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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

J.P. Green

Dems Can Improve on McAuliffe’s Template by Addressing White Working-Class Economic Concerns

If you haven’t done so already, make Isaiah Poole’s “Winning Isn’t The Only Thing. It’s About Movement-Building” at The Campaign for America’s Future blog your required reading for the day. Poole packs several important observations about the Virginia governor’s election — and progressive politics in general — into his post.
First, although McAuliffe’s disciplined and well-organized campaign merits praise and emulation, the ‘dog that didn’t bark’ needs some attention. As Poole explains::

A major key to forging an enduring progressive majority is to connect the elements of the Obama coalition – young people, single women and people of color, the so-called “rising American electorate” – with white, working-class voters receptive to an economic populist message, what Rev. Jesse Jackson in his 1988 presidential bid called the “rainbow coalition.”
Simply put, McAuliffe did not complete the rainbow. His win, even though it was a decisive defeat of a tea party hero, doesn’t offer a template for rebuilding the electoral framework for progressive reform. Establishing that template and using it to dismantle the tea-party stranglehold on government is going to be the challenge of 2014 and beyond.

Poole points out that “What most voters saw of McAuliffe was that he was not Cuccinelli” and adds “McAuliffe looked a lot like the wheeling-dealing corporate wing of the Democratic Party, not a grassroots fighter against the power brokers of Wall Street and Washington.” Some might say that McAuliffe had the right formula for Virginia at this political moment, which is what was needed to win, however narrowly. But Poole continues,

Large swaths of voters were unimpressed. Exit polls show that McAuliffe lost male voters by three percentage points (45 percent to 48 percent for Cuccinelli). He won female voters by nine percentage points (51 percent vs. 42 percent for Cuccinelli), but he actually lost white female voters decisively (38 percent vs. 54 percent for Cuccinelli). Cuccinelli won voters with less than a four-year college education and voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year. He also won the lion’s share of the state’s rural counties.
Particularly striking is the exit poll finding that among voters who were most worried about the direction of the nation’s economy, Cuccinelli won handily, by a margin of 64 percent to 29 percent. McAuliffe simply did not present himself as a compelling choice for voters who feel left out in today’s economy.

Regarding the largest potential swing constituency, white working-class voters, Poole observes:

Coming up with a way to win the white working-class voting blocs where McAuliffe underperformed has been a preoccupation of Andrew Levison, a contributing editor at The Democratic Strategist and the author of “The White Working Class Today: Who They Are, How They Think and How Progressives Can Regain Their Support.” His core argument is that a candidate can be an unabashed progressive economic populist and still be competitive among restive working-class voters that have been lured into supporting tea-party candidates.
What Levison explicitly rejected in a recent interview is the model of so-called “Third Way” or “moderate” Democrats who borrow heavily from conservative policy positions in an effort to woo Republican support. “The centrists [in Congress] who claimed that they were representing their constituents when they were writing dirty tax deals on behalf of corporations, that’s not at all what I’m talking about,” he said. “You don’t have to do that to win white working-class voters. In fact, quite the contrary.”
What Levison envisions instead are economic populist candidates who are comfortable with the values of red-state and purple-state working-class voters and who can then earn the trust of those voters as they advance progressive prescriptions. What those candidates need as support are local institutions that can serve the same role that unions, Democratic Party organizations and some churches used to play when the Democratic Party was dominant in many of these districts until the 1980s – supplying what Levison called “a framework and interface through which people can see government at work” and “the speed bump that kept white working class people from falling into a conservative framework.”

Poole adds that “Polls show that a large percentage of white working-class voters and the rising American electorate share a common disdain for the fact that so much of the political system is rigged in favor of the wealthy and the powerful. They also understand in a visceral way how the middle class has fallen behind…” He notes that pollster Celinda Lake has identified several common concerns shared by the rising American electorate and red state voters, including “raising the minimum wage, requiring equal pay for equal work, and pushing for affordable child care, and paid family maternity and sick leave.”
As for conservative government-bashing, Poole distills a salient insight from Levison’s book:

Levison says progressives need to do a better job of giving people a way of grasping how government can be used as a tool to improve their economic condition. That, he argues, requires patience with people who are used to hearing that government is a remote, alien entity that hinders instead of helps, and should thus be pushed out of the way.
“If you’ve never encountered the Keynesian idea in an economic textbook, the idea that government spending stimulates the economy doesn’t sound plausible,” he said. “You have to have learned that framework in order to grasp the idea. … Once you understand that, it makes perfect sense. If you don’t, it sounds insane.”

Poole notes that Levison’s insights are reflected in the efforts of ‘Working America,’ which is building a grass-roots “membership of millions” who are participating in “face-to-face, one-voter-at-a-time movement-building.” He quotes Karen Nussbaum, who heads Working America:

“We talk to working-class moderates about good jobs and a just economy and part of the solution is that we need strength in numbers; join Working America so we can fight the corporate elites who are destroying our democracy, and two out of three people join,” Nussbaum said…”These are people who are not in the progressive movement, but they totally agree with us…”

Looking toward the future, Poole cautions “Democrats should not make the opposite mistake of believing that it is winning that matters, and the principles that candidates advance on their way to victory, and the coalitions they knit together, don’t matter.” Further, adds Poole:

What we really need to build is a new consensus based on an economic vision that is more positive and more powerful than tea-party anger – of full employment and economic security based on an economy that works for everyone, not just for a favored few. In that regard, the landslide election of Bill de Blasio in New York City – where white working-class voters have helped elect a series of Republicans, a Republican-turned-independent and center-right Democrats for the better part of the past four decades – is a more important beacon for the way forward than Virginia…Let’s be restrained with the congratulations over Tuesday’s elections until we see more evidence that we’re building a real “rainbow” progressive coalition.

Dems should savor our victories, however broad or limited in scope they may be. But we should also nurture a vision that extends beyond the next election, even decades ahead, so the inevitable setbacks will not discourage or deter the Democratic coalition.
Even as Dems congratulate McAuliffe for his well-run campaign, let’s not assume that it is a transferable template. Nor should we dismiss the possibility that he might have won by a larger margin by more assertively addressing the economic concerns of white working-class voters. Poole is right that building a progressive social movement that is well-rooted in all major constituencies, including the white working-class, is the key to creating a decent society for everyone. And that’s a strategy that should be replicated everywhere.


Political Strategy Notes

In “Black Voters, Not the ‘Gender Gap,’ Won Virginia for McAuliffe,” Zerlina Maxwell makes the point that “Women of color are the “gender gap.”
From The New York Times editorial on “Low Stress Voting.” “The Brennan Center for Justice recommends that New York and other states with outdated election schedules provide for a two-week voting period instead of cramming it all into one day. At least 32 states and the District of Columbia offer some form of early voting, and apparently voters like it a lot…The center’s survey found that early voting also means shorter lines, better performance by poll workers and more time to fix broken machines or other problems.”
Harold Meyerson considers “What Divides Democrats” — and what should unite Dems — at The American Prospect.
At last — a big presidential push for infrastructure investment. A Bloomberg poll found earlier this year that “Americans by 49 percent to 44 percent believe Obama’s proposals for government spending on infrastructure, education and alternative energy are more likely to create jobs than Republican calls to cut spending and taxes to build business confidence and spur employment.”
Ben Jacobs argues at The Daily Beast that the relatively good showing for Libertarian candidate Robertt Sarvis in the VA governor’s election just may signal trouble ahead for both parties –particularly in the south.
In his New York Times column, Bill Keller has a well-stated suggestion for President Obama’s message: “The message could be: “Divided government has brought us paralysis and crisis and made us a global laughingstock. Send me Democrats, and we’ll get things working again. Or at least, send me Republicans with a trace of pragmatism.”
In their National Journal article, “What Two Bellwether Counties Tell Us About the Republican Party’s Future,” by Josh Kraushaar, Peter Bell, Brian McGill and Stephanie Stamm the authors explain: “Our guys don’t understand [suburban] areas like Northern Virginia, suburban Philadelphia, areas that used to be our base. We’re getting smoked in these areas,” said former Republican congressman Tom Davis, who represented a Fairfax County-based House seat from 1992 to 2008. “Northern Virginia is a disaster for Republicans, these [statewide candidates] do not know how to run up here. They focus so hard on the social issues, cultural stuff.”
John Perr’s “The revenge of the insurance industry” at Daily Kos provides a revealing round-up of the ways some insurance companies have obstructed the implementation of the Affordable Care Act.
Lest we forget on this Veterans Day: in addition to repeatedly cutting budgets for American veterans services, remember this video clip showing how former Republican presidential nominee and Purple Heart vet Bob Dole was treated when he came to congress to support the U.N. Treaty on People with Disabilities:


Political Strategy Notes

The Republican anti-Obamacare message du jour seems to be that the President “lied” when he said everyone can keep their current insurance policy under the ACA, when it now appears that as many as fiver percent may not. Senator Mary Landrieu is introducing legislation to allow “anyone who is satisfied with their current insurance to retain it,” according to Richard Cowan’s Reuters report. Dems should freely admit that tweaks to the ACA will be needed, introduce corrective measures and force Republicans to address them. Some potential fixes, like Sen Manchin’s proposed one-year delay of the individual mandate are more problematic, but some kind of extension should be workable. In any case, the Republicans will oppose all reasonable compromises, and that could work in favor of Democratic candidates next year.
There are also incidents of excessive premium hikes under the ACA, as Ariana Eunjung Cha and Lena H. Sun report at the Washington Post. “There are definitely winners and losers,” explains Sabrina Corlette of Georgetown University’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms in the Post article. “The problem is that even if the majority are winners… they’re not the ones writing to their congressmen.” Many of the hikes will disappear once the on-line exchanges are functioning smoothly. But Dems will also have to formulate some adjustments to reduce unfair premium hikes experienced by middle-class consumers, while always underscoring the far-reaching benefits of the legislation. ‘Mend it, don’t end it’ remains a credible message point for Dems.
Robert Reich points out that health insurance companies are still bullish and “jubiliant” about the ACA, which after all, was the GOP alternative to single-payer. Reich notes a “deep irony to all this. Had Democrats stuck to the original Democratic vision and built comprehensive health insurance on Social Security and Medicare, it would have been cheaper, simpler and more widely accepted by the public. And Republicans would be hollering anyway.” A strategic consideration to think about for future battles.
NYT’s Nicholas Kristoff has a good post putting all of the Obamacare nitpicking in perspective, noting “…far more serious is the kind of catastrophe facing people like Richard Streeter, 47, a truck driver and recreational vehicle repairman in Eugene, Ore. His problem isn’t Obamacare, but a tumor in his colon that may kill him because Obamacare didn’t come quite soon enough.” Says Streeter’s doctor, quoted in Kristoff’s article: “I am tired of being the messenger of death,” said Dr. Gibson. “Sometimes it’s unavoidable. But when people come in who might have been saved if they could have afforded care early on, then to have to tell them that they have a potentially fatal illness — I’m very tired of that.” The salient message here is that, despite all of the start-up glitches, Obamacare will prevent many such tragedies in the future.
At Sabato’s Crystal Ball, managing editor Kyle Kondik explores “The Cost of Ted Cruz’s Rebellion.”
Sure, it’s a plus when your candidate is physically attractive. But people who vote for candidates because of their “healthy” looks, instead of their policies are probably not an easily-targeted demographic. Lots of members of congress don’t look all that healthy, and surely many of them beat healthier-looking candidates. And voters who chose candidates because of their looks likely divide their support more or less evenly between Dems and the GOP over time. It’s a nebulous, ‘washout’ demographic not worth worrying about.
Mayha Rhodan has an interesting Time Swampland post on the complications caused by Virginia’s restrictive early voting law. As Rhodan explains, “In Virginia, if you don’t have one of 15 possible excuses, you are not eligible for absentee voting. Excuses range from being in college to having a long commute or a religious obligation. Though the state has taken steps to make in-person absentee more accessible by extending absentee voting until Nov. 2, proponents of wide spread early voting say the fact that an excuse is needed is still too limiting. “Getting an absentee ballot isn’t that difficult for some segments of the population,” said Hope Amezquita, a staff attorney at the American Civil Liberties Union of Virginia. “It’s just there are 15 excuses that will allow a voter to be eligible to apply, but there are a lot of people whose excuses aren’t included.” While about 30% of voters voted early nationwide in 2008, for example, just 14% voted early in Virginia… In 32 states, voters can cast a ballot early by going to a designated early polling location (or mailing their ballot-in) between 45 days and a week before Election Day. In 27 states, any registered voter can cast an absentee ballot without an excuse, either in person or via the mail.”
AP’s Matt Sedensky reports that a new AP/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll “finds passionate opposition to any change in the way Social Security benefits are calculated that could result in smaller annual raises…The poll found that 62 percent of respondents expressed opposition to such a proposal, compared with 21 percent who supported it.” But the poll also “finds support among those 50 and older for raising the cap on earnings that are taxed to fund the Social Security program so higher-income workers pay more…Currently, the cap is $113,700, meaning those earning more do not pay Social Security taxes on wages above that threshold…The poll found that 61 percent of people favored raising the cap, compared with 25 percent opposing it.” Dems own all the high ground on this one.
…As if this could be otherwise, given the GOP’s extremist candidates in VA.


Political Strategy Notes

It’s early yet. But WaPo’s Chris Cilliizza asks “If Hillary Rodham Clinton passes in 2016, which Democrats run?” He calls out the second tier, Biden, Cuomo, O’Malley, Warren and some others, but overlooks van Hollen, McCaskill, Durbin and some other short-listers.
Cillizza also flags Stuart Rotherberg’s Roll Call post, “The Most Important Election of 2014,” which references Mitch McConnell’s struggle to survive the GOP senate primary in KY. Democratic candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes has to be wondering if the McCaskill strategy of providing support for )’Connell’s primary opponent could prove worthwhile.
At the Center for American Progress web pages, Eric Alterman’s “Think Again: 10 Years of False Equivalence and Still Going Strong” observes “Over and over, no matter what the issue–no matter how outlandish, illogical, or simply untrue the conservative argument has been–journalists create a sense of false equivalence between positions that rest on data and logic and those that don’t. To quote Cenk Uygur, “If CNN did sports reporting, every game would be a tie.”
Steven Elbow reports at The Capital Times that Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker appears vulnerable in 2014, according tot he latest poll by Wisconsin Public Radio and St. Norbert College. “Asked whether Walker deserved reelection were the gubernatorial election held today, 49 percent of respondents said no, while 46 percent said yes. Six percent were unsure.”
At Sabato’s Crystal Ball Larry J. Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley are calling it “A Democratic Tide in Virginia.” and the down-ballot fallout could be considerable.
Matt Pommer reports at GazetteXtra: “In a new book, Federal Judge Richard Posner said he made a mistake when he voted to uphold an Indiana law requiring a photo ID or other accepted means of identification in order to cast a ballot. Posner, who was appointed by President Reagan in 1981 and sits on the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago, is a widely respected jurist. His statements were stunning: Judges seldom admit they made a mistake.”
The bilious resignation of this charmer ought to make it a little harder for the more thoughtful conservatives in North Carolina to vote Republican, or admit they did.
At Salon.com, Jonathan Bernstein explains the “GOP’s Obamacare conspiracy: Sabotage from the inside.” And, boy, if Dems need a poster-boy for the GOP’s smug, mean-spirited vision of government, I nominate Rep. Joe Barton, depicted here in Evan Vucci’s caught-in-the-headlights AP photo.
In his post at The Nation, “Lou Reed’s Politics,” John Nichols, author of “The ‘S’ Word,” has a poignant epitaph for America’s great Punk rocker. Meanwhile, Dems can take heart from Reed’s lyric “You need a busload of faith to get by” in the video below, backed up by James Cotton and Buddy Guy.


Political Strategy Notes

Rebecca Kaplan reports at cbsnews,com that “a handful of Democrats are floating the idea of delaying the open enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act exchanges in order to allow users more time to sign up for insurance and avoid being hit by tax penalties.”
At Wonkblog, Sarah Kliff’s “Here’s how the White House just tweaked Obamacare” provides a good update on the Administration’s response.
If you’re bored with all of the Obamacare rollout bashing, read E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s WaPo column, “Don’t give up on the uninsured,” which observes: “Those seeking a model for how the law is supposed to operate should look to Kentucky. Gov. Steve Beshear , a Democrat in a red state, has embraced with evangelical fervor the cause of covering 640,000 uninsured Kentuckians. Check out the Web site — yes, a Web site — for regular updates on how things are going there…”We’re signing up people at the rate of a thousand a day,” Beshear said in a telephone interview. “It just shows the pent-up demand that’s out there.”
It’s not a good time for European heads of state not named Merkel. The left is rising in the U.K., but tanking in France.
According to a new CBS News poll conducted 10/18-21, “more Americans blame the Republicans in Congress than blame Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress for the partial government shutdown and the difficulties in reaching an agreement on the debt ceiling. Nearly half (46 percent) blame the Republicans in Congress, while just over a third (35 percent) blames Barack Obama and the Democrats.” Only 14 percent bought the false equivalence argument that both sides are equally to blame. Also, “While 31 percent of Americans approve of how the Democrats in Congress are doing their job, just 18 percent approve of how Republicans are doing theirs. Disapproval of Republicans in Congress has risen five percentage points since before the shutdown.”
The new Texas voter i.d. law, passed by state Republicans in the wake of the Supreme Court decision restricting the Voting Rights Act, targets women who use maiden names or hyphenated names, reports Steve Benen at msnbcnews.com. Benen quotes The Nation’s Ari Berman, who adds “According to a 2006 study by the Brennan Center for Justice, a third of all women have citizenship documents that do not match their current legal name.” It appears that the law is designed to hurt the candidacy of rising Democratic star Wendy Davis, who is running for Governor of Texas.
Arnie Pames reports at The Hill that President Obama is launching “a post-shutdown fund-raising blitz” to help Dems in 2014, including a series of eight speaking engagements.
Former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau argues at Politics Beast that “The Tea Party, Not Democrats or Republicans, Is the Problem.” Letting Republicans off the hook is a pretty long stretch, but Favreau does float an interesting idea: “In 2014, candidates of both parties should challenge their rivals to sign a No Shutdown Pledge and a No Default Pledge.”
This ‘toon from Mike Luckovich sums it up well.


Political Strategy Notes

Barbara Arnwine and Eleanor Smeal explain why “The war on voting is a war on women” at MSNBC.com: “According to the Brennan Center for Justice, 25% of eligible African-American voters and 16% of Hispanics do not have such an ID. In addition, 18% of people over the age of 65 do not have a current ID, and although most students have an ID card issued by their college or university, many do not have government issued-ID that would allow them to vote in these states…What is not commonly known, however, is that women are among those most affected by voter ID laws. In one survey, 66% of women voters had an ID that reflected their current name, according to the Brennan Center. The other 34% of women would have to present both a birth certificate and proof of marriage, divorce, or name change in order to vote, a task that is particularly onerous for elderly women and costly for poor women who may have to pay to access these records.”
Associated Press reports that “Va. removes 40K from voter rolls over Democrats’ objections.” In one affiidavit, “a preliminary review that found nearly 10 percent of the names given to him by the state for potential purging were, in fact, eligible voters,” according to AP.
From E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s WaPo column: “…I suggest that we allow ourselves a margin of hope in the wake of the decisive defeat of the extremists who closed down the government to accomplish absolutely nothing. It is a hope tempered by humility. Giant leaps ahead aren’t in the cards. But some important things changed for the better because of this battle….the most hopeful sign of all is that the shutdown reminded Americans that our country depends on an active, well-functioning government. This has emboldened Democrats to challenge the tea party’s sweeping anti-government bromides with an unapologetic case for the public sector.”
David Jarman at Daily Kos Elections makes the case for why we should “Blame gerrymandering, but blame ticket-splitting too.” As Jarman concludes, “If you see how increasingly sophisticated computer-aided gerrymandering, self-sorting, and declining ticket-splitting all interact and feed on each other, then you’re approaching a full-bodied theory on how polarization is increasing.”
At The New Republic, John B. Judis observes in “The Last Days of the GOP We could be witnessing the death throes of the Republican Party“: “There is a growing fear among Washington Republicans that the party, which has lost two national elections in a row, is headed for history’s dustbin. And I believe that they are right to worry…when the Republican Party becomes identified with the radical right, it will begin to lose ground even in districts that Republicans and polling experts now regard as safe. That happened earlier with the Christian Coalition, which enjoyed immense influence within the Republican Party until the Republican Party began to be identified with it… It took the Democrats over two decades to do undo the damage–to create a party coalition that united the leadership in Washington with the base and that was capable of winning national elections. The Republicans could be facing a similar split between their base and their Washington leadership, and it could cripple them not just in the 2014 and 2016 elections, but for decades to come.”
The American Prospect’s Paul Starr tries to get progressives back on the reform track in his post “Let’s Shut Down the Filibuster: Our 16-day long national nightmare is over. Now it’s time to think about reforms that will make the government more functional.” As Starr says, “…historically, the filibuster has hurt Democrats far more than it has helped them. Instead of perpetuating the minority’s ability to obstruct, the Senate’s Democrats should think mainly about laying the groundwork for a new era of reform. The cards are likely to come their way; the big question is how they are going to play their hand.”
From Paul Steinhauser’s CNN.com post “GOP, Boehner take shutdown hit in new CNN poll” : “According to the survey, 54% say it’s a bad thing that the GOP controls the House, up 11 points from last December, soon after the 2012 elections when the Republicans kept control of the chamber. Only 38% say it’s a good thing the GOP controls the House, a 13-point dive from the end of last year…the CNN/ORC International survey also indicates that more than six in 10 Americans say that Speaker of the House John Boehner should be replaced.”
According to Ashley Alman’s HuffPo report on a new PPP poll: “The survey, conducted by liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling and funded by MoveOn.org, is the third in a series of polls that indicate Democrats have a shot at taking back the House of Representatives in the 2014 election cycle…The results of the latest survey show that incumbent Republicans in 15 of the 25 districts polled trail generic Democratic candidates. When combined with the results of the previous surveys, the polls show that generic Democratic candidates lead in 37 of 61 GOP-held districts…When voters were informed their Republican candidate supported the government shutdown, 11 more districts flipped and one race became a tie.”
Good headline, bad rationale. Let’s call them “earned benefit programs.”


Political Strategy Notes – Shutdown of the Shutdown Edition

From James Hohmann’s Politico post, “Dem poll: Shutdown could hurt GOP in Senate races” discussing a new PPP poll: “In Georgia, voters opposed the shutdown nearly two to one, 61 percent to 31 percent. Democrat Michelle Nunn ties a generic Republican at 42 percent. After being told “her most likely opponents for next year supported the government shutdown,” Nunn opens a six-point lead over a generic Republican.”
In their CNN Politics post, “Republican Shutdown Pain May Boost Dems,” Dan Merica and Robert Yoon quote Stuart Rothenberg, editor of The Rothenberg Political Report: “”There is now a plausible case for the midterms being a plus for the Democrats, where I would never said that six months ago.” Rothenberg said the GOP is being perceived as “a chaotic, disorganized, confused party” and it is likely that their fundraising numbers will likely begin to slow in the coming months.”Big dollar donors, who are more pragmatic business types, are now worried about where the party is going,” he said. “For Democrats, this helps them for 2014 in recruitment, in fundraising and in overall morale.”
Standard & Poor says the GOP shutdown cost Americans $25 billion in GDP.
For a broader perspective on the cost Republican obstruction, check out “Gridlock Has Cost U.S. Billions, and the Meter Is Still Running” by Annie Lowery Nathaniel Popper and Nelson D. Schwartz at The New York Times. As the authors note, “A new report from Macroeconomic Advisers, prepared for the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, estimates the costs of the fiscal uncertainty of the last few years. Its model suggests that uncertainty since late 2009 has increased certain corporate borrowing costs by 0.38 percentage point; lowered economic growth over that period by 0.3 percent a year, costing at least $150 billion in lost output; and left this year’s unemployment rate higher by 0.6 percentage point. That translates to 900,000 jobs lost.”
Rep. Chris van Hollen outs the sneaky GOP rule change designed to keep the government shut down:

If you thought Texas Republicans might be feeling a little shame in the wake of the Cruz debacle, read Doktor Zoom’s take on the latest drivel from their Light Gov at Wonkette.
Despite the focus on a relatively small band of tea party house members, Politico’s Ginger Gibson points out that “62 percent of House Republicans oppose deal,” which would be a good stat to trot out in Democratic ads in all House elections.
To see how your Rep. voted, check out the House roll call vote right here. Here is the senate tally.
Harold Meyerson has an insightful column at WaPo, calling out the tea party Republicans for their Stalinist antics. Meyerson adds an apt description that could serve as a fitting eulogy for their failed offensive: “Today’s tea party-ized Republicans speak less for Wall Street or Main Street than they do for the seething resentments of white Southern backwaters and their geographically widespread but ideologically uniform ilk. Their theory of government, to the extent that they have one, derives from John C. Calhoun’s doctrine of nullification — that states in general and white minorities in particular should have the right to overturn federal law and impede majority rule. Like their predecessors in the Jim Crow South, today’s Republicans favor restricting minority voting rights if that is necessary to ensure victory at the polls…The tea party’s theory of government and the fear and loathing that many adherents harbor toward minorities find a truer expression in the Confederate flag than in the Stars and Stripes.”


Political Strategy Notes

Daily Kos’s David Nir reports on a dozen new MoveOn polls that show significant vulnerability of Republican incumbents in House races. His caveat: “…the problem for Democrats is that, for the most part, these seats are held by strong Republican campaigners who have done a good job of convincing voters of their moderation and who tend to raise money in bunches. That creates a vicious cycle whereby would-be Democratic candidates shy away from challenging these incumbents, thus making them look all the more invincible when the next election rolls around.”
At The Guardian, Bob Garfield’s “False equivalence: how ‘balance’ makes the media dangerously dumb: We’ve seen it in climate change reporting; we see it in shutdown coverage. Journalists should be unbiased, yes, but not brainless” observes: “As an institution, the American media seem to have decided that no superstition, stupidity, error in fact or Big Lie is too superstitious, stupid, wrong or evil to be disqualified from “balancing” an opposing … wadddyacallit? … fact. Because, otherwise, the truth might be cited as evidence of liberal bias…what is so difficult about calling bullshit on a lie?”
Media Matters staff has an excellent round-up of recent false equivalence “reporting” by talking heads on TV.
Kyle Trygstad’s Roll Call post “The Cheap Seats: Senate Majority Determined in Inexpensive States” reports that major ad battles are taking shape in states where ads are cheaper: “Cheap markets allow campaigns, national party committees and outside groups to afford significant ad buys earlier and stay on the air longer. But they also open up avenues for smaller independent groups whose less-robust war chests wouldn’t go nearly as far if they were forced to spend in major markets such as Chicago, Philadelphia or Washington, D.C…Democratic media consultant Philip de Vellis, whose firm Putnam Partners produced Heitkamp’s ads, says cheap markets and more ads allow campaigns to deliver a message over a series of spots — not cram everything into one “kitchen sink” attack ad.”
Dems have a “solid shot” at picking up the House seat being vacated by retiring FL Republican Bill Young, according to Hotline on Call’s Sarah Mimms.
Steve Benen’s “The electoral consequences of the shutdown” at MaddowBlog spotlights another GOP House seat ready for Democratic picking, NE-2, now held by Rep. Lee Terry. In his post, Benen also puts the shutdown drama in prudent political perspective: “Everything you’ve heard of late about 2014 is true. Polls show Republican support collapsing, but the midterm elections are still a year away, and it’s too early to make firm predictions…But this story out of Omaha offers an important reminder about the consequences of the Republican Party’s ongoing disaster — they haven’t ensured electoral setbacks next year, but they’ve certainly laid the groundwork for defeat.”
Looking towards 2014 elections, Democratic policy-makers would do well to check out “Working Longer: Older Americans’ Attitudes on Work and Retirement,” a recent poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The poll doesn’t include data on political party preferences of the respondents, but it does shed light on which policies this high-turnout constituency favors.
Democrats should read Joseph Stiglitz’s New York Times Opinionator column, “Inequality is a Choice” and then get focused on distilling some of his lucid observations into message points, including: “In America, nearly one in four children lives in poverty; in Spain and Greece, about one in six; in Australia, Britain and Canada, more than one in 10. None of this is inevitable. Some countries have made the choice to create more equitable economies: South Korea, where a half-century ago just one in 10 people attained a college degree, today has one of the world’s highest university completion rates.”
Richard Parker (not the tiger, the Harvard proff) has an amusing ain’t-gonna-happen-idea which lays bare the hypocrisy in tea party lunacy: “Suspend Obamacare and cut the budget–just as House Republicans have demanded–but here’s the compromise: do all the cutting in just the 80 or so congressional districts of the most ardent Tea Party members.”


GOP Poll Numbers Hit Meltdown Territory in New NBC/WSJ Survey

If you thought recent opinion polls were bad news for Republicans, dig this excerpt about the latest NBC/WSJ poll conducted October 7-9, from Ariel Edwards-Levy’s HuffPo post, “Poll: Republicans ‘Badly Damaged’ By Shutdown Battle“:

Americans blamed Republicans over President Barack Obama for the shutdown by a margin of 22 percentage points, with 53 percent saying the GOP deserved more blame, and 31 percent saying Obama did. Approval ratings for the Republican Party and the tea party were at 24 percent and 21 percent respectively — both record lows as measured by NBC/WSJ.

There’s no avoiding the conclusion that 22 percent is a pretty astounding blame gap. It does appear that the public is beginning to get it that the shutdown, the hardship it is already causing all across America and the threat of another retirement investments debacle is overwhelmingly due to Republican extremism and obstruction. There’s more:

Voters were 8 points more likely to say they’d prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress over a Republican-controlled Congress, a 5-point shift toward the Democrats since last month. Support for the new health care law, the touchstone of the government shutdown, rose a net 8 points from September, while the belief that government should do more to solve problems was up 8 points from June.

“That is an ideological boomerang,” said GOP Pollster Bill McInturff, “if there is a break, there is a break against the Republican position.” In addition, 70 percent of the respondents agreed that Republicans are “putting their own political agenda ahead of what is good for the country,” while about half said the same for the President. Further, reports Edwards-Levy:

WSJ/NBC pollsters said the survey showed some of the most dramatic shifts they had seen in decades in public attitudes toward the well-being of the country, the direction of the economy and wider political sentiment, according to the Journal.

The poll also revealed a 6 point increase in the percentage of respondents who rated their feelings toward Speaker John Boehner as “very negative” since the last time the poll asked the question in January. You have to wonder if that has anything to do with Boehner’s petulant interview on ABC’s ‘This Week’ last Sunday.


Political Strategy Notes

Harold Meyerson has a creative alternative for those 21 or so House Republicans who want to support a ‘clean CR,’ but fear being primaried by the tea party — declare themselves Independents. As Meyerson explains in his Washington Post column, “…To vote his beliefs and duck that challenge, all a center-right Republican has to do is declare himself an independent…This is hardly a course to be taken lightly. It entails the loss of congressional seniority and would cause rifts with friends and allies…There is no guarantee of reelection…But others have taken this course and survived — most recently, former senator Joseph Lieberman, who…reconfigured himself an independent and won reelection. Many of the House members tagged as supporters of a clean resolution, such as New York’s Peter King and Pennsylvania’s Charlie Dent, come from districts in the Northeast that aren’t as rabidly right as some in the Sunbelt. Others, such as Virginia’s Scott Rigell and Frank Wolf, come from districts with large numbers of federal employees, who almost surely are not entranced by the tea party’s anti-government jihad.”
At Facing South, Sue Sturgis reports that Art Pope, NC’s jr. Koch brother, is feeling some grass roots heat: “As Pope attempts to distance himself from controversial big-money politics, North Carolina activists continue to shine a spotlight on his outsized influence and what it has wrought.”
In a USA Today op-ed, Will Marshall presents an interesting idea: To seize the high ground, “…Democrats will need to abandon their ritual business-bashing, embrace the productive forces in U.S. society and honor companies that are investing in America’s future…The nation’s job drought is really an investment drought…Many companies are investing at home, and they deserve recognition. For the second year, the Progressive Policy Institute has ranked the top 25 companies making the biggest bets on America’s economic future. All told, these Investment Heroes spent nearly $150 billion last year on new plants, buildings and equipment.” Short of laws that protect jobs in the U.S., it’s an idea worth exploring, although the inclusion of Walmart among the “heros” is an eyebrow-raiser.
In his Politico post, “Poll: Terry McAuliffe increases his lead over Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia governor election,” Tal Kopan notes, “Virginia gubernatorial hopeful Terry McAuliffe has widened his lead over his Republican challenger Ken Cuccinelli in a new poll that puts him up 8 points…The Democrat led the Virginia attorney general 47 percent to 39 percent in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters out Thursday. In September, Quinnipiac found McAuliffe leading 44 percent to 41 percent.”
Turns out the latest Gallup poll I noted in Tuesday’s ‘notes’ post did have some data on approval ratings of the two parties, omitted though it was in Frank Newport’s report. According to Linda Feldmann’s Monitor summation, “The Republican Party is viewed favorably by only 28 percent of the American public, a 10-percentage-point drop in just the past month, according to the latest Gallup poll…It’s the lowest favorability number ever recorded for either party by Gallup, which began asking the question in 1992.” Democrats’ favorability also dropped in the last month, down four percentage points from 47 percent to 43 percent.”
John Dickerson’s “Are Moderate Republicans the Shutdown’s Biggest Hypocrites?” at Slate.com has a cautionary observation for Dems: “Right now, these members of the Clean Caucus have the best of all worlds. They can proclaim that they want to do the reasonable thing–which pleases their moderate voters–but never cast the vote that provokes the wrath of the party’s most active and punitive wing. This is how Boehner reads their maneuvers, and they can thank him for allowing them to have it both ways.”
But, as Steve Peoples explains at Salon.com, DCCC Chairman Rep. Steve Israel points out that the shutdown gives Dems a potent edge in the uopcomming 2014 midterm elections, with 68 competitive districts in play: “The longer the Republicans continue this reckless and irresponsibility … the weaker they become going into the 2014 cycle.”
If this doesn’t make Boehner sweat,nothing will: “Their frustration has grown so intense in recent days that several trade association officials warned in interviews on Wednesday that they were considering helping wage primary campaigns against Republican lawmakers who had worked to engineer the political standoff in Washington,” report Eric Lipton, Nicholas Confessore and Nelson D. Schwartz, in the New York Times.
At Daily Kos, the blogger ‘War on Error’ flags a series of revealing inter-active charts depicting the relationships between the Koch brothers’ and other wingnut foundations and PACs, lending great credence to Hillary Clinton’s warning about the “vast right-wing conspiracy.” Most disappointing revelation in the charts may be that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation supports ALEC. Open source software, anyone?