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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Month: July 2009

We Wuz Robbed!

One of the most important indicators of the health of a political party or movement is its ability to accept adverse results and learn from them. By that standard, Democrats faced the supreme challenge in 2000, when it took an unprecedented (and almost self-consciously political) intervention by the U.S. Supreme Court to finally deny the presidency to the winner of the popular vote.
Sure, some Democrats never got over what many just referred to, without need of explanation, as “Florida,” but most moved on, and it’s often said that the 2000 experience was–along with technology, and then later, the Iraq War–the prime mover in the creation of the entire netroots phenomenon.
Well, yesterday Republicans experienced a far less momentous and far less controversial setback in a close contest, when Norm Coleman finally conceded to Al Franken. And it’s significant that so many are not at all taking it well.
As Eric Kleefeld explained at TPM, the reaction to Franken’s elevation at Fox was very, very grouchy, perhaps reflecting bad blood going back to News Corp’s lawsuit against Franken in 2003.
Harder to explain on personal terms was the Wall Street Journal editorial that accused Franken of stealing the election, basically on grounds that Coleman had a whopping lead of 725 votes on Election Night and everything that happened subsequently was the devilish work of lawyers.
Such acts of denial are of a piece with the more general determination of conservatives to rationalize every recent political setback as “about” something other than their own leaders, policy positions, and ideological shibboleths. It is by this mental magic that George W. Bush, the hand-picked candidate of the conservative movement in 2000, and a president most conservatives were hailing as a world-historical colossus as late as 2005, becomes some sort of alien presence whose failures have no bearing on the future of “true” conservatism.
Without question, political defeats can make you crazy. But it’s very important to keep that insanity temporary. If I were a Republican, I’d be getting pretty worried by now about the ability of my comrades to perceive political reality without wild distortions.


Measuring Success

If there’s a “must-read” online today, it’s probably Tim Fernholz’s article for The American Prospect on the ever-increasing need for the Obama administration and the Democratic Congress to start setting out realistic benchmarks for accomplishments between now and November 2010.
Improving on the incompetence of the Bush administration isn’t that hard. But at some point, Democrats must point to new expectations and meet them. Fernholz suggests three areas where new benchmarks are particularly urgent: “economic stimulus” measures, foreclosure prevention initiatives, and the war in Afghanistan. In the first area, measurements for success are hazy; in the second, accomplishments don’t meet the administration’s own goals; and in the third, what we are measuring in terms of strategic objectives has changed.
Here’s Fernholz’s cautionary conclusion:

All three of these cases demonstrate the challenge of translating simple policy goals — fight the recession, prevent foreclosures, and win a war — into complex government programs. The fact that solving these public problems is difficult doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be tackled; the government is the only institution capable of tackling them. But walking the fine line between measures that mean something and numbers that mean votes can be a difficult one. If the president and Democrats in Congress want to keep being the Party of Government and not just the party that likes government, they need to figure out how to be good executives as well as good legislators, and prove it.


Palin Reconsidered

At virtually any given moment, the news-cycle-driven chattering classes of politics have in the background of their computer screens or the pockets of their briefcases a Big Thumbsucking Magazine Article on a political topic that they read during periods of calm. The Big Article du jour is Todd Purdum’s massive profile of Sarah Palin in Vanity Fair.
Most of the buzz about the piece deals with a variety of off-the-record snarks about Palin from McCain campaign staff. Indeed, conservative columnist Bill Kristol and McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt have engaged in a public exchange of insults over alleged leaks to Purdham.
Personally, I thought Purdum’s best insight was about the exceptionally exotic nature of Palin’s home state of Alaska, which he thinks the McCain campaign never understood:

The first thing McCain could have learned about Palin is what it means that she is from Alaska. More than 30 years ago, John McPhee wrote, “Alaska is a foreign country significantly populated with Americans. Its languages extend to English. Its nature is its own. Nothing seems so unexpected as the boxes marked ‘U.S. Mail.’” That description still fits. The state capital, Juneau, is 600 miles from the principal city, Anchorage, and is reachable only by air or sea. Alaskan politicians list the length of their residency in the state (if they were not born there) at the top of their biographies, and are careful to specify whether they like hunting, fishing, or both. There is little sense of government as an enduring institution: when the annual 90-day legislative session is over, the legislators pack up their offices, files, and computers, and take everything home. Alaska’s largest newspaper, the Anchorage Daily News, maintains no full-time bureau in Juneau to cover the statehouse. As in any resource-rich developing country with weak institutions and woeful oversight, corruption and official misconduct go easily unchecked. Scrutiny is not welcome, and Alaskans of every age and station, of every race and political stripe, unself-consciously refer to every other place on earth with a single word: Outside.

But what bothered me most about the profile was that with so many words to work with, and for all his focus on why McCain was a fool to put her on the ticket, Purdum never gets around to examining in any detail why the Conservative Base loves her so. That’s a strange omission, particularly since the whole piece begins with Palin’s speech earlier this year at an Indiana Right-to-Life event–significantly, her first public appearance outside Alaska in 2009.
In all the hype and buzz about Palin when she first joined the ticket, and all the silly talk about her potential appeal to Hillary Clinton supporters, the ecstatic reaction to her choice on the Cultural Right didn’t get much attention. She wasn’t an “unknown” or a “fresh face” to those folks. They knew her not only as a truly hard-line anti-abortionist, but as a politician who had uniquely “walked the walk” by carrying a pregnancy to term despite knowing the child would have a severe disability. And all the personality traits she later exhibited–the folksiness, the abrasive partisanship, the hostility towards the “media” and “elites,” the resentment of the establishment Republicans who tried to “manage” her, and the constant complaints of persecution–almost perfectly embodied the world-view, and the hopes and fears, of the grassroots Cultural Right. (This was particularly and understandably true of women, who have always played an outsized role in grassroots conservative activism.) Sarah Palin was the projection of these activists onto the national political scene, and exhibited the defiant pride and ill-disguised vulnerability that they would have felt in the same place.
This base of support for Palin–maybe not that large, but very passionate, and very powerful in places like the Iowa Republican Caucuses–isn’t going to abandon her just because the Serious People in the GOP laugh her off in favor of blow-dried flip-flopping pols like Mitt Romney or blandly “electable” figures like Tim Pawlenty. To her supporters, mockery is like nectar. And that’s why Sarah Palin isn’t going to go away as a national political figure unless it is by her own choice, or that of the people of her own state.


Senator Franken

When Al Franken takes his seat in the U.S. Senate on Monday, it could mark a pivot point for the Democratic Party, as well as the nation. Senator Franken will give the Democrats a significant edge in filibuster politics, the 60th vote that could make possible enactment of real health care reform and other needed legislation. Indications are Franken will be a staunch progressive Senator in the mold of Paul Wellstone, who he strongly supported, and a reliable advocate of needed social reforms.
Credit Franken, not only with running a good campaign that unhorsed an incumbent and rising GOP star, but also playing a chill hand in the 7 plus months after the election. Franken avoided getting suckered into name-calling battles with Coleman, kept a high tone and handled the media with impressive skill. His image as a sober and serious U.S. Senator improved steadily during the recount and post election conflicts, as Coleman’s image deteriorated into one of a quarrelsome obstructionist. Franken’s 5-zip win from the Minnesota Supreme Court sealed the deal. Coleman, rumored to be interested in running for Governor, would have destroyed his political future if he persisted after a unanimous state Supreme Court decision against him. Hopefully, he has already been damaged by his obstructionist antics.
Franken could be an important Senator, if he rises to the challenge presented by Wellstone’s example and becomes an energetic champion of the progressive agenda. He certainly showed he had the mettle for battling the right-wing in his conflicts with Bill O’Reilly and Fox news. Franken smartly restrained his SNL-honed snark and wit during the campaign and aftermath, but he should be able to let fly a well-targeted zinger once in a while to enliven Senate debates.


The Sixtieth Senator

The big political news yesterday was a unanimous decision of the Minnesota Supreme Court that Al Franken had indeed won a U.S. Senate seat last year (unsurprising), followed by Norm Coleman’s concession (more surprising, since many expected him to pursue a federal court challenge to delay Franken’s seating).
So Democrats now hold 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. As Ezra Klein points out today, neither party has held that many Senate seats since 1975, after the Watergate Landslide of 1974.
Most Democrats by now have figured out that 60 isn’t quite the magic number it is sometimes described as being in the Senate. Yes, it theoretically makes it possible to stop or even preempt filibusters and control the floor, but only with unanimity (or near-unanimity), which is hard to come by. But it will have a certain psychological impact, particularly going into an election cycle where Republican will be hard pressed to maintain their own numbers in the Senate.
Let’s hope, at least, that Al Franken really enjoys being a Senator. He certainly earned his seat.