washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

J.P. Green

Political Strategy Notes

At Bloomberg, Michael C. Bender reports on what may be a crack the the GOP’s wall of voter suppression. GOP Rep. James Sensenbrenner criticizes the high court decision gutting the Voting Rights Act, arguing that the majority ignored the Act’s provision exempting state and local jurisdictions from oversight if they comply with anti-discrimination rules. The fact that jurisdictions covered by the Act failed to qualify for that provision “is evidence that the VRA’s extraordinary measures are still necessary,” said Sensenbrenner, 70, who was House Judiciary Committee chairman in 2006, when Congress reauthorized the law.
Michael Tomasky has the skinny on the tanking of the phony I.R.S. “scandal,” which got bumped off the headlines by the Trayvon Martin verdict. But the really big implosion of the GOP’s manufactured scandal starts today, when Russell George, the Treasury Department inspector general who produced the original report at Darrell Issa’s request returns for a proper grilling by Rep. Elijah Cummings, who has new evidence. Expect evasive sputtering.
The Fix’s Chris Cillizza notes that “the 112th Congress passed just 561 bills, the lowest number since they began keeping these stats way back in 1947,” with the usual false equivalency explanation for gridlock. How about an comparison showing which party’s members vote with the other party more in the house and senate votes? Don’t hold your breath waiting for those numbers.
It’s not just the Liz Cheney thing, notes John Whitesides in his Reuters.com post “Analysis: Republicans could see more bruising Senate primaries.”
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley have a fun post up at The Crystal Ball, “Rinse and Repeat: 10 classic political ads that 2014 candidates should (or shouldn’t) copy.”
Also at The Crystal Ball, Sean Trende, Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics, responds to a post by TDS co-founding editor Ruy Teixeira and Crystal Ball senior columnist Alan Abramowitz criticizing Trende’s argument that Republicans can offset demographic trends favoring Democrats by appealing to white voters who are increasingly disenchanted with Dems.
The presidents of three unions, the Teamsters, UFCW and UNITE-HERE have written to Senate Majority Leaders Reid and House Minority Leader Pelosi calling for specific fixes to the Affordable Care Act. They want to eliminate the provision that “creates an incentive for employers to keep employees’ work hours below 30 hours a week” and the provision that makes employees enrolled in non-profit health care plans ineligible for the subsidies grated those in for-profit company health plans. Of course the Republicans are spinning the letter to suggest unions want to repeal Obamacare. But the letter calls for “common-sense corrections that can be made within the existing statute.”
Don’t miss Wonkblog’s Ezra klein and Sarah Kliff excellent report on “Obama’s last campaign: Inside the White House plan to sell Obamacare.” Among the observations: “…the effort will have to go far beyond engineering turnout among key demographics. The administration needs to build more insurance marketplaces than they ever expected, and create an unprecedented IT infrastructure that lets the federal government’s computers seamlessly talk to the (often ancient) systems used in state Medicaid offices. They need to fend off repeal efforts from congressional Republicans — like Wednesday’s vote to delay the individual mandate — and somehow work with red-state bureaucracies that want to see Obamacare fail…”
Meanwhile, David Callahan writes at Demos ‘Policy Shop’ that “Freedom From 9-to-5: Obamacare a Boon to Entrepreneurs.”
Just what the U.S. Senate needs another arrogant theocrat.


Political Strategy Notes

Lest we forget, the “stand your ground” law which facilitated the dubious acquittal verdict in the Trayvon Martin case was an NRA and mostly Republican-sponsored law. As Howard Goodman reports for the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting, “As soon as the bill was signed into law in Florida, the NRA’s executive vice president, Wayne LaPierre, said the pro-gun organization would use the victory to promote the law everywhere…Within weeks, a proposed statute with almost the exact wording of the Florida law was adopted by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). That’s a conservative organization that pushes for laws favorable to its patrons, mainly scores of U.S. corporations…ALEC’s method is to hand cookie-cutter “model” bills to sympathetic state lawmakers — mostly conservative Republicans — who then sponsor them in their statehouses.”
Demography is Destiny to a great extent. But Ron Brownstein has a sobering warning for Dems in his National Journal post, “Danger Ahead for Democrats: The Passion Gap: A motivated Republican base could help the party win seats next year, despite long-term demographic trends.”
From Catalina Carnera’s USA Today article, “Poll: Voters blame GOP for gridlock in Washington” : “A new Quinnipiac University poll shows that 64% of voters say Republicans and Democrats are equally to blame for the gridlock…But when asked if the standstill occurs because of the GOP blocking President Obama or whether Obama lacks the skills to bring Congress together, 51% point fingers at Republicans. By comparison, 35% of voters say Obama “lacks the personal skills to convince leaders of Congress to work together.”
Former MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer passes on a run for the U.S. Senate, which is a blow for Dem hopes to hold their majority.
All of the Democrats problems in candidate recruitment notwithstanding, E. J. Dionne’s Sunday column highlights one area where Dems are in excellent shape — plenty of credible women leaders besides Hillary Clinton, who could make a strong run for president or veep.
At The Economist, Lexington offers some insights about “The war of the words: How Republicans and Democrats use language.” Among Lexington’s observations: “Republicans are also better, Democrats fear, at agreeing on a message and sticking to it. Frank Luntz, a Republican consultant, once said: “There’s a simple rule. You say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and you say it again, and then again and again and again and again, and about the time that you’re absolutely sick of saying it is about the time that your target audience has heard it for the first time.””
The editors of the NYT’s The Caucus have an updated statistical profile of the “Racial Makeup of Red and Blue America.”
Mark Sappenfield of The Monitor’s ‘DC Decoder’ blog explores a question of increasing interest to Dems, “Texas abortion uproar: Could backlash turn Lone Star State blue?” As Sappenfiled notes, “The demographics of the Lone Star State suggest irresistible change. The 2010 Census showed that 45 percent of Texans are white, 38 percent are Latino, and 11 percent are black, with other ethnic groups making up the remaining 6 percent. A decade before, the white-Latino split was 53 to 32 percent. White Texans, already no longer a majority, will soon no longer even be the plurality.” However, “10 to 15 percent of Texas Latinos are not citizens. The Latino population also trends much younger than the white population, meaning a larger share of Texas Latinos have not yet reached voting age.”
Paul Krugman posts on why “There Is No “True” Unemployment Rate” and discusses the uses of the ‘U3’ and ‘U6″ unemployment rates.
A new Gallup poll finds that “In U.S., More Relate to Democrats Than GOP on Immigration.” Asked “which political party’s policies on immigration and immigration reform come closer to your own?,” 48 percent chose the Democratic party, with 36 percent picking the Republican party. Further, 41 percent of non-Hispanic whites selected Dems, vs. 42 percent for Republicans. The figures for African Americans were 70 percent for Dems and 14 percent for Republicans, while Latinos chose Dems by a margin of 60-26.


Political Strategy Notes

George Wentworth, senior staff attorney for the National Employment Law Project has a perceptive Huffpo post, “How to Disappear the Unemployed (See North Carolina),” which explains the strategy behind a new Republican terminology scam. As Wentworth explains, “in an increasing number of states, the perceived “problem” is no longer “unemployment” — it’s the “unemployed.” And the most convenient and politically facile way to attack the unemployed is to attack unemployment insurance, the New Deal insurance program that provides modest income support to qualifying workers who lose their jobs through no fault of their own.” Wentworth notes that Republican Governor McCrory’s initiative “will cost the state roughly $700 million that would otherwise go to long-term unemployed workers and their families — and directly back into North Carolina’s economy.”
Chris Bowers of Daily Kos has an e-blast urging all progressives to “please join Daily Kos and CREDO by demanding that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Democrats pass meaningful filibuster reform that eliminates the filibuster for all presidential nominations, including judges. Click here to sign the petition.”
E. J. Dionne, Jr. challenges Republicans like William Kristol and Rich Lowry to demonstrate their new-found concern for low wages to support a minimum wage hike. “It’s heartwarming to know that the editors of the Weekly Standard and National Review are now worried about depressed wages. In truth, granting immigrants who are here illegally basic labor rights would have a positive effect on wages for all workers. But if Kristol and Lowry are really worried about low-paid workers, let their next literary collaboration be an endorsement of a $9 or $10 hourly minimum wage.”
Ed Kilgore’s Washington Monthly post, “Rand Paul and His Confederate Friends” unmasks the rancid core of Paul’s pitch: “As Jonathan Chait observed yesterday, at some point you have to figure that the chronic association of secessionists and racists with the Paul Revolution (and more generally with libertarianism and “constitutional conservatism”) exists for a reason; it’s not a coincidence or a figment of hostile imaginations.” Kilgore shares Chait’s quote: “The deep connection between the Pauls and the neo-Confederate movement doesn’t discredit their ideas, but it’s also not just an indiscretion. It’s a reflection of the fact that white supremacy is a much more important historical constituency for anti-government ideas than libertarians like to admit.”
At The National Journal, Beth Rheinhard’s “Bob McDonnell’s Growing Scandal Could Spill Over to Ken Cuccinelli” indicates that Dem candidate for VA Governor Terry McAuliffe may have found the edge he needs to defeat his GOP rival. As tea party activist Eric Odom, quoted in the post, puts it: “Right now it’s a case of a terrible optics, and it’s essentially handed a McAuliffe an arsenal of political ammunition. He probably has ten campaign ads against Cuccinelli lined up and ready to go.”
In his ‘The Conscience of a Liberal’ post, “Income, Race and Voting,” Paul Krugman mulls over some exit poll data and observes “Contrary to what some people keep saying, people with higher incomes, other things equal, tend to vote Republican. Cut through the noise and fog, and it is true that Democrats broadly want to redistribute income down, and Republicans want to redistribute income up — and on average, voters get that (which is why “libertarian populism” is hot air).”
Mark Z. Barabak’s L.A. Times article, “Texas Democrats feel a change in the wind” provides an informative update on the political and demographic transformation gaining momentum in the Lone Star state.
in his New York Times Opinionator post, “The Decline of Black Power in the South,” Thomas B. Edsall notes that “Where possible, Republican redistricting strategists have reduced the number of blacks in white Democratic legislative districts in order to render the incumbent vulnerable to Republican challenge. In other areas of the state, where it has not been not possible to “bleach” a district, Republicans have sharply increased the percentage of blacks to over 50 percent in order to encourage a successful black challenge to the white Democratic incumbent.”
The Nation has a worthy action widget, “Thank and Support moral Mondays” — a way progressives can support North Carolina activists in their protests against GOP voter suppression and right-wing extremism in that state.
Earth to Ann Coulter…ahh, never mind.


Political Strategy Notes

At last some action to at least weaken Mitch McConnell’s abusive veto power. In his NYT article, “Democrats Plan Challenge to G.O.P.’s Filibuster Use,” Jeremy T. Peters reports that “The rule change they would seek is intended to be limited. It would allow senators to continue to filibuster legislation and judges, but not appointments to federal agencies or cabinet posts.”
And McConnell’s re-election is by no means a sure thing, as Micah Cohen explains at FiveThirtyEight.com.
At The Fix Chris Cillizza explains why Dems are in serious need of young congressional candidates: “In 2011, the average age for a Democrat in the House/Senate was 60.8 years old while the average Republican was 56 years old.Compare that to ten years ago — the 107th Congress — when the average age was 55.7 for Democrats and 54.7 percent for Republicans.”
While Cillizza’s article sheds no light on which states are doing better or worse at recruiting younger congressional candidates, there are indications that some Democratic parties are in crisis. In Georgia, where Obama got 46.9 percent in 2012, for example, Jim Galloway reports in the Atlanta Journal Constitution that the state Democratic party had only $15K banked at the end of May, which “won’t quite buy you a new Hyundai Elantra.”
Also writing in the new York Times, Cornell University economics professor Robert H. Frank reports on the success the Germany has had with their no-nonsense commitment to infrastructure investment and the folly in postponing needed infrastructure repairs in the U.S.: “The Germans are investing in infrastructure not to provide short-term economic stimulus, but because those investments promise high returns. Yet their undeniable side effect has been to bolster employment substantially in the short run…The Germans didn’t become bogged down in debate over stimulus policy, and they didn’t explicitly portray their infrastructure push as stimulus. But that didn’t hamper their strategy’s remarkable effectiveness at putting people to work. The unemployment rate in Germany, at 5.3 percent and falling, is now substantially lower than in the United States, where it ticked up to 7.6 percent last month. (By contrast, in March 2007, before the financial crisis, the rate in Germany was 9.2 percent, about five percentage points higher than in the United States.).”
The GOP’s filibuster dictatorship in the Senate notwithstanding, Greg Sargent says it well at the Plum Line: “The problem isn’t generic “Washington gridlock.” It’s the House GOP.”
The Crystal Ball’s Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley see a GOP net gain in the Senate in 2014, but a takeover is a little more problematic. At this juncture they see Dems with 48 safe seats, vs. 47 for the GOP, with 5 toss-ups. If Brian Schweitzer runs in MT and Michelle Nunn runs in GA, the picture brightens considerably for Dems.
Texas Governor Rick Perry’s decision not to run for re-election in 2014 has kick-started buzz excitement for Democratic rising star Sen. Wendy Davis as a possible replacement. But Davis faces the possibility of stiff competition from San Antonio’s Democratic Mayor Julian Castro. Either way, The extremely well-financed Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott seems to have the GOP field all to himself, which gives any Democratic candidate a hard way to go, reports Sean Sullivan at The Fix.
TNR’s Nate Cohn explains why “Winning More White Voters Won’t Save the GOP.” Says Cohn: “Reversing the anti-GOP trend among non-southern white voters will probably require changes in messaging or policy, probably by moderating on both economic and cultural issues. The Electoral College encourages the GOP to make gains across a diverse swath of swing states, and they need to push back against the equally diverse Democratic attacks that have hobbled the GOP: the attacks on cultural issues that hurt Republicans around Denver, Washington, and Columbus; the depiction of the GOP as the party of the elite, which has hurt the GOP just about everywhere; and yes, the challenges immigration reform poses in Las Vegas, Denver, Orlando-Kissimmee, and Miami.”
Michael Tomasky flags a clever new Koch brothers television ad designed to whip up opposition to Obamacare. At the Daily Beast Tomasky argues that Dems need to get equally-creative to confront the GOP’s latest assaault on the Affordable Care Act. “The pro-reform side isn’t going to get very far with statistics. They need their own army of sympathetic mothers.” He cites the impassioned pro-ACA presentation of Stacy Lihn, mother of a toddler with congenital heart disease at the Democratic convention last year as an excellent template.


Don’t Mess with Texas…Women

As disheartening as was the Supreme Court ruling on voting rights, there was one bright spot in the news yesterday. You can read about it most anywhere, but HuffPo’s “Texas Abortion Bill Filibustered By State Senator Wendy Davis Is Dead” provides a well-described and vividly-illustrated account:

The Texas anti-abortion bill, which threatened to close nearly all of the abortion clinics in the state and prompted an 11-hour filibuster by state Sen. Wendy Davis (D), is dead, The Austin American-Statesman reported…Lawmakers had to vote on Senate Bill 5 before the special session’s end at 12 a.m. local time. However, protesters halted the proceedings 15 to 20 minutes before the roll call could be completed.
The crowd of demonstrators in the capitol cried “Shame! Shame!” when Davis’ filibuster was halted by Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who ruled that her discussion of mandatory ultrasound testing was off-topic. Then the protesters roared after state Sen. Leticia Van De Putte asked, “At what point must a female senator raise her hand or her voice to be recognized over her male colleagues?”
Their cries continued to echo inside the chamber — and over a livestream watched by thousands around the world — until after the midnight deadline passed.,,,A time stamp showing the vote completed after midnight was the deciding factor. “This will not become law,” Sen. John Whitmire (D), told The Austin American-Statesman.

Naturally the Republicans are all bent out of shape about it, and they will surely try again to press the case that clueless guys with bizarre understanding of sexual biology should have dominion over women’s bodies.
For now, however, stetsons off to the progressive women of Texas who refuse to be bullied. As Cecile Richards, president of Planned Parenthood, tweeted about the incident “The official vote was recorded at 12:03 a.m. Know why? Because of you. #StandWithWendy #SB5 #TXLege.” Howya liking the filibuster now, Republicans?


How Commentator Denial Enables Political Gridlock

In his Wonkblog post, “Ross Douthat gets Washington right, then very wrong,” Ezra Klein gets the New York Times columnist right. Douthat argued that the political establishment’s current focus on lower-priority concerns like gun control, immigration and climate change, when the public wants action on jobs and the economy, shows how out-of-touch ‘Washington’ is. Klein explains:

Much of the work here is done by bundling all the relevant players into a disappointing, elitist mass Douthat simply calls “Washington.” It’s “Washington” that’s failing. “Washington” that is not “readying, say, payroll tax relief for working-class families.” “Washington” where “we’re left with the peculiar spectacle of a political class responding to a period of destructive long-term unemployment with an agenda that threatens to help extend that crisis.”

Douthat departs from the “blame Washington” meme long enough to note that “the public’s non-priorities look like the entirety of the White House’s second-term agenda.” It’s a fairly transparent propaganda trick. Blame the entire political system for the paralyzing obstructionism of a faction in congress, while singling out the major player willing to compromise for the common good as somehow responsible for the failure to secure an agreement.
The political system in Washington — not the capitol itself — is broken in places, but not in ways that Douthat is willing to acknowledge. The abuse of the filibuster, for example, is a destructive systemic malady, which must be fixed before a working consensus can be secured. Yet, even this systemic impediment exists because of the Republican Party’s refusal to negotiate in good faith on the priority concerns of jobs and the economy, as well as nearly all other issues.
“Washington” has become a term that conflict-averse and pro-Republican commentators use to delude the public, and in some cases themselves, that GOP obstructionism is not the core problem. Opinion polls indicate that it’s not working all that well. Sure, millions of people parrot silly expressions like “Washington is out of touch.” But when specifically asked which party is more out of touch, in poll after poll more will say it’s the Republicans.
The better conservative columnists and commentators like Will, Brooks and Douthat, will occasionally fault the GOP for lame comments by its leaders and dumb tactical moves. But when it comes to assessing the GOP’s grand strategy of knee-jerk, full-tilt obstructionism to anything significant proposed by the President or Democrats, top conservative commentators shrug it off. They never defend the gridlock strategy directly, but their silence knowingly gives it a free pass. Their party — and America — would be better-served if they opened up the dialogue.


Political Strategy Notes

Start your day by reading John Blake’s “Veterans of forgotten voting war count the cost” at CNN.com. Then use it to evaluate the humanity of the Supreme Court majority’s decision on voting rights, expected later today.

If you thought that the GOP had reached rock bottom in dysfunctionality, read Eleanor Clift’s “The GOP’s Kamikazes Are Back” at The Daily Beast. If this keeps up Dems need only ask swing voter friends, “Do the Republicans really look like a party that can run the country? Really?”

Moyers & Co. are doing a great job of “Keeping an Eye on ALEC.”

At The Atlantic, Molly Ball gets on the “Can Democrats Win Back the Deep South?” story, and notes a growing role for new political groups: “…New groups such as South Forward and the Southern Project could make an impact — by providing resources and support to races and states that are often off the radar of the national Democratic Party. A third group, the Southern Progress Fund, also is gearing up to launch in the coming months…”

Micah Cohen’s NYT post “From Campaign War Room to Big-Data Broom” reports on the GOP’s efforts to match the data mining prowess of Team Obama. It does not sound like Dems have much to worry about just yet.

Catherine Hollander’s “Time Is Running Short for Big ‘Obamacare’ Push” At The National Journal outlines the challenge ahead for the Administration: “But Keith Nahigian, who helped design the Medicare Part D prescription-drug enrollment campaign during the Bush administration, thinks the White House and other pro-Obamacare groups are starting this push far too late…”If you don’t build partnerships, and you don’t have third-party validators and local trusted sources, you only have one-way communication of government telling people to take a personal health care decision, and right now there’s not a lot of trust of people [in] government, and also there’s a cost,” Nahigian said, referring to the fact that unlike voting for a candidate, individuals will be paying for insurance under the new law.”

Todd Lindberg argues at TNR that “The NSA Scandal Was Good for Obama.”

If you’re tired of the same ole, same ole social metrics being trotted out year after year, read “Governor O’Malley Leads in the Fast-Rising Movement around Measurement Issues” at Demos. A new indicator, the “Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)” is being embraced by Maryland, Oregon and Vermont, with other states expected to follow suit. It measures “valuing natural resources and ecosystem services is a staple of GPI, along with other “non-market” goods such as family care-work, volunteerism, and public investments in education, health, infrastructure, and scientific research.”

E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s “Boehner’s House implodes over flawed farm bill” says it plain about the Speaker and his minions: “…Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) exposed hypocrisy on the matter of government handouts by excoriating Republican House members who had benefited from farm subsidies but voted to cut food stamps…The collapse of the farm bill will generally be played as a political story about Boehner’s failure to rally his own right wing. That’s true as far as it goes and should remind everyone of the current House leadership’s inability to govern. But this is above all a story about morality: There is something profoundly wrong when a legislative majority is so eager to risk leaving so many Americans hungry. That’s what the bill would have done, and why defeating it was a moral imperative.”

J-school teachers should use this distorted screed as an example of cheesey reporting.


Political Strategy Notes

Now that the chicken littles have all had their say about the one outlier poll that had President Obama’s approval ratings down 8 points, along come top polling analysts Mark Blumenthal and Ariel Edwards-Levy to set the record straight at HuffPo: “A new Pew Research Center survey finds President Barack Obama’s job approval rating remains “fairly steady” despite recent controversies: “Currently, 49% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president while 43% disapprove. That is little changed from a month ago, before the NSA surveillance controversy and the revelations that the IRS targeted conservative groups for extra scrutiny.”
Tom Curry’s “Liberals brace for Supreme Court decision on voting rights” at NBC Politics considers possible strategies if the Supreme Court ruling on section 5 of the Voting Rights Act goes the wrong way.
What we call stuff matters in shaping public opinion. As Sandhya Somashekhar reports at Wonkblog: “According to the poll, overall favorability of the law jumps from 35 percent to 42 percent when the term “Obamacare” is used. That’s almost entirely due to the enthusiastic reception it gets from Democrats, 58 percent of whom responded favorably to “health reform law,” compared with 73 percent for “Obamacare.”…Independents in the poll reacted about the same to both descriptors (about a third responded favorably while around a half responded unfavorably). Among Republicans, 76 percent responded unfavorably to “the health reform law.” That number jumped to 86 percent when “Obamacare” was used.”
For the definitive down-to-cases update on the 2014 governors’ races, look no further than “Governors 2014: The Incumbent Avalanche” by Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley at the Crystal Ball.
Thomas B. Edsall’s ruminations on “Our Broken Social Contract” at the New York Times Opinionator are worth a read. But the “social disintegration, inequality and rising self-preoccupation” he cites is more a reflection of Republican party obstructionism than the Obama Administration’s “legacy.”
At CNN.com Wendy Weiser, director of the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, makes the case for digital modernization of voting in America: “We need to change the way we think about voter registration and move our system into the digital age. If citizens take the responsibility to register to vote, the government has the responsibility to ensure they can…We can also enable citizens to register online and stay registered if they move or change their address. This would add 50 million eligible Americans to the rolls, cost less and curb the potential for fraud.”
RMuse’s “Republicans Are Passing ALEC Written Laws Banning Paid Sick Leave” at PoliticusUSA has an update on the GOP’s assault on worker benefits and protections at the state and federal level.
Here’s an interesting email pitch from the cell phone service, Credo: “Just in 2012, working through the CREDO SuperPAC, we defeated five of the worst Tea Party Republicans in Congress. And we launched more than 500 campaigns on issues like marriage equality, the environment and human rights…AT&T and Verizon Wireless have given $1,047,500 and $179,600 respectively to House and Senate Tea Party Caucus members since 2009–including Representatives Michele Bachmann, Steve King and Allen West (whom the CREDO SuperPAC helped defeat in November)…”
R. J. Eskow’s “9 Ways the Right’s Ayn Randian Experiment Screws Over the Young” provides an antidote to the facile Libertarianism Sen. Rand Paul is hoping to sell to young voters.
I do hope the Republican party regains some sanity, at least enough to negotiate like grown-ups. But this is just… nuts.


Political Strategy Notes

As the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to announce its decision on section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, Ari Berman has a poignant post up at The Nation , “John Lewis’s Long Fight for Voting Rights.” Says Berman: “… It’s shocking that the Supreme Court appears to be leaning toward overturning the centerpiece of the country’s most important civil rights law… If the Court upholds Section 5, as it has in four prior opinions, Lewis’s legacy will be cemented. And if the Court eviscerates it, Lewis’s voice will be needed as never before.”
In other voter suppression news, Josh Israel reports at Think progress that “Colorado’s state ethics panel has ruled that Secretary of State Scott Gessler (R) violated state ethics laws and breached public trust for his own personal gain. Gessler, best known for his failed voter purge and his crusade against largely nonresistant voter fraud, received a fine for the violations.”
At least same-day voter registration is moving forward at the state level, explains Steven Carbo at Demos. Yet here too there is resistence: “Sadly, voting rights opponents are also seeing Same Day Registration’s potential, and are moving to end the reform in several SDR states. Last month, Montana lawmakers voted to put an SDR repeal question before the voters on the November 2014 ballot. In North Carolina, the conservative majority is championing a string of voter suppression measures that would eliminate Same Day Registration, impose a strict voter ID requirement, and shorten the state’s early voting periods.”
Here we have an interesting meditation on “What are ‘Liberals,’ What are ‘Progressives,’ and Why the Difference Matters.”
Mark Caputo reports at The Miami Herald why “Fla. Democrats see Gov. Rick Scott as easy target in 2014.” Caputo explains: “The most recent public polls, released in March, indicate Crist would soundly beat him and that Scott is viewed far less favorably than favorably. One survey, from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling showed that Scott would lose to Crist by 12 percentage points and to Sink by 6 points, but that he’d beat Rich by 6 percentage points.
At The Fix, Chris Cillizza reports on the intensification of the GOP’s internecine battles.
Alex Roarty’s “Will North Carolina Shape the Future of the Senate?” at The National Journal limns the challenge Dems face in holding Kay Hagan’s Senate seat — and the Senate majority: “The Republican Party’s hopes for a Senate majority will rise and fall on 2014 elections in seven red states where Democratic senators are running for reelection or retiring…Within this group (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia), one state stands apart. North Carolina is represented by freshman Kay Hagan, seeking reelection for the first time since her 2008 victory.”
GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham certainly has a way with words, as Phillip Ellito reports in his Talking Points Memo post: “Graham: GOP Is ‘In A Demographic Death Spiral.”
Georgetown poly sci proffesor Dan Hopkins addresses the question “Is it really the GOP’s anti-immigration stances that turn off Latinos?” at Wonkblog.
At The Atlantic Norm Ornstein explores “Why Can’t House GOP Leaders Stand Up to Radical Members of Their Party?” Ornstein observes: “Why have we privatized and subcontracted the lions’ share of our national security intelligence apparatus? Because mindless budget cuts, a long-standing zeal to privatize reflexively, along with multiyear pay freezes for all civilian government employees and other efforts to undercut and demoralize those who work for government, have made it nearly impossible for government security agencies to compete with the private sector for top-flight electrical engineers and computer scientists. So we have turned to the back door, relying more and more on less-secure private contractors. This is the consequence of moving from a commendable focus on lean, efficient, and functional government in areas where we need it to an unthinking hatred of all government that is transcendent in the new GOP, and unchallenged by those who know better.”


Labor and Dems Must ‘Ripen the Times’

Brad Plumer’s Wonkblog post, “Do private-sector unions still have a future in the U.S.?” addresses a question of enormous importance, not only for the union movement and the nation, but also for the Democratic Party. Plumer riffs on Rich Yeselson’s even wonkier essay, “Fortress Unionism” in the journal Democracy, and distills a few key points.
Regarding the Taft-Hartley Act’s effect on union power, Plumer notes: “Yeselson offers a slightly recast argument here, suggesting that the blizzard of new legal restrictions “bureaucratized labor unions,” by forcing them to lawyer up and “drain[ing] the energy and creativity out of the members and their rank-and-file leadership.”
Plumer notes Yeselson’s critique of Labor’s “creative campaigns to organize workers in fresh territory,” and explains:

Some of these campaigns were quite successful on a small scale — like SEIU’s “Justice for Janitors” push. But Yeselson, who worked on many of these efforts, argues that they simply haven’t been enough to stop labor’s overall decline. One reason, he notes, is that it’s simply much harder to organize on a large scale today. When the UAW organized its famous sit-down strike in GM’s Flint plant in 1937, there were 47,000 workers at stake. A single Wal-Mart store today might yield about 300 workers.

Plumer takes a look at labor organizing history in the U.S. and other developed nations and comes to a disturbing conclusion:

Organized labor tends to expand only at rare points in history, so unions should hunker down and wait for that moment to come along. Labor economist Richard Freeman has argued that labor unions in advanced nations tend to follow a similar pattern. They’ve only grown during a few rare “spurts” of social upheaval — World War I, the Depression, World War II. But the rest of the time, they usually wilt….
As such, Yeselson argues, it’s unlikely that incremental organizing pushes can break this long-standing pattern. Instead, he argues, unions should work to shore up their existing strengths: Bolster their locals; organize only where they’re already strong; invest in “alt-labor” campaigns for non-union workers. And then… they should wait for another one of these “spurts” to come along.
“Wait for the workers to say they’ve had enough,” Yeselson advises. “When they demand in vast numbers collective solutions to their problems, seize upon that energy and institutionalize it.” The big question, of course, is what that moment of social upheaval might look like — or whether anything like the worker unrest in the 1930s is even possible today.

Plumer adds that “certain changes to labor law could at least slow that inexorable erosion of union density — even if they can’t stop it entirely.” However, he adds that “Favorable labor law only passes when unions are already strong — and rarely happens otherwise. He cites Dems’ failure to pass card check in 2009 when they had big majorities, intimidated as they were by the filibuster. He concludes, “if the goal is to hope that big changes to labor law will save unions, that could be a very long wait.”
The future of the labor movement and the Democratic party are inextricably intertwined. When one is sick, the other suffers and neither will prosper unless both are in good health. That’s why unions must stay deeply involved in politics and the Democrats must push harder for labor reforms that can strengthen the ability of workers to organize their power into trade unions. The bleak, unacceptable alternative is continued gridlock.
I appreciate the data mining done by Yeselson, Plumer and all political and social science writers. There are important lessons we must learn in historical patterns. At the same time, however, let’s not allow history to make a hostage of hope. Sometimes a creative tweak can make a failed strategy viable.
Perhaps it’s premature to judge recent experimental labor organizing techniques a failure. If the ones that have been fully tried have failed thus far, then lesson learned. To the extent that they haven’t been fully explored, there may be some room for future successes. Surely there is always room for innovative organizing ideas and more creative forms of membership.
As for waiting for the most opportune moment to organize, certainly unions will be alert and move decisively when such a time ripens. But, like the savvy civil rights leader Dorothy Height once said, “When the times aren’t ripe, you have to ripen the times” — which is damn good advice for any progressive movement.