A lot of people who weren’t alive to witness the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago are wondering if it’s legendary chaos. I evaluated that possibility at New York:
When the Democratic National Committee chose Chicago as the site of the party’s 2024 national convention a year ago, no one knew incumbent presidential nominee Joe Biden would become the target of major antiwar demonstrations. The fateful events of October 7 were nearly six months away, and Biden had yet to formally announce his candidacy for reelection. So there was no reason to anticipate comparisons to the riotous 1968 Democratic Convention, when images of police clashing with anti–Vietnam War protesters in the Windy City were broadcast into millions of homes. Indeed, a year ago, a more likely analog to 2024 might have been the last Democratic convention in Chicago in 1996; that event was an upbeat vehicle for Bill Clinton’s successful reelection campaign.
Instead, thanks to intense controversy over Israel’s lethal operations in Gaza and widespread global protests aimed partly at Israel’s allies and sponsors in Washington, plans are well underway for demonstrations in Chicago during the August 19 to 22 confab. Organizers say they expect as many as 30,000 protesters to gather outside Chicago’s United Center during the convention. As in the past, a key issue is how close the protests get to the actual convention. Obviously, demonstrators want delegates to hear their voices and the media to amplify their message. And police, Chicago officials, and Democratic Party leaders want protests to occur as far away from the convention as possible. How well these divergent interests are met will determine whether there is anything like the kind of clashes that dominated Chicago ’68.
There are, however, some big differences in the context surrounding the two conventions. Here’s why the odds of a 2024 convention showdown rivaling 1968 are actually fairly low.
Horrific as the ongoing events in Gaza undoubtedly are, and with all due consideration of the U.S. role in backing and supplying Israel now and in the past, the Vietnam War was a more viscerally immediate crisis for both the protesters who descended on Chicago that summer and the Americans watching the spectacle on TV. There were over a half-million American troops deployed in Vietnam in 1968, and nearly 300,000 young men were drafted into the Army and Marines that year. Many of the protesters at the convention were protesting their own or family members’ future personal involvement in the war, or an escape overseas beyond the Selective Service System’s reach (an estimated 125,000 Americans fled to Canada during the Vietnam War, and how to deal with them upon repatriation became a major political issue for years).
Even from a purely humanitarian and altruistic point of view, Vietnamese military and civilian casualties ran into the millions during the period of U.S. involvement. It wasn’t common to call what was happening “genocide,” but there’s no question the images emanating from the war (which spilled over catastrophically into Laos and especially Cambodia) were deeply disturbing to the consciences of vast numbers of Americans.
Perhaps a better analogy for the Gaza protests than those of the Vietnam era might be the extensive protests during the late 1970s and 1980s over apartheid in South Africa (a regime that enjoyed explicit and implicit backing from multiple U.S. administrations) and in favor of a freeze in development and deployment of nuclear weapons. These were significant protest movements, but still paled next to the organized opposition to the Vietnam War.
One reason the 1968 Chicago protests created such an indelible image is that the conflict outside on the streets was reflected in conflict inside the convention venue. For one thing, 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey had not quelled formal opposition to his selection when the convention opened. He never entered or won a single primary. One opponent who did, Eugene McCarthy, was still battling for the nomination in Chicago. Another, Robert F. Kennedy, had been assassinated two months earlier (1972 presidential nominee George McGovern was the caretaker for Kennedy delegates at the 1968 convention). There was a highly emotional platform fight over Vietnam policy during the convention itself; when a “peace plank” was defeated, New York delegates led protesters singing “We Shall Overcome.” Once violence broke out on the streets, it did not pass notice among the delegates, some of whom had been attacked by police trying to enter the hall. At one point, police actually accosted and removed a TV reporter from the convention for some alleged breach in decorum.
By contrast, no matter what is going on outside the United Center, the 2024 Democratic convention is going to be totally wired for Joe Biden, with nearly all the delegates attending pledged to him and chosen by his campaign. Even aside from the lack of formal opposition to Biden, conventions since 1968 have become progressively less spontaneous and more controlled by the nominee and the party that nominee directs (indeed, the chaos in Chicago in 1968 encouraged that trend, along with near-universal use of primaries to award delegates, making conventions vastly less deliberative). While there may be some internal conflict on the platform language related to Gaza, it will very definitely be resolved long before the convention and far away from cameras.
Another significant difference between then and now is that convention delegates and Democratic elected officials generally will enter the convention acutely concerned about giving aid and comfort to the Republican nominee, the much-hated, much-feared Donald Trump. Yes, many Democrats hated and feared Richard Nixon in 1968, but Democrats were just separated by four years from a massive presidential landslide and mostly did not reckon how much Nixon would be able to straddle the Vietnam issue and benefit from Democratic divisions. That’s unlikely to be the case in August of 2024.
Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley was a major figure in the 1968 explosion in his city. He championed and defended his police department’s confrontational tactics during the convention. At one point, when Senator Abraham Ribicoff referred from the podium to “gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago,” Daley leaped up and shouted at him with cameras trained on his furious face as he clearly repeated an obscene and antisemitic response to the Jewish politician from Connecticut. Beyond his conduct on that occasion, “Boss” Daley was the epitome of the old-school Irish American machine politician and from a different planet culturally than the protesters at the convention.
Current Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson, who was born the year of Daley’s death, is a Black progressive and labor activist who is still fresh from his narrow 2023 mayoral runoff victory over the candidate backed by both the Democratic Establishment and police unions. While he is surely wary of the damage anti-Israel and anti-Biden protests can do to the city’s image if they turn violent, Johnson is not without ties to protesters. He broke a tie in the Chicago City Council to ensure passage of a Gaza cease-fire resolution earlier this year. His negotiating skills will be tested by the maneuvering already underway with protest groups and the Democratic Party, but he’s not going to be the sort of implacable foe the 1968 protesters encountered.
The 1968 Democratic convention was from a bygone era of gavel-to-gavel coverage by the three broadcast-television networks that then dominated the media landscape and the living rooms of the country. When they were being bludgeoned by the Chicago police, protesters began chanting, “The whole world is watching,” which wasn’t much of an exaggeration. Today’s media coverage of major-party political conventions is extremely limited and (like coverage of other events) fragmented. If violence breaks out this time in Chicago, it will get a lot of attention, albeit much of it bent to the optics of the various media outlets covering it. But the sense in 1968 that the whole nation was watching in horror as an unprecedented event rolled out in real time will likely never be recovered.
Does anyone have information on the demographic makeup of those who participate in the Iowa Electronic Markets?
If participants in the IEM are disproportionately upscale, and if you believe, as I do, that the wealthiest people in this country are both increasingly out of touch with how those with ordinary means live, and less bound to the well being of citizens of ordinary means, that would be a reason not to give decisive weight to what the IEM says.
Ruy’s posts on the real health of the economy vs. how the WashPost sees it are a good example of how conservative business and economics coverage has become over the past two or three decades. It is overly focused on the stock market as an indicator of the health of the economy and it does not look beneath the surface when looking at issues such as the employment picture. This correlates with huge increases in pay and status for reporters for the elite print and television outlets which other media outlets feed off of. The folks doing the reporting are not middle class themselves. They are upper middle class and up, with incomes far higher than the median for the country as a whole. And their reporting reflects a mindset that is out of touch with how ordinary folks live in this country.
An acquaintance of mine is an investment advisor for a big firm. He’s a very nice guy, mild mannered, thoughtful, who has no use for the fundamentalists or foreign policy adventurism. He’s a blue-blooded Repub who voted for Bush and now knows W is incompetent. He also tells me a guy in the business he knows who has never voted Dem–and didn’t think it was possible he ever would–told him with great anguish that he’s voting for Kerry this time.
Anyway, I ask my acquaintance six weeks ago if the stock market analysts in his shop are weighing in yet on who they think will win the election. He says to me, very matter of factly, “Oh, yeah, yeah. Bush.”
I say “Oh?” He says “Oh, yeah. Easily.” I raise my eyebrows again.
No data offered, nothing. (I suspect he and his firm’s analysts were relying on the IEM data.)
He even tells me that historically the stock markets tail off in the first year of a presidency–unless it’s a Democrat who wins, in which case the markets go up. (! I think there was a big study by MetLife or some other insurance company on that.) Kerry, of course, would “tax the hell out of people.” (meaning wealthy people, of course–I rather doubt he knows the top marginal federal income tax rate under Eisenhower was 90%)
Go figure. But that’s his world–the markets start to turn up, the profit picture starts to look up…things are looking up from where he sits.
I just think he–and a whole lot of other folks up there in the economic stratosphere–are out of touch.
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
> Iowa Electronic Markets winner take all
> presidential future
> Shows Bush has regained his lead.
> IEM has one of the best records of predicting
> elections outcomes, I believe, better than opinion
> polls.
If I am not mistaken, it predicted Gore would win the 2000 elections though.
MARCU$
Tch, that one vote will be MINE. I call Japanese ambassador… even with Krazy Kim across the pond.
I do see your point, Mimiru. I predicted the rise in gas prices before the 2000 election. I told my friends, and especially the Bush supporters, that if Bush got in, watch the price of gas jump up like crazy. At the time we were paying $1.139 per gallon around here, and had been for several years. Sure enough, within six months, the price was close to $1.70. So I mentioned it to one of my friends and he said “At least Bush isn’t cheating on his wife.”
Some people you can’t pursuade, but for the rest, you do what you can, you use what you can. If it does turn out to be a close election, I won’t have to think that I didn’t do everything I could to pursuade the people I know to vote for Kerry. I don’t think a day goes by that I don’t talk up a Kerry proposal or point out a Bush failure to someone.
If we win by one vote, I want to be ambassador to Ireland. I really liked Ireland when I was there on vacation.
Those damn Iowans, first they rob me of my Dean (whose children I would have gladly borne) and now this.
Seriously though, just means we all have to work harder and that Kerry needs to start closing (which apparently he’s good at) as soon as the convention ends and keep right on closing until November.
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
Iowa Electronic Markets winner take all presidential future
Shows Bush has regained his lead. The Kerry campaign does not appear to be able to catch up and hold the ground (I suspect the difference is the Nader vote).
IEM has one of the best records of predicting elections outcomes, I believe, better than opinion polls.
My gut reaction is this election is still Bush by a squeaker. Most voters have already made up their minds, those who have not see Bush as a stronger leader than Kerry, in a time when ‘strength’ is the buzzword of the day.
The War on Terror and the Situation in Iraq favour a president: you don’t change horses in midstream.
Maybe not what people want to hear, but my bet is when that curtain closes, a lot of the doubters will opt for the guy they think is more forthright, more determined, more focused aka GW Bush.
> what it means, and what I certainly will
> say, is that bin Laden could have been captured
> two years ago if they had cared to find him, but
> they let him go and ignored him until it was
> useful to them.
Also, there are the reports that an Al Qaeda camp was operational in northern Iraq (Kurdistan) in late 2002. Saddam had no control over this area, so it wasn’t his fault. But some reports claim Al Zarqawi and possibly other AQ bigwigs were there. You’d think the Bushies would have jumped at the opportunity to bomb the “evil guys”, right? Wrongggg… They dithered and dallied, ostensibly because they were “not sure” about the validity. But some government officials reportedly suspected that the hesitance was due to fears that it might complicate the ongoing effort to attack Saddam.
—
Iran could be another possible attack opportunity for Kerry in the “War on Terror” debates. Here is a nation that, unlike Iraq, has a real and undisputed track record in the business of supporting Islamic fanatics across the globe. They seem to have a more advanced nuclear program too, and the IAEA is worried about it. The latest news is Iran may have sheltered some Al Qaeda operatives — including ten of the 9/11 terrorists had crossed Iran from Saudi Arabia the year before the WTC attacks. “War on Terror” hawks such as Michael Ledeen (who, to be sure, is a fairly obnoxious guy) are furious about the Bush Administration’s incoherent response to all of this during the past three years.
—
Kerry could boost his hawkish credentials by promising to divert more attention to Iran, while at the same time reiterating his criticism that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake.
MARCU$
Because the constant redistricting battles I’ve read that it won’t translate into more than perhaps 5 seats changing either way.
Any historical perspective on the generic congressional choice advantage for D’s this year that Rasmussen seems to be measuring consistantly at 5-8 points? Is is more or less than previous years? How many seats gain might it be likely to translate to?
I can’t really think of any other administration that would pull this kind of shit and do it so badly, and for those not up on the pervasive incompetence and process of the administation, this claim is so substantively crazy that for the average person the claim will be too outrageous to be believed.
I’d also like to see Ruy’s comment on the Rasmussen poll’s shrinking Dem advantange when it comes to congress.
Mimiru, what it means, and what I certainly will say, is that bin Laden could have been captured two years ago if they had cared to find him, but they let him go and ignored him until it was useful to them. Otherwise he would have wandered around free forever. And that is the point of what I was saying. These “good things” meant nothing to them until it became campaign fodder, and then it was very important indeed. Predicting it enforces the notion that it was political and lends credibility to those who claim the “surprise” was entirely political.
What do you think explains the trend in the Rasmussen tracking poll? http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm I’m not so much interested in today’s point-estimate (Bush 47; Kerry 45) as in the trend–Kerrey got about a 3-point bounce from Edwards’ selection, but then Bush gradually but inexorably took the lead back. This is the only daily tracking poll that’s publicly available, to my knowledge.
Who cares if it was predicted? What kind of rebuttal is that? I can tell you what the response of the average person would be to THAT claim:
“They’ll do anything they can to win won’t they? Why aren’t you celebrating his capture?”
Inre: October Surprise. Already pre-empted, it is easily countered by pointing out that it was predicted and that the Bushies only did it to win the election, not because of a commitment to justice.
Inre: Oil price crash. Same as above. Clearly a cynical move to win the election. Point out that prices will go higher than they were before once he wins.
On the rest of Allen’s points, the answer is yes. However, making a lot of noise about how the deficit is financed by Central Bank of China and therefore puts us at the mercy of the Chinese can help.
Ohio governor rejects Diebold electronic voting machines because of security risks. I believe that cheating at the polls will lose Florida for us in November. However, Ohio comes back into play because the cheating machines are no longer on the table. Look for more about this in the weeks and months to come as the Republicans won’t let this go away. They will fight to the death for those machines. The machines make winning easy for the Republicans.
10. The highest number ever (60 percent) think the US should not attack another country unless the US is attacked first.
— I wonder if John Kerry is reading this…..
Colin
Sherman in Atlanta was a neccessary thing though.
What can the Democrats do about an October Surprise????? What should the Democrats do about an October Surprise????
Reliable reports say that the Pakistanis have been told to produce a major Al Qaeda event — a supposedly successful, large-scale attack or, better, a major capture — during the Democratic National Convention. How should Democrats respond?
How should Democrats respond to a Bush “achievement” prior to the September convention?
How should Democrats respond to a terrorist event in October?
[Not since the 1864 Democratic Convention have the Republicans needed “Sherman in Atlanta” more. And, these bastards are ruthless enough to stage it, for dramtic effect.]
What will Bush/Rove/Cheney do to win? This includes their “supporters” like Jeb and Grover.
Will they let a terrorist attack happen somewhere that is on a big enough scale to frighten people enough to flock to the incumbent?
Will they pull in markers from the oil industry to crash gas prices down to $1.20/gallon for the month before the election?
Will they work to disenfranchise voters for Kerry in key states and counties?
Will they flood the media with ads equating Kerryand Edwards with everything from homo sex fiends to the Blob? (from the 1950s movie).
Will they spend deficit financed pork-barrel money like there is no tomorrow but mostly in Republican districts to energize the base all the while preaching about “smaller government” and “this is the people’s money not the government’s money?” (huh?)
POP QUIZ: How many of these things have the actually done already? Add your own. It’s fun!
Next week’s Dem party convention in Boston will be crucial. A lot of voters disgruntled with “Shrub” will be paying close attention to Kerry / Edwards for the first time. *If* these voters like what they see and hear (=credible, alternative policies for 2005-08 presented by a credible presidential candidate), it ought to translate into a healthy “bounce” in the polls for John/John.
Unfortunately, the stakes are quite high. If Kerry is perceived to be a weak candidate, he won’t get another shot before the TV debates in September. And if that happens, I worry that Kerry will rapidly lose support much as Dukakis did in 1988. “Shrub” is also expected to unveil his plans for a second term around the time of the GOP convention in New York.
This could go either way, and nobody knows what the news from Iraq/Pakistan/Afghanistan will be. More Abu Ghraib-type blunders certainly will further erode the President’s ratings, but good news (capture Bin Laden and/or Zarqawi, for example) might yet restore some confidence in his “War on Terror”.
MARCU$
Bad news for BUSH that is!
Here’s some more bad news. A number of hunters in Florida–a traditionally Republican group–are disgusted with Bush’s envrionmental record and plan to vote against him And we all know how importaNT FLORIDA is! See this article on the issue in today’s Gainesville Sun: http://www.gainesvillesun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040718/LOCAL/207180317
Desperate people do desperate things. Millions of us are concerned that the voting process will be corrupted by the republicans to their advantage especially with the electronic voting machines and the optical scanning machines. It has happened in the past and the 2000 election shows that they will do anything to win. I’m so disappointed that the DNC isn’t taking a a more vocal stand because no matter what the polls say what are you going to do the day after the election when the Republicans still control the White Hous, the House and the Senate? I am beginning to wonder if there are Republican moles in the DLC controlling the Democratic party?
We cannot stop working no matter what the polls say. This is a refforandum on the most far right president in our history.