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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Month: September 2012

Kilgore: Romney Campaign A.D.D. Puts Strategy on Hold

As the Romney campaign struggles to get back on message (i.e. liberate the mighty jobs creators with high end tax cuts and oodles of de-reg) following Mitt’s Middle East meltdown, Ed Kilgore’s “Still More Laser-like Focus on Jobs” at The Washington Monthly has some fun with the GOP ticket’s attention deficit disorder, noting:

So yesterday on the presidential campaign trail we saw the econo-manic campaign of the business genius Mitt Romney do two basic things: (1) sourly reject with nineteenth-century cliches a step by the Federal Reserve Board that had markets here and around the world leaping like happy puppies; and (2) reiterate even more loudly than before the contention that only the manly-man-ness of Mitt Romney can keep Americans safe.
…No mention of any details about those “bold, pro-growth policies,” although the upper-end tax cuts that is the lodestar of his and his party’s economic philosophy would “create wealth” all right, for those who are already wealthy. But it’s the ancient gold-bug “printing money” denunciation of monetary stimulus that’s most striking, reflecting a world view in which high interest rates are considered a good thing and all seven deadly sins are inflation. Not exactly the hallmarks of a campaign looking high or low for ways to boost jobs.

Kilgore adds that “the Romney campaign is so locked down on tactical day-to-day maneuvering that it’s lost sight of any coherent strategy or rationale-for-candidacy, as the days quickly pass.” Read the rest of Kilgore’s post right here.


PA Coalition Mobilizing to Resist Voter Suppression by GOP

Abby Rapoport’s “Defenders of the Vote” in The American Prospect provides an encouraging look at the popular uprising against Republican voter suppression in Pennsylvania. As Rapoport sets the scene:

…In March, the state became one of 11 whose Republican majorities have passed voter-ID laws so restrictive they’ve raised worries about disenfranchisement. Pennsylvania, which makes the IDs unusually difficult to attain, could end up disqualifying more voters in November than any other.
…In July, the secretary’s office revealed numbers that were dramatically higher: More than 750,000, or 9 percent of registered voters, have no photo IDs from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT), the most common and accepted form of necessary identification. While nobody knows the actual number, independent studies have yielded estimates of more than a million voters.
…In Philadelphia alone, 180,000 registered voters lack a PennDOT ID. At least another 150,000 have IDs that will, by November 6, be more than a year past their expiration dates–and therefore unacceptable. It all adds up to more than 30 percent of the city’s voters.
…In case anyone believed that Republicans were moved to pass the law to protect the “sanctity of elections,” as they insist, Pennsylvania’s House majority leader, Mike Turzai, let the truth be known in June. Turzai boasted to a GOP state gathering that voter ID would “allow Governor Romney to win the state.”

But Pennsylvania activists are setting the standard for organized resistance to Republican voter suppression, as Rapoport writes:

Welcome to the world of the Pennsylvania Voter ID Coalition, made up of 140 organizations–churches, labor unions, civic groups–which began training volunteers in July. The group’s job is to let voters know that, thanks to a law passed in March, they will have to carry a government-issued picture ID to the polls to ensure that their vote counts. The coalition will also help voters who lack the proper ID to acquire one–a process that is, in some cases, time-consuming and complicated.
Most of the controversy over the law has focused on its political impact: Will it give Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney an edge in Pennsylvania, since the law overwhelmingly affects African Americans, students, the elderly, and low-income voters who mostly vote Democratic?
But the coalition, which prominently plasters “Non-Partisan” on banners all over the office, is concerned with something larger. “The greatest fear would be that people are disenfranchised, become discouraged, throw their hands up and say, ‘There’s nothing I can do about this, voting doesn’t matter anyways,'” says lead organizer Joe Certaine, a prominent voting-rights activist and the former managing director of Philadelphia, the city’s second-most powerful office.

Rapoport paints a vivid picture of the resistance coalition’s voter i.d. training session, which reveals the obstacles being thrown up to discourage voters and their determination to over come them. Yet, as Rapoport concludes, “No matter how many Pennsylvanians the Voter ID Coalition manages to help, Election Day 2012 could still be a nightmare unless the courts halt the law’s implementation.”
As for the likely ruling on the voter i.d. law by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, David Gambacorta reports at philly.com,

Justices Seamus McCaffery and Debra McCloskey Todd, both Democrats, wondered aloud why the law couldn’t be implemented over several years, instead of just before the election.
Justice Michael Eakin, a Republican, underscored the value of the law, noting that fraud has existed since George Washington.
So . . . now what?
* Voter ID is probably here to stay. The justices, who are split evenly – three Democrats, three Republicans – are expected to issue a ruling soon.
“I’m inclined to think it’s an uphill climb to get an injunction,” said Temple University law professor Mark Rahdert. “Once a lower court rules against the challengers, it sets all the machinery of justice against getting that decision overturned.”
Zack Stalberg, president of the good-government group the Committee of Seventy, said that Simpson’s ruling, coupled with the Supreme Court’s even political split, “adds up to there being a good chance that it will be upheld.”
Unless, of course . . .
* Something unexpected happens. “We have turned back similar laws in multiple states across this country . . . from Wisconsin to Minnesota to North Carolina to Texas,” NAACP President Benjamin Todd Jealous said after Thursday’s hearing. “We’re cautiously optimistic.”
Drexel University political science professor Bill Rosenberg said it’s possible that the case could “get taken into the federal court system, away from the politics of Pennsylvania.”

With that uncertain prospect looming over the election, the outcome of the presidential election in PA — and possibly the nation — may depend on the sustained commitment of the Pennsylvania Voter I.D. Coalition.


Latest News from the Alternative Universe Next Door

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Kilgore: GOP Spills the Whine Re Romney’s Gaffes and ‘Liberal Media Bias’

TDS Managing Editor Ed Kilgore posts at The Washington Monthly on “The Endless Whine,” referring to the latest Republican orgy of self-pity “about the vicious treatment of poor Mitt Romney by the vicious, hateful, Obama-loving media.” Kilgore provides a couple of examples, then adds,

I’ve never completely understood the persecution complex of American conservative gabbers. They are, after all, aligned with the wealthiest and most powerful people in the world. They have their own large and very well-funded “shadow media” and public relations complex, even as the hated MSM constantly seeks to buy off criticism by conspicuously hiring conservative “voices.” They totally dominate one entire medium, radio, and dominate all media in many parts of the country. I get the distinct impression that conservative media types have a lot easier time supporting themselves than folks on the left…But to hear them, they are perpetually shunned and persecuted for their brave and selfless advocacy of the status quo and the status quo ante.

The GOP whinefest will undoubtedly continue ad nauseum. Meanwhile you can read the rest of Kilgore’s post right here.


Why Rebuilding Unions Must be a Democratic Priority

Thumbnail image for Union Chart.jpg

In their article, “Unions Are Necessary to Rebuilding Our Middle Class,” at the Center for American Progress Action Fund, David Madland and Nick Bunker write,

Over the past several decades, the decline in the unionization rate tracks almost perfectly with the decline in the share of income going to the middle class…According to our previous research, a 10 percentage point increase in union membership would translate into an extra $1,479 per year for the average middle-class household, whether or not that household includes union members–about the same effect as boosting college graduation rates by the same margin.

The next time Democrats get a working congressional majority, restoring the American labor movement as a force for economic security should be considered an imperative priority, not only for the good of American workers, but also for the future of the Democratic party.


Political Strategy Notes

Ben Schreckinger reports in his post “Democrats Widen Enthusiasm Gap” at The National Journal that “Democrats are now significantly more engaged by the presidential race and view it more favorably than Republicans, according to a Pew survey published on Wednesday…Two-thirds of Democrats find the campaign “interesting” compared with only half of Republicans, while 68 percent of Dems find it “informative,” compared with just under half of Republicans, according to survey, conducted over the weekend by the the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.”
Nate Silver has a lot more to say about the “decline of the enthusiasm gap” at FiveThirty Eight, which leads him to conclude that “for now, our forecast has stabilized a bit, with Mr. Obama holding in the range of about a four-point lead in the popular vote and an 80 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.”
If you thought that RNC Chairman Reince Priebus might want to lay a little low for a while and let the wake of his hideously bungled convention quietly subside, you would be quite wrong. David Atkins cuts Priebus and his party no slack at Hullabaloo, regarding the RNC chair’s inane tweet “Obama sympathizes with attackers in Egypt. Sad and pathetic.” Says Atkins: “That’s the actual, nominal head of the Republican Party speaking, not some radio shock jock…But this this is who they are, and what the official Republican discourse has been reduced to. It’s time the press started reporting the callous, lying extremism of the mainstream Republican Party for what it is.”
The Boston Globe piles on in today’s editorial “Romney’s comments raise doubts about his foreign-policy savvy,” as did The Washington Post editorial “Mr. Romney’s rhetoric on embassy attacks is a discredit to his campaign.”
In keeping with Romney’s dazzling display of diplomatic ineptitude, note that Russian President Vladimir Putin has thanked the GOP nominee for his myopic comment that Russia is our “number one geopolitical foe.” As Kirit Radia reports at abcnews.com’s ‘OTUS’ blog, Putin said, “I’m grateful to him (Romney) for formulating his stance so clearly because he has once again proven the correctness of our approach to missile defense problems,” Putin told reporters, according to the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.”
Here’s some really great stats for the Obama campaign, from The New York Times editorial “Fewer Uninsured People“: “The Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that the number of people without health coverage fell to 48.6 million in 2011, or 15.7 percent of the population, down from 49.9 million, or 16.3 percent of the population, in 2010. Health experts attributed a big chunk of the drop to a provision in the health care reform law that allows children to remain on their parents’ policies until age 26. Some three million young adults took advantage of that provision, other surveys show.”
Add to that a new government report that the Affordable Care Act has saved health care consumers an estimated $2.1 billion in premiums, as Allison Terry reports at The Monitor..
Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball takes a sneak peek at an article taking an overview of 13 current political forecasting models in PS: Political Science & Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association. Sabato’s summation: “…They vary widely, with eight of the 13 showing victory for President Obama and five seeing Mitt Romney as the next president. The chances of an Obama plurality range from a mere 10% to a definitive 88%. For whatever it is worth, the average of the models’ projected vote for President Obama (of the two-party total, excluding third-party and independent candidates) is 50.2% — a tiny advantage for Obama, but hardly ironclad.”
Lots of buzz about a new study of facebook as a GOTV tool. As John Markoff reports in the New York Times, “The study, published online on Wednesday by the journal Nature, suggests that a special “get out the vote” message, showing each user pictures of friends who said they had already voted, generated 340,000 additional votes nationwide — whether for Democrats or Republicans, the researchers could not determine. ”
In a more partisan vein, GOP-friendly consultant Vincent Harris reports at Campaigns & Elections on how Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ted Cruz used social media in his upset win of his party’s primary in Texas. Harris explains: “Most importantly, digital was baked into all aspects of the campaign from communications to political fieldwork to polling….Ted announced his candidacy for Senate on a conference call with conservative bloggers. Texas has a large network of active conservative bloggers and giving access to them was important to promoting Ted’s conservative message and helping generate buzz about his candidacy among the party base. Ted met with bloggers in person and via phone often, and the campaign created a robust blogger action center encouraging bloggers to post supportive widgets, and created a segmented email list to update bloggers from.” Dems take note.


Romney’s Blundering ‘Diplomacy’ Amplified — Again

The reviews are already coming in regarding Romney’s ill-considered, shoot-from-the-hip response to the tragic attacks in Egypt and Libya, and it ain’t pretty. For a little taste, read Jack Mirkinson’s HuffPo post, “Mitt Romney Response To Libya, Egypt Attacks Called ‘Irresponsible,’ ‘Craven,’ ‘Ham-Handed,” in which he observes:

The Romney campaign drew fire on Wednesday morning for issuing a blistering statement condemning the American embassy in Egypt for speaking against an incendiary anti-Muslim film, even though the embassy made the statement before any attacks had taken place. NBC’s Chuck Todd, for instance, called the statement “irresponsible” and a “bad mistake.” ABC’s Jake Tapper said that Romney’s attack “does not stand up to simple chronology.”
National Journal’s Ron Fournier called Romney’s actions “ham-handed” and “inaccurate.”
Conservative pundit Erick Ericson, while disagreeing with Todd’s response, also warned Romney to be “cautious.”
Despite that criticism, Romney continued this line of attack in an appearance on Wednesday morning, saying that the White House had made a “severe miscalculation.”
This drew a fierce [tweet] response from analyst Mark Halperin: “Unless Mitt has gamed crisis out in some manner completely invisible to Gang of 500, doubling down=most craven+ill-advised move of ’12”

Even Ice Kween Peggy Noonan weighed in with a chilly scold, noting “I don’t feel that Mr. Romney has been doing himself any favors in the past few hours…Sometimes when really bad things happen, when hot things happen, cool words or no words is the way to go.”
At WaPo, Chirs Cillizza adds at ‘The Fix’: “Romney’s approach hands the Obama team an opening to cast the challenger as not ready for the job, someone who jumps to conclusions before all the facts are known. And, at least at the moment, that appears to be the stronger (political) argument”
Romney’s comments didn’t do much to encourage GOP congressional leaders to defend him, as Politico’s Scott Wong reports in his post, “Hill GOP leaves Romney out on limb on Libya” and Alex Seitz-Wald explains in “GOP leaves Mitt hanging ” at Salon.com.
Slate.com’s Fred Kaplan may have summed up Romney’s blundering “diplomacy” best in commenting:

…Imagine if Romney had called President Obama, asked how he could be of assistance in this time of crisis, offered to appear at his side at a press conference to demonstrate that, when American lives are at risk, politics stop at the water’s edge–and then had his staff put out the word that he’d done these things, which would have made him look noble and might have made Obama look like the petty one if he’d waved away these offers.
But none of this is in Romney. He imagined a chink in Obama’s armor, an opening for a political assault on the president’s strength and leadership, and so he dashed to the barricades without a moment of reflection, a nod to propriety, or a smidgen of good strategy.

If the reception Romney is getting across the political spectrum continues in similar vein, he may soon wish he was back in London during the Olympics, getting dissed by the Prime Minister, the Queen and pretty much every bloke from the East End to Notting Hill.


Kilgore: Evidence is Thin That GOP Ad Deluge Will be Game-Changer

At The Washington Monthly, TDS Managing Editor Ed Kilgore flags and comments on Nate Cohn’s “must-read” New Republic article “Why Romney’s Money Advantage is No Game-Changer,” noting:
…You can expect Team Mitt’s closing ad barrage to be even more negative and mendacious than it’s already been. Other than maybe a loud ‘n’ proud defense of the Ryan Budget that would lock the slippery Mitt into a clear post-election agenda (which pretty clearly ain’t happening), the GOP base most wants a level of anti-Obama savagery that matches their own feelings. And it may be the only course of action with a chance of dislodging an unusually high number of undecided voters. Get ready for some Hateball.

A teaser from Cohn’s post:

There’s no way to be sure whether Obama will benefit from superior turnout, let alone whether it would overwhelm Romney’s advantage on the air. But there’s not much cause to presume that Romney’s air campaign will pulverize Obama into defeat, either. The historical effects of ad spending are relatively meager, views of the president are deeply entrenched, and voters have already been exposed to a full presidential campaign’s worth of advertisements. Even in the plausibly competitive states where Team Romney ran uncontested advertisements, millions of dollars do not appear to have put the states into play. Given that Team Obama maintains a lead after being outspent by a two-to-one margin for two months, there is no reason to assume that a deluge of advertisements will hand Romney the lead in the race’s final hours.

Read the rest of Kilgore’s post right here.


Kilgore: Mendacity Is Romney’s Pre-Existing Condition

It’s unlikely that Romney’s ‘Meet the Press’ flip-floppage about Obamacare provisions and subsequent walkback surprised many observers. Indeed, the shocker would be if he took a strong position and held it for longer than a day or two. TDS Managing Editor Ed Kilgore sums up the GOP nominee’s latest flailing about in his aptly-titled post, “Mendacity is Romney’s Pre-Existing Condition” at The Washington Monthly:

To the surprise of no one who has been following Romney’s astonishingly twisted path on health care policy, staff were soon dispatched to “clarify” what Mitt meant, and it’s sure not what he implied on MTP: he’s confident the markets will offer policies covering young adults under their parents’ plans, and he’ll ensure some kind of coverage to people with pre-existing conditions who haven’t let their coverage lapse (a slice of the population largely covered under existing law); if his past statements are any indication, this will wind up meaning that such folk would be covered under the kind of crappy state risk pool plans that already provide poor coverage at crazy high prices.

As Kilgore concludes, “…this is one area of public policy where absolutely no one from Left to Right has any reason to believe a word he is saying.” You can read the rest of Kilgore’s post right here.