding the comment above about the GOP skullduggery in rejecting new voter registrations….
OK, I agree that the GOP will stop at nothing to win this. But, at least in Pennsylvania, when you register to vote it’s not a mystery whether or not your application has been accepted or not. You get a voter registration card in the mail. So it’s not like you show up on election day and they can say, “Oops, sorry. You’re not on the rolls.”
OK…they’re Republicans…they cheat…so they COULD say that. But people who have just registered need to follow-up to make sure their applications went through and thus minimize the likelihood.
Sep 26
Rasmussen has a Bush only +1 in the horserace.
FL Kerry +1; MI K +4; MN tied; OH Bush + 4; NV tied.
A trend? We’ll see. Rove is dragging his feet on debate #1. Trying to raise expectations? Who would imagine?
Ethan, you hit upon something that I’d been mulling over myself for a while. If the popular Time/Gallup polls now show the race tightening (which they do) and they still oversample Republicans (which they do) then there can be only one conclusion:
Kerry pulls off an upset in a few “red” states.
Not to jinx it, but look for Kerry wins in almost all the “true battleground” states, plus maybe even a Kerry upset in a “close red” state (like VA, NC, or AR).
Plus the NY Times had an article showing registration in Dem-leaning counties was 6 times the registration jump in Rep-leaning counties in OH, and with a similar Dem registration lead in FL.
And Bush is now on the defensive, having to explain his rosy Iraq comments to an increasingly skeptical public.
There is a HUGE increase in new voters in both Ohio and Florida according to the New York Times. I live in Ohio and local news media is also reporting a huge increase in new voters in Democratic areas of Ohio. Will polls catch those new voters? How do polls handle situations where there is volatility in the numbers of registered voters?
To me the most important part of that poll was not that Kerry cut Bushes lead in half, it was two of the other findings; A majority think that Iraq has made the world less safe and 60% of likely voters find Kerry likable.
Those two things tell me that we can win.
Nice observation by Gabby Hayes, sidekick to Roy Rogers whom we all love and remember dearly. It’s clear from analyses here and elsewhere that these media-bought polls are cooking the books. It’s beginning to look like deja vu all over again vis a vis 2000 with polls showing Bush up several points just days before the election. Anyone for an October surprise?
Now we have destroyer fleets of the coast of N Korea. Dare anyone suggest Bush/Rove might be manufacturing a “crisis” or “imminent threat of ICBMs from NK” ?
Film at 11.
It would appear that Scott Rasmussen and Ruy Tiexera agree in principle of the RV/LV – 2-way/3-way thing.
http://www.capitolhillblue.com/artman/publish/article_5283.shtml
It’s an interesting analysis Gabby. I would tend to buy high 80s or even low 90s for the Bush voters. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 80-90% of registered voters do turn out to vote in a typical presidential election and it’s not uncommon to see slightly higer turnout for Republicans than Democrats (otherwise Democrats would win every time). But 97% does seem a little over the top.
While we’re on the subject, does anyone have any idea why Marist College’s LVs always seem to number <70% of their RVs?
BTW, wasn’t this Time poll something we were completely trashing a few weeks ago? Why would they be right now if they weren’t then?
No Gollum,
Ruys prime directive is to compare “apples to apples” – even if those apples have worms in them.
As was posted more extensively under the CBS poll story, the question will be how many of these new voter registration forms will be accepted by the Republican secretary’s of state in these battleground states, and how many will be thrown out for various technicalities like failing to check a box that you are over 18, even though you have provided your date of birth on another line. I think the Republican operative quoted in the NYT registration story has already previewed the upcoming Republican line for when these new voters are turned away at the polls on Nov 2: that the progressive voter registration groups did “sloppy work” which required all those nice new voter registrations to be thrown out by the poor secretarys of state, what a shame, etc. etc. Our opponents are quite determinedly anti-democratic and will stop at nothing to win.
Time Poll Sept. 21-23, 2004. N=1,014 registered voters nationwide, 877 likely voters.
I will now demonstrate how flawed this poll is.
According to the Time Poll, Bush has an edge of 54-42 among likely voters.
The pool of “likely voters” is 877 voters. 54% of that number is 474 “likely Bush Voters.”
Compare the pool of 1014 “registered voters.” 48% of that number is 487 “registered Bush Voters.”
So, we now know that under the Time poll, 474 likely Bush voters exist among 487 registered Bush voters.
In other words, Time is reporting that 97.3% of the registered Bush voters will vote.
Now compare the way they downsize the Kerry numbers:
Kerry has 44% of 1014, which is 446 registered voters.
But he only gets 42% of the 877 “likely voters” or 368 voters.
In other words, Time is reporting that only 82.5% of registered Kerry voters will vote.
To summarize, using their “likely voter” spin, they eliminated only 13 Bush voters, but threw out 78 Kerry voters to create a 54-42 split. That isn’t science, it’s skullduggery.
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I don’t see much data to suggest either giddyness or gloom. The election is still several weeks away. The dynamics will change in some way during this time. Perhaps multiple times. Be patient and effortful.
In that light, I do offer some promising information. I’ve been worrying about Pennsylvania. Using race2004.net for my state poll source, several polls right after the Republican convention mostly showed Bush in the lead. In polls dated at race2004 from 9/7-/9/15, [and not including polls from GOP or Dem organizations] Bush is up by 4% (Quinnipiac), 3% (TNS), 1% (Rasmussen), and 1% (Gallup). The race was tied per Keystone. Kerry was up in just 1 of these 6 polls (by 2%, Survey USA).
In the last 6 polls, 9/16-24, Kerry has been in the lead in 5. 3% for Opinion Dynamics and Zogby, 2% for Temple, and 1% for ARG and Mason Dixon. Bush led by 1% in the Rasmussen poll.
Kerry has to hold Pennsylvania.
And then there’s Ohio. In three of the 6 polls from 9/7 to 9/18, Bush had leads from 7-11%. Overall, these 6 averaged (unweighted) to a 5.5% /Bush lead. The last three polls have been closer, with Bush up by 4% (Opinion Dynamics), 3% (Rasmussen), and 2% (ARG).
Kerry needs to find a way to pull out Ohio. If he can get Ohio and hold all the Gore 2000 states, that would give him a 280-258 win. Kerry could then withstand losing Wisconsin and pull out a 270-268 win. [If that one Maine district were also to go to Bush, Kerry would then need to pull out one other small state, such as New Hampshire.]
There are other options. And this “only pick up Ohio” option would require Kerry either rallying from behind (2-6% in polls of the last week) in Iowa or pulling out two other small states such as New Hampshire (tied in the only poll from last week), Nevada (down 2% and 9% in the two polls from last week), or Arkansas (no polls last week, Kerry down 3% or tied the week before).
This is a very close thing this year. Keep focused and keep at it. And keep your fingers crossed for Kerry to do well this Thursday. Does anyone know how his cold is?
Sep 25
Rasmussen today has Bush only 0.6 ahead in the horserace. FL Bush +1, OH +3, PA +1, MN and NV tied. Kerry leads in MI.
And the voter reg numbers in the NY Times story is very heartening indeed.
QUESTION FOR RUY (or anyone else)
What do you make of the NYTimes article in Sunday’s pages that claims groups like ACT, etc., are kicking so much butt registering new Democratic voters. If that story is true — and the Times seems to have done exhaustive number crunching — then it would suggest that not only are the party ID weights misguided but that they ought to be weighted even more toward Demos than in 2000.
Is it possible that the 2004 election — with all the newly registered voters, with the gazillions of Bush-haters who don’t have a landline to answer phone polls, with so many young voters outraged after seeing Fahrenheit — will completely change the polling paradigm? It’s the TIVO election, in so many ways. People pay attention to what they want to pay attention to, only answer the phone if someone they know is calling and do not fall into any currently identifiable niches.
It just seems like the pollsters are using 20th Century methods to figure out the first race of the 21st Century.
Hey, I have a question for Ruy.
Over the last few weeks, you have written about popular polls, such as Gallup/CNN and said that they have oversampled Rs as a percentage of their sample population.
In the recent days, these polls have been tightening showing a closer race with Bush still in the lead, does this mean that in a sample that is overly populated with Republicans, Bush is ahead only by a small margin? Or have they changed their samples to include more Ds?
I think the implication here is obvious, so Ruy please explain this before I get giddy and wrongly warm myself to the thoughts of an election day landslide for Kerry!
Now the questions are: Will the media report this with the same zeal as they did the polling data of two weeks ago? What will the administration do to divert attention away from a “come back”-oriented story line in the press?
Also, an interesting story in the NYTimes about the onslaught of new voters registering in key states:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/26/politics/campaign/26vote.html?hp
Now…will they make it to the polls? Will the polls accept them?
This time: Likely voters reported party identifications are: 36% Republican, 31% Democratic, 24% Independents. Registered voters party affiliations are: 36% Republican, 30% Democratic, 24% Independent.
The 9/10 poll: Likely voters reported party identifications are: 34% Republican, 35% Democratic, 22% Independents. Registered voters party affiliations are: 31% Republican, 32% Democratic, 26% Independent.
Am I missing something? More Republicans, fewer Dems and the margin is still cut in half.
I don’t believe that Nader has support as high as 5%, which makes me disbelieve the rest of the poll.
BTW, wasn’t this Time poll something we were completely trashing a few weeks ago? Why would they be right now if they weren’t then?
It boggles my little mind. Who are they polling? I can’t believe that Bush fatigue has simply vanished.