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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Instead of Counting on Scandals to Flip Trump Supporters, Dems Should Listen Better

Yesterday J. P. Green noted that sometimes an outsider perspective can help illuminate our politics. Venezuelan Economist Andres Miguel Rondon takes a crack at it in today’s Washington Post, and makes a compelling argument that, rather than hoping Trump will be undone by scandals, “To beat President Trump, you have to learn to think like his supporters.” As Rondon writes,

If you’re among the majority of Americans who oppose Trump, you can’t understand why. And it’s making you furious. I saw the same thing happen in my native Venezuela with the late Hugo Chávez, who ruled as precisely the sort of faux-populist strongman that Trump now loves to praise. Chávez’s political career (which only ended with his untimely death) seemed not only immune to scandal, but indeed to profit directly from it. Why? Because scandal is no threat to populism. Scandal sustains populism.

…I know how you feel. You are outraged. What did you ever do to these people to deserve their hate? What can possibly be going on? How can they, for example, make sense of so many former Goldman Sachs men in the Trump Cabinet? Weren’t the bankers supposed to be the enemy? Not to mention Russia? All your senses (and your Facebook friends) tell you that, with all this hypocrisy, justice demands that Trump be impeached, indeed it should have happened long ago. For your sake and for his supporters’ sake, too. Instead, it continues, and each day that goes by, it makes less sense to you. As Venezuelans used to tell one another: Chávez te tiene loco. Trump is making you crazy. Making you scramble for ways to make this end.

Rondon reviews the  litany of Trump’s scandals, from the Access Holywood tape to the recent Mueller indictments and concedes that Trump’s approval ratings have been driven down. Yet, noted Rondon, “in one November poll, only 7 percent of his supporters from last year said they’d vote differently.” Scandals may influence public opinion, but don’t expect much change among his supporters. Further, “If you want to fight Trump effectively, you have to learn to think like they do and give up altogether the prospect that scandal will one day undo him.”

Rondon argues, “his supporters are convinced that you are to blame. Until you can convince them otherwise, they will cheer him on. The name of the game is polarization, and the rookie mistake is to forget you are the enemy.” Trump’s supporters have been whittled down to hard-core ideologues and those who are willing to cut off their noses to spite your face.

Many of Trump’s supporters do harbor an intense hatred of liberals, who they perceive as elitist snobs. Indeed, some may be more driven by this animosity than diferences on policy. But it’s doubtful that they add up to 40+ percent of the electorate.

Although political illiteracy is not exclusive to Trump voters, there are a large number of low-information voters in Trump’s hard-core base. As political researchers Richard Fordling and Sanford Shram note in their Monkey Cage article, “‘Low information voters’ are a crucial part of Trump’s support“:

Our research finds that Trump has attracted a disproportionate (and unprecedented) number of “low-information voters” to his campaign. Furthermore, these voters are more likely to respond to emotional appeals — whether about the economy, immigration, Muslims, racial relations, sexism, and even hostility to the first African American U.S. president, Barack Obama. They are the ideal constituency for a candidate like Trump.

We define low-information voters as those who do not know certain basic facts about government and lack what psychologists call a “need for cognition.” Those with a high need for cognition have a positive attitude toward tasks that require reasoning and effortful thinking and are, therefore, more likely to invest the time and resources to do so when evaluating complex issues. Those with a low need for cognition, on the other hand, find little reward in the collection and evaluation of new information when it comes to problem solving and the consideration of competing issue positions. They are more likely to rely on cognitive shortcuts, such as “experts” or other opinion leaders, for cues.

Fording and Schram conclude that “a core part of his base is made up of low-information voters who appear more susceptible to Trump’s appeals based on race and religion and less prepared to challenge his misstatements and untruths.” It’s hard to credibly quantify this segment, and even harder to ennumerate another group of Trump’s base, who are high-information, low-compassion voters focused more on their portfolios than what may be good for America.

But the most relevant segment for Democrats is the percentage of Trump voters who are now open to voting for Democratic candidates. Some statistical indicators, including recent generic ballot trends, suggest that readiness to vote Democratic is making a dent, however small, among Trump’s suporters. Harry Enten reports that “the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent.with an 18-point advantage among registered voters in the generic congressional ballot question.” And It only takes a small change to make a big difference.

But it does no good to point out to persuadable Trump supporters that they are low-info or morally-challenged. Rondon advises, “before you try to persuade them that they are being racist, or worse, ignorant by believing in Trump, you should ask yourself: Will this help convince them that I am not their enemy? Because what can really win them over is not to prove that you are right. It is to show them you care. Only then will they believe what you say.”

Democrats just might get an edge with ‘persuadable’ Trump voters by ascertaining their fears, hopes and policy priorities. To do this credibly will require some targeted polling, followed by a real commitment to reach out to them with empathy, instead of the anger and condescension of facebook rants.

“So as the second year of Trump’s administration approaches, stop,” concludes  Rondon. “Take a deep breath. Let all the hatred circle from afar. Don’t let it into your echo chamber.”

Rondon may be overstating the uselessness of scandals in changing political opinion. Certainly, there is a distinction to be made between sex scandals and the smell of massive corruption and election-rigging emanating from the Trump Administration’s dealings with Putin and Russian oligarchs. But Dems would be wise to focus their criticism on Trump and Repubican leaders — not on their supporters.

7 comments on “Instead of Counting on Scandals to Flip Trump Supporters, Dems Should Listen Better

  1. Roscoe VanHorne on

    This article starts off with: “Dems Should Listen Better”
    This is an excellent idea…
    The article closes with: “Dems would be wise to focus their criticism on Trump and Repubican leaders — not on their supporters.”
    I see a problem here, this is a half baked idea…Of course, don’t their supporters (any abuela could tell you that) but even criticism of Republican leaders should not be the main focus. Criticism is more powerful when used surgically.
    In the last campaign the “Dems” spent too much time criticizing Trump and Republican leaders ( and their supporters) How’d that work out for you? Senator Sanders spent a lot of time listening. When he opened his mouth people listened to him
    There’s plenty of great criticism out there Dems needn’t waste their time piling on. The grand Wazoo puts his foot in his mouth almost daily. Let the press do their job. If the press asks about the other party/candidate give an honest answer but don’t waste you powder crowing about it. Focus on the American people and what they need, not what you think they want to hear.
    When you understand what they need come up with a concrete plan and stay focused on it. You don’t need focus groups or expensive consultants. Pay attention, the information is all there. Work hard to get their vote and they will turnout for you. And by the way, listen to and support the unions.

  2. Jack Olson on

    According to this column, “Democrats just might get an edge with ‘persuadable’ Trump voters by ascertaining their fears, hopes and policy priorities. To do this credibly will require some targeted polling, followed by a real commitment to reach out to them with empathy, instead of the anger and condescension of facebook rants.”

    The Democratic Party lost the House, the Senate, most state governorships and most state legislatures before Trump ran for President. Did this happen because the Democrats failed to show voters the empathy the column says they need to show them now?

  3. Polly MacDavid on

    Forget about Trump supporters. They’re nasty, vile people. They are NOT going to change. Trying to get them to change is like a woman in love with an abuser. WALK AWAY ALREADY! These people are not worth it.

    Democrats should try to get people who are DEMOCRATS. Who are on the Democratic side of things. Who want Medicare-for-all, an infrastructure plan, aid for people buried under student debt, etc. Get Progressive about things! Forget about people who are not interested in the Democratic agenda.

  4. Garry on

    Sorry, but now that we are admittedly down to the core supporters, the ones Trump himself said about that he could shoot someone of National TV in Times Square, and they would still support him. Hell no, they deserve my disdain and disgust and I will continue to pile it on.

    We need to focus on registering voters, helping people get voter ID, filling out the paperwork for reinstatement of their voting rights, etc etc. Then we need to focus on turning out the voters and bringing the millennial’s into the Democratic Party for good.

    In order to do that we have to stop running Ex-Republicans and DINO’s and focus on the core issues which made this Party great like SS, Medicare, Medicaid, Civil Rights, and economic justice. Then we will win in a big way and not just as the pendulum swings.


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