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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

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Democrats — Don’t be misled. The media is going to call Obama’s new Afghan strategy a “betrayal” of the Democratic base — but it’s not. It’s actually a decisive rejection of the Republican/Neo-Conservative strategy of the “Long War” By James Vega

When Obama presents his new strategy for Afghanistan in the next few days it is inevitable that many in the press will describe it as a profound betrayal of the Democratic “base”. Obama will face fierce criticism from many progressive and anti-war Democrats who will consider his decision to significantly increase the number of troops as representing a complete capitulation to the military and Republican neoconservatives.
This reaction is understandable, but it is actually profoundly wrong.
Read the entire memo here.


Military Strategy for Democrats: The key issue in Afghanistan isn’t the number of troops we send, it’s the mission that they’re given — and that’s why the military doctrine and strategy of “counterinsurgency” is totally inadequate as a guide.

By James Vega
The real decision America must face in regard to Afghanistan is not the precise number of troops that should be sent but rather the mission they are given to perform.
Read the entire memo here.


DCorps Analysis: GOP ‘Brand’ Tanking

A new ‘Public Polling Report’ by Democracy Corps, “Analysis of Public Polls Shows GOP Obstruction Damaging Republican Brand” darkens prospects for conservatives who were hoping to block health care reform and win back control of congress. According to the DCorps analysis,

…In the past week, both the AP and Gallup…have released surveys showing a significant decline in opposition to President Obama’s health care plan, with Gallup showing the plan favored by a 51 to 41 percent majority… Recent public polls show Americans weary of both the status quo in health care and Republican obstructionism: overwhelming majorities say Republicans lack ideas and put politics ahead of the nation’s needs. This extreme partisanship is contributing to the continued stagnant and unimpressive standing of the Republican brand and threatens to further isolate Republican leaders from the American political mainstream.

In addition to the AP and Gallup polls, the DCorps analysis also cited a range of recent polls spelling bad news for the Republicans regarding their obstruction of health care reform and in general. These include:

The Kaiser Family Foundation found that 57 percent of Americans say “it is more important than ever to take on health care reform now” versus 39 percent who says “we cannot afford to take on health care right now.”
A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that a 45 to 39 percent plurality think it would be better to “pass Obama’s health care plan” rather than not pass the plan and “keep the current system.”
A Democracy Corps survey conducted in early September finds 56 percent agreeing that Republicans are “More interested in partisan politics than solving the country’s problems.”
The same poll finds just 29 percent saying that Republicans have “new ideas for addressing the country’s problems,” a lower rating than when we last asked this question in 2005.
Quinnipiac finds just 29 percent think that Republicans are “making a good faith effort to cooperate” with Obama on health care, versus 59 percent who say they are not.
A CBS/New York Times survey finds that just 27 percent think Republican members of Congress are opposing Obama’s plans because they think they are “bad for the country” while 64 percent say they are doing it for “political reasons.”
CNN finds that 61 percent say Republicans are “being obstructionist for mostly political reasons” versus 35 percent who say they are being “constructive.”
A Washington Post/ABC survey finds 62 percent saying Republicans in Congress are “not making a good faith effort to cooperate” on health care, versus just 31 percent who say they are.
Pew finds that 62 percent of opponents of health care reform think that “policymakers who oppose the current proposals” should compromise with supporters while only 33 percent think they should try to block passage of legislation.
That Quinnipiac survey finds that just 25 percent approve of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job, while 64 percent disapprove.
The latest Democracy Corps survey finds just 30 percent with a favorable opinion the GOP while 44 have an unfavorable opinion. That -14 point net approval rating is nearly twice as bad as it was on Election Day in 2008. Moreover, the net 17-point favorability gap between the two parties is down only slightly from Election Day 2008 and is still substantially larger than when Democrats secured their first of two successive wave victories on Election Day in 2006.
A similar analysis of Pew data from Brendan Nylan at Pollster.com finds that “the Republicans are currently viewed more negatively than any minority party in the previous four midterms in terms of both net favorables and the difference in net favorables between parties.”
The early September Democracy Corps survey finds that just 35 percent think Republicans are “on your side,” one of the most important traits we measure. This is down 7 points from when we last asked it the summer before the wave election of 2006.
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that just 21 percent approve of the job Republicans are doing on health care while 65 percent disapprove.

The DCorps report includes revealing comments behind the numbers drawn from focus groups, and provides linked sources for all of the aforementioned data points, which the analysis says “show the Republican brand in tatters.”


Passing Health Reform to States Complicates Heated 2010 Gov Races

Larry J. Sabato has a new post up at his Crystal Ball website, “Statehouse Rock 2010” spotlighting what is shaping up to be the most competitive year for gubernatorial races in a long time. Sabato’s post focuses on the northeast and midwest states this week (south and west next week), but he has this to say about the Governors’ races next year:

2010 competitive action is in the statehouse races. A much higher proportion of contests for governor are clearly competitive than contests for Senate and House…All but a handful of governorships are moderately to highly competitive in 2010. Moreover, in comparing this midterm to those over the past two decades, it appears that a higher proportion of governorship races will be competitive in 2010 than in the most recent half-dozen midterm years…Twenty-one of these statehouses are currently held by Democrats, and 18 by Republicans. (In the 50 states as a whole, the count is 28 D, 22 R.)…There are 19 open governor’s races in 2010 without an incumbent running (plus one in Virginia in 2009), balanced almost evenly between the two parties (9 D, 10 R)….in most of the states, a real horserace is underway just for the party nominations, and it is impossible to handicap the general election until we know the party nominees.

In this week’s installment, Sabato has inside skinny on the N.E. and Midwest gubernatorial races, along with handy charts depicting the nation-wide red state-blue state breakdown in terms of governors and the electoral situation regarding governors of all the states.
As Ed Kilgore notes in his post below, delegating health care reform to the states could be inviting a world of headaches, all the more so in light of Sabato’s prediction of fiercely-fought competitive races for governorships across the nation. If gubernatorial candidates didn’t have enough to worry about, they may soon need to get up to speed on the myriad issues of health care reform they assumed would be resolved by congress.


New Health Reform Wrinkle: The Cantwell Compromise

The reporting about it in the major rags has been sketchy, to put it charitably. But Ryan Grim has a HuffPo post that outlines the basics of Sen. Maria Cantwell’s “quasi-public option” health reform amendment, just passed by the Senate Finance Committee. Grim says the Cantwell amendment (full text here) “moves the conservative panel as close as it will likely get to a public health insurance option” and he provides this synopsis:

The amendment creates a “federally funded, non-Medicaid, state plan which combines the innovation and quality of private sector competition with the purchasing power of the states,” according to an overview.
It would be available to people with incomes above Medicaid eligibility but below 200 percent of the federal poverty level — a very narrow window. However, Republicans fear — and progressives hope — that once the plan becomes law there will be pressure to expand it…The plan would not be free. It is based on Washington state’s Basic Health plan, which costs roughly 60 dollars a month, with the remainder of the premium subsidized by the state.
Private insurers would be eligible to participate in the plan, as would HMOs or other networks of health care providers…Cantwell says that her measure…would assure coverage of 75 percent of people who are currently uninsured.

Cantwell’s amendment did win the support of four of the five Dems who voted against stronger public option amendments, the exception being Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Grim notes that Sen. Snowe voted against it, which could be a problem down the road. The 12-11 margin suggests, for better or worse, that it may be a tweakable approach to a consensus.


So WHO should apologize?

Just in case you thought that, gee, maybe the GOP has a point about Rep. Alan Grayson owing them an apology for his remarks (see J.P. Green’s post below) about their bogus health care “plan,” Think Progress has a collection of some of their more intemperate ‘greatest hits’ bashing the Democratic health care reform proposals — none of which they have apologized for. Read the following, and then decide whether you think Rep. Grayson owes the Republicans any kind of apology:

– “Last week Democrats released a health care bill which essentially said to America’s seniors: Drop dead.” [Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL), 7/21/09] (video clip here)
– “They’re going to save money by rationing care, getting you in a long line. Places like Canada, United Kingdom, and Europe. People die when they’re in line.” [Rep. Steve King (R-IA), 7/15/09] – “The Republican plan will] make sure we bring down the cost of health care for all Americans and that ensures affordable access for all Americans and is pro-life because it will not put seniors in a position of being put to death by their government.” [Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC), 7/28/09] (video clip here)
– “That’s exactly what’s going on in Canada and Great Britain today…and a lot of people are going to die.” [Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA), 7/10/09] – “One in five people have to die because they went to socialized medicine! … I would hate to think that among five women, one of ‘em is gonna die because we go to socialized care.” [Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX), 7/15/09]

And hey, we don’t remember Saint Joan of the Tundra apologizing for her drivel about Democratic “death panels,” nor Rep. Michelle Bachman’s apology for calling for renewed witch hunts to ferret out ‘anti-American’ elected officials (video here). If the Republicans want to declare a moritorium on overheated rhetoric, let them set an example. Otherwise Dems should not feel guilty for using every media opportunity to educate the public about the Republicans’ lack of a health plan and the Democrats serious reforms.


Robert Creamer: Public Option Still Viable

it’s easy enough to find doomsayers who pronouce the public option a dead issue after the negative votes in the Senate Finance Committee this week. But Robert Creamer, author of Stand up Straight: How Progressive Can Win, has a potent antidote for the faithless in his HuffPo column on “Growing Momentum for Public Option.” According to Creamer:

First and foremost, voters’ support for a public health insurance option is as strong as ever…Last weekend’s New York Times poll showed that 65% of all voters support giving Americans the choice of a public option and only 26% oppose it.
More importantly, the public option is also popular in swing Congressional districts. The firm of Anzeloni Liszt just released the results of a poll it conducted in 91 Blue Dog, Rural Caucus and Frontline districts. The poll found that 54% of the voters in these battleground districts support the choice of a public option.
And the poll also found that the voters in these districts want reform and want it this year. The polling report says: Overall, 58% of voters believe the health care system is in need of major reform or a complete overhaul, and almost 59% are concerned that Congress will not take action on health care reform this year. The risks of inaction to Democrats in swing districts increases if voters perceive opposition stems from ties to the insurance industry, as 74% are concerned that the health insurance industry will have too much influence over reform.
Those kinds of polling results get the attention of Members of Congress.

Creamer goes on to argue that members of congress are beginning to face up to the fact that they have to produce reform that is actually affordable, if they want to get re-elected, and the public option is an essential element of any reform package that accomplishes this central objective. As Creamer concludes, “the odds are better by the day that before the holidays President Obama will sign a health insurance reform bill that for the first time provides Americans universal health insurance coverage — and includes the choice of a robust public option.”


TDS Co-Editor Ruy Teixeira Cites Uptick in Support for Obama on Health Reform

President Obama’s approval rating on health care has improved “across multiple polls” as a result of his September 9 speech, the unveiling of Sen. Baucus’s health care reform bill and “progressive pushback,” according to TDS Co-Editor Ruy Teixeira. In his latest ‘Public Opinion Snapshot’, Teixeira cites,

…a consistent pattern of increased support exists for Obama’s handling of health care and for the health care plans before Congress. This pattern can be seen in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, where Obama’s approval rating on health care increased by 4 points and support for health care legislation rose by 3 points.

Teixeira notes that an overwhelming majority – 89 percent — agreed that “requiring that health insurance companies cover people with pre-existing medical conditions” must be included in health care legislation (63 percent) or that they would prefer that it be included (26 percent). In addition, 63 percent of poll respondents felt either that “requiring that all but the smallest employers provide health coverage for their employees, or pay a percentage of their payroll to help fund coverage for the uninsured” should be part of reform legislation (26 percent), with another 37 percent saying they would prefer that it be included. In terms of the ‘public option,’ Teixeira adds,

And 53 percent felt either that “creating a public health care plan administered by the federal government that would compete directly with private health insurance companies” must be included in legislation (26 percent) or that they would prefer that it be included (27 percent).

And further,

In the same poll there is a very interesting finding that highlights how fed up people are with the current system. The public, by a 45-39 margin, said “it would be better to pass Barack Obama’s health care plan and make its changes to the health care system” rather than it would be better “to not pass this plan and keep the current health care system.”

Conservatives have done everything they can to kill health reform, but the tide is turning, and public is increasingly ready for change.


Hamsher: Two Dozen Blue Dogs Have Supported ‘Public Option’

Jane Hamsher’s Firedoglake post “24 Blue Dogs Have Said They Support a Public Option” offers at least some hope that a healthy percentage of conservative/moderate Democrats in congress are open to supporting a progressive health care bill, if other concerns are adequately addressed. Hamsher does a good job of explaining the expressions of support made by each of the 24 Blue Dog House members, and includes Nate Silver’s estimates of support/opposition for the public option in each of their districts. Hamsher adds:

Those who should be on the list but aren’t: Dennis Cardoza (73-20), John Tanner (56-35), Alan Boyd (52-38), John Barrow (51-41) , Joe Donnelly (56-35) and Heath Shuler (51-39), who all quite likely have majority district support for a public option. Many others have plurality district support. Because come 2010, they will all have to explain it to their constituents.

Hamsher challenges previous estimates that only a dozen Blue Dogs have expressed support for a public option, but warns, “The fact that a Blue Dog has supported a public option in the past does not mean that they will support one now — their principles tend to be lobbyist-flexible.” With Hamsher and other bloggers on their case, those who waffle are not likely to get a free ride.
Update: Thanks, Bernie for the spelling correction


Obama Approval Ratings in Key Swing States Suggest Ad-Buys

Bruce Drake, contibuting editor of Politics Daily‘s ‘Poll Watch,’ has an interesting post up, “Latest Round-Up of Obama Approval Rating by State.” Drake provides recent polling figures for the President’s approval in general in selected states, and also with respect to his health care proposals, where applicable. Of course, these numbers could change dramatically after a health care bill is enacted and comparing different polls is always an “apples and oranges” exercise. But they may of some interest in terms of where to invest in ads — particularly when we look at his swing state performance. According to Drake’s round-up, here are Obama’s most recent lead and lag margins in some key swing states, with presidential approval/disapproval (“strongly disapprove” + “somewhat disapprove”) figures first, followed by approval/disapproval margins for his health care proposals.

CO +3, -13; IA -1, na; MO -12, -19; NV -7, -7; NH 0, na; NJ +6, -11; NC -5, -12; OH -2, n.a.; VA -2, -5.

Several m.o.e.-range numbers there. Most of the figures come from Rasmussen polls, with the exceptions of Obama health care policy approval numbers for CO, NJ and NC, which come from Pew Research Center. Charles Franklin has noted a pro-McCain “house effect” at Rasmussen, which may translate into a pro-GOP edge in these numbers. And given the all-out GOP anti-Obama propaganda campaign underway and all of the confusion about different health care proposals, it appears the President is doing OK in these swing states, with the exception of MO, where Drake notes 48 percent of respondents “strongly disapprove” of his health care proposals. In CO, MO and NC, some more health care ads and stronger pro-reform publicity and education should be helpful.