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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

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Kerry Leads, Gains in Key Swing States After 3rd Debate

John Kerry leads George Bush among LV’s in: in FL +1; PA +6; OR +9 and WA +7. He trails Bush in: AR -5 and NC -3 (stat. tie), according to SurveyUSA Polls conducted 10/15-17.


Kerry Leads by 4 in New FL Poll

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-44 percent of Florida RV’s, according to a new Florida Insider Poll conducted 10/12-14 — a 7 point gain over the previous Insider poll taken just before the 3rd presidential debate.


Scripps Survey Research Center: Kerry Leads by 5%

John Kerry leads George Bush 50-45 percent of nation-wide RV’s according to a poll conducted 10/3-13 by the Scripps Survey Research Center at Ohio University.


Democracy Corps Poll: Kerry, Bush in Dead Heat

On the eve of the third presidential debate, John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 48 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to a new poll by Democracy Corps conducted 10/10-11.


Quinnipiac Poll: Kerry Leads by 4 in PA

John Kerry leads George Bush 46-42 percent of Pennsylvania RV’s, with 10 percent don’t know, according to a poll by Quinnipiac University conducted 10/9-11.


Kerry Leads by 9% in Oregon

Kerry leads Bush 53-44 percent of Oregon LV’s, with 4 percent for others, according to a SurveyUSA Poll for KATU-TV Portland conducted 10/9-11.


Bush Ahead By 2% in New ICR Poll

Bush leads Kerry 43.4-41.4 percent of nation-wide RV’s with 15.2 percent for others/undecided, according to a new poll by International Communications Research, conducted 10/9-11.


Kerry Leads in New Economist Poll

Kerry leads Bush 47-45 percent of nation-wide RV’s, with 1 percent for Nader, according to a Economist/YouGov Poll conducted 10/11-12,


Kerry Edges Bush in ABC News, Gallup Post-Debate Polls; Wins Independents Easily

John Kerry beat George Bush 44-41 percent of RV viewers of the 2nd presidential debate, with 13 percent undecided in an ABC News Poll. But Kerry beat Bush among self-identified independents 44-34 percent. (The respondents were self-identified 35 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans and 29 percent Independents.)
Kerry beat Bush 47-45 percent of RV debate-viewers in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. But Kerry beat Bush among self-identified independents 53-37 percent. (The respondents were self identified 38 percent Republicans, 32 percent Democrats and 30 percent Independents.)


WSJ/Zogby Poll: Kerry Ahead or Tied in All Battleground States

On the eve of the 2nd presidential debate, Senator John Kerry is ahead or in statistical tie with President Bush in all 16 “battleground states,” according to a new poll by Zogby Interactive, conducted 9/30 to 10/5 for the Wall St. Journal.
Kerry LV leads (%): AR 0.2; FL 0.4; IA 6.6; MI 9.7; MN 8.3; NV 1.0; NH 6.6; NM 11.4; OH 0.3; OR 10.1; PA 5.4; WA 9.9; and WI 2.5.
Bush LV leads (%): MO 2.2, TN 0.9 and WV 6.1.
According to the analysis of the Zogby Poll published in the Wall St. Journal, “Mr. Kerry holds leads outside the margin of error in 6 states…None of Mr. Bush’s leads are outside the margin.”